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BEA

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11 days ago

15 days ago

Schedule for Week of June 29, 2025

The key report scheduled for this week is the June employment report to be released on Thursday.

Other key reports include the June ISM Manufacturing survey, June Vehicle Sales and the Trade Deficit…

16 days ago

Personal Income Decreased 0.4% in May; Spending Decreased 0.1%

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2025
Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Econo…

17 days ago

Q1 GDP Growth Revised down to -0.5% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent i…

18 days ago

May Vehicle Forecast: Sales "Subdued" at 15.0 million SAAR

From J.D. Power: June New-Vehicle Sales Subdued After Reverse of Tariff-Driven Rush to Showrooms; Retail Sales Rise 7.5% in First Half of 2025 Brief excerpt:
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (S…

25 days ago

FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Down, Inflation Revised Up

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  The projections are pretty bearish.
The BEA's advance estimate …

28 days ago

FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the …

34 days ago

Recession Watch Metrics

Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on r…

39 days ago

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