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The Secret of Trump’s Economic Message

The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com › politics › archive › 2024 › 10 › trump-economic-message-secret › 680264

When Donald Trump speaks about the economy, he sounds like a child. China gives us billions of dollars via tariffs. American auto workers take imported cars out of a box and stick the pieces together. These are very light paraphrases of statements he made today at the Economic Club of Chicago, in a sometimes combative interview with the Bloomberg editor in chief John Micklethwait.

Yet voters consistently say they trust Trump more to handle the economy than they do Kamala Harris. Why? Perhaps because, when Trump speaks about the economy, he sounds like a child. Yes, he has a reputation as a businessman, and voters consistently trust Republicans more on the issue (even though the economy fares better under Democrats). But Trump’s reductionism may be the real source of his appeal when it comes to the economy and other policy areas. (“Build the wall”; “make NATO pay their fair share.”) By restricting his discussion to the bluntest, broadest, and vaguest of terms, he sells an appealing illusion.

[David A. Graham: The fakest populism you ever saw]

“We’re all about growth,” he pronounced at the start of the interview, as though this were a bold, contrarian stance. A moment later, he added, “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff.”

Poor Micklethwait was no match for this. The former editor of The Economist put up a valiant effort, but he was bringing facts to a rhetoric fight. Micklethwait asked Trump about the cost of tariffs to the American economy, and Trump responded with a long “sir” story about a supposed friend named John who builds car factories. (“I will not give his last name, because he might not like it.”) Micklethwait asked about how a trade war would affect the 40 million American jobs that rely on trade, and Trump told stories about John Deere and a conversation he had with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. None of these answered the question, and it didn’t matter.

“You keep bringing up these individual examples, but the overall effect is going to be dramatic,” a frustrated Micklethwait said.

“I agree it will have a massive effect, positive,” Trump shot back.

When the interviewer asked whether a trade war would endanger relationships with allies, Trump rejected the premise of alliances. “Our allies have taken advantage of us, more so than our enemies,” he said. He praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and all but confirmed reporting by Bob Woodward that the men have remained in touch since he left office (“If I did, it’s a smart thing”), and deemed the poor pariah nation North Korea “a very serious power.”

Trying another tack, Micklethwait warned that a trade war could endanger the use of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, thus weakening American economic power. “If I’m elected, the dollar is so secure,” Trump said. “Your reserve currency is the strongest it’ll ever be.” He gave no explanation for what this could mean or why it might be true. But it sure sounds nice, doesn’t it?

The impulse to bluff comes from Trump’s many decades of business experience. For Trump the businessman, confidence and bombast have always been more important than facts and reason. This has generally worked out for Trump, who is, after all, a billionaire. But at times, it has been disastrous, as his four corporate bankruptcies demonstrate.

[Scott Lincicome and Sophia Bagley: Trump’s deranged plan to lower food prices by raising them]

Trump’s record as president is similarly mixed. He imposed some tariffs on China, but a deal he struck to encourage Chinese imports of American goods flopped. His trade war disproportionately disadvantaged his own supporters. He did not deliver on his promise to bring back manufacturing jobs. His main success was a broad tax cut. During the last year of his term, Trump saw the American economy collapse because of COVID, though he cannot take all of the blame for that.

Considering the former president’s checkered history, Micklethwait’s desire to probe him on the facts is understandable, but it’s also futile. Trump is selling a fantasy, not a white paper. As he repeatedly danced around the questions today, he joked about his oratorical approach: “I call it the weave. As long as you end up at the right location in the end.” Trump believes that the right location for him is the White House. The weave just might get him there again.

Dogs Are Entering a New Wave of Domestication

The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com › science › archive › 2024 › 10 › service-dog-domestication-behavior › 680240

Not so long ago, dogs were valued primarily for the jobs they performed. They hunted, herded livestock, and guarded property, which required them to have an active prey drive, boundless energy, and a wariness toward strangers. Even a few decades ago, many dogs were expected to guard the house and the people in it. Prey drive kept squirrels off the bird feeders and used up some of that boundless energy.

In just a generation, we humans have abruptly changed the rules on our dogs. With urbanization increasing and space at a premium, the wild, abandoned places where children and dogs used to roam have disappeared from many American communities. Dogs have gone from working all day and sleeping outside to relaxing on the couch and sleeping in our beds. They are more a part of our families than ever—which means they share our indoor, sedentary lifestyle. Americans once wanted a dog that barked at every noise, but modern life best suits a pet that will settle nicely under the desk during remote work, politely greet guests, make friends with cats, and play nice (but not hump) in the dog park.

Thousands of years of domestication couldn’t prepare dogs for this abrupt transition. However, after studying the cognition of 101 Canine Companion service-dog puppies at the Duke Puppy Kindergarten, we realized that these dogs are uniquely well adapted to life in the 21st century. Service dogs (the real, certified kind, not the ones whose humans bought their vests on Amazon) are highly trained professionals. They assist with specific tasks that their person cannot perform alone, such as helping to load laundry into the washer, turning on lights, and opening doors. Between all that effort, service dogs fit into the life of their person in a way that many able-bodied dog owners want their pets to fit into theirs. For the happiness of dogs and their owners, humans need to breed and train more dogs like service animals, embarking on a new wave of dog domestication to help them fit into the new world we have created.

