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2 days ago

Schedule for Week of June 22, 2025

The key reports this week are May New and Existing Home sales, the third estimate of Q1 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for May and the April Case-Shiller house price index.

For manufacturing, the …

4 days ago

Update: The Art of the Soft Landing

A year ago I wrote: The Art of the Soft Landing

A few excerpts and an updated graph ...
The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive…

FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Down, Inflation Revised Up

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  The projections are pretty bearish.
The BEA's advance estimate …

8 days ago

FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the …

12 days ago

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and i…

24 days ago

Personal Income increased 0.8% in April; Spending increased 0.2%

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025
Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Ec…

25 days ago

Q1 GDP Growth Revised up to -0.2% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), 1st Quarter 2025
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the f…

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