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13 days ago

Trump and Fed Policy

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a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Today President Trump put out a note urging Fed Chair Powell to lower rates.

The following image, courtesy of Conor Sen, shows the central bank rates around the world. Mr. Trump wrote:
Jerome, You …

16 days ago

Personal Income Decreased 0.4% in May; Spending Decreased 0.1%

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a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2025
Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Econo…

17 days ago

Q1 GDP Growth Revised down to -0.5% Annual Rate

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a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent i…

22 days ago

Schedule for Week of June 22, 2025

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a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

The key reports this week are May New and Existing Home sales, the third estimate of Q1 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for May and the April Case-Shiller house price index.

For manufacturing, the …

24 days ago

Update: The Art of the Soft Landing

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a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

A year ago I wrote: The Art of the Soft Landing

A few excerpts and an updated graph ...
The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive…

25 days ago

FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Down, Inflation Revised Up

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a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  The projections are pretty bearish.
The BEA's advance estimate …

28 days ago

FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

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a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the …

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