The first dogs began evolving 40,000 to 14,000 years ago, when humans lived as foragers. (Some evidence suggests that this first version of domestication may have occurred multiple times around the world.) Our ancestors left garbage and waste outside of camp, and the wolves that took advantage of this predictable, energy-rich food source gained a survival edge. As a result, over generations, the animals’ attraction to humans replaced fear and aggression. This natural selection for friendliness is thought to have also caused many accidental changes—such as floppy ears, curly tails, and splotchy coats—as well as the ability to make eye contact and read human gestures in a way that wolves cannot.

[Read: A new origin story for dogs]

The second wave of dog domestication largely occurred after the Industrial Revolution, when the newly ascendant middle class wanted dogs that would advertise the good taste and disposable income of their owners. Armed with an early awareness of genetically inherited traits and an obsession with pedigree, Westerners began controlling dogs’ reproductive choices, leading to the creation of most of the 200 dog breeds recognized by the American Kennel Club today. Whereas previous breeding emphasized hunting or herding abilities, this new wave became primarily about a dog’s appearance. With a few exceptions, that is where dog enthusiasts’ focus has remained.

Until about the 1990s, these pedigreed dogs were well adapted to the suburban lifestyle. They spent most of their lives outside, perhaps jumping the fence and roaming the neighborhood. They might chase the occasional car or mailman, or even wander off for a day or two. Veterinary medication was not what it is today, and if your dog slept on your bed, you would likely wake up covered in ticks or fleas. But as more city dwellers adopt pets, and cultural shifts have led dogs and people to spend more time inside, some behaviors that made dogs appealing to our ancestors have become maladaptive. For instance, guarding against strange people and animals might make a dog more difficult to walk around the neighborhood—so it gets stuck in a small yard or a small apartment with tons of pent-up energy. Dogs that are more energetic, excitable, fearful, or anxious than average are more likely to be relinquished to shelters, where they may struggle to find a new home.

Many owners hope that simply choosing the right type of canine—a hypoallergenic breed, a smart breed, a breed that is supposedly good with children—will solve the mismatch between modern expectations and the evolved nature of dogs. But on the whole, breed does not determine the quantity of allergens an animal produces, the speed at which it learns, or how well it interacts with children. The main thing a dog’s breed will tell you, with any reliability, is what it looks like.

[Read: Humans can’t quit a basic myth about dog breeds]

Service dogs are the exception and the answer to the domestication puzzle. For more than a century, service dogs have had to sit quietly in a café, calmly negotiate the stress and noise of urban life, and interact gently with children. They can do this not because they are smarter than pet dogs, but because, like those early proto-dogs, service dogs are uniquely friendly. Unlike most pet dogs, service dogs are attracted to strangers, even as puppies. And increasing friendliness seems to have changed these dogs’ biology, just as it did thousands of years ago. A 2017 study found that Canine Companion dogs have a higher level of oxytocin—the hormone that facilitates social bonding—than pet dogs.

We believe these changes are the early signs of a third wave in dog domestication. Service dogs may look like your average Labrador retriever, but compared with military working dogs or even the average family Lab, they are almost a different breed. If dog lovers shift their demand from a dog’s hair color and tail length to their comfort with strangers and new places, this friendliness could quickly ripple through the population and become amplified with each successive generation. Russian experiments on fox domestication in the 1950s suggested that selecting for a friendly temperament led to an increased attraction to humans, wagging tails, floppy ears, and splotchy coats within just a decade—though the foxes that the experiment began with came from fur farms, and therefore weren’t entirely new to selective breeding. The differences between Canine Companion dogs and pet dogs also demonstrate how different a population of dogs can become in less than 50 years. Even if dog breeders were not as strict as the Russian fox experimenters, a breeding program that prioritizes a friendly temperament could show results within just a few decades.

In the meantime, as the third wave of domestication gets under way, humans must continue caring for the pets they have now. Service-dog organizations don’t just breed for friendliness but also follow an extensive training protocol. They socialize their puppies as soon as the puppies are vaccinated, introducing them to a range of people and situations. They crate-train them, getting them used to alone time. They use positive reinforcement to encourage good behavior and take the puppies for lots of short walks throughout the day. All of these methods can be applied at home—but to do it right is a lot of work. If you’re not prepared for that, don’t get a puppy. Instead, foster an adult dog. Puppy personalities change and grow with time, but with foster dogs, which are usually older and have established personalities, you can test if they are a good fit for your family before committing.

[Read: Pit bulls are chiller than chihuahuas]

And for those who already have a puppy or a dog that is less than perfect, be patient. Try to meet them where they are. Maybe they will never be comfortable romping in a park with strange people and dogs. Maybe guarding your window ledge from every passing squirrel is a responsibility they’re unable to surrender. Instead of trying to force them to change, which probably won’t work, acknowledge that modern life asks more of dogs than evolution prepared them for. Try to focus on the timeless skills that dogs already have: joyful greetings, love free from expectations, and a light spirit to brighten your days.