With last year’s slow-roll Oppenheimer sweep, the leading Oscar contenders seemed to have sewn up their wins long before the ceremony began. This edition of the Academy Awards has been quite the compelling scramble by comparison, as half a dozen movies have gained and lost supposed front-runner status over the past few months. A couple of smash hits at the box office (Wicked and Dune: Part Two) scored a clutch of nominations, while comparatively cult hits The Substance and Emilia Pérez have commanded their own factions of support. (Emilia Pérez’s chances at the big trophies appear to have slipped in recent weeks, however, because of external controversies.) But the real battle for Best Picture has been among a handful of well-received grown-up dramas, none of which has risen above the rest as the obvious pick: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Conclave.

The four movies do not feel like traditional Oscar favorites, though A Complete Unknown (a music biopic about Bob Dylan) and Conclave (a gossipy drama about the selection of a new pope) come closest. The Brutalist, an epic tale of a Hungarian architect struggling for artistic freedom in postwar America, is the kind of grand-scale drama that evokes past Best Picture winners such as The Godfather, but the film’s knotty subject matter and extended length have made it polarizing. Anora, meanwhile, has leapt into the driver’s seat just ahead of Sunday’s ceremony with some crucial award-season gains. The downside is that the shaggy romantic dramedy, about a sex worker’s turbulent love affair with a Russian oligarch’s kid, might be too raunchy for the average Academy voter’s tastes.

Keeping in mind the unusually diffuse nature of this year, here are my best guesses as to who will triumph in the eight most competitive categories at the 2025 Academy Awards—and who I believe deserves the accolades.

Best Actress

Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Although Madison fits a conventional Oscar-winning mold in this category—the ingénue coming into her own—this trophy is likely Moore’s to lose. Her performance in The Substance earned her the Best Actress prize at the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild Awards, and Critics Choice Awards this year, three of the four biggest precursor ceremonies. (The other major event is the BAFTA Film Awards, handed out by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts, which gave its nod to Madison.) Moore’s work in the gooey, extreme horror satire was lauded for both its bravery and its meta-narrative; the film comments on the brutality that aging actresses face in Hollywood, which is something that’s certainly affected Moore’s own career. Her heartfelt, proud speeches on the campaign trail have doubtless helped as well.

I think her biggest competition comes from Torres, whose subtle but devastating turn in the Brazilian historical drama I’m Still Here—as a woman whose husband was “disappeared” by the military dictatorship running the country—vaulted the movie to a surprise Best Picture nod. But Moore’s name recognition should carry her over the line.

Who Will Win: Demi Moore

Who Ought to Win: Fernanda Torres

Best Actor

Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Since The Brutalist’s release, Brody has been the front-runner for his intense work as the fictional architect László Tóth. It’s a comeback role of sorts for the onetime Best Actor winner, who has gone through major career ups and downs since his surprise win (for The Pianist) two decades ago. Brody is wonderful in the role and could easily take the award; still, I have wondered whether the fact that he already has an Oscar will work against him—repeat winners in this category are rare. That could leave space for Chalamet, who has received plaudits for his convincing Bob Dylan impersonation—including the SAG Award, in the last major ceremony before the Oscars—and is one of Hollywood’s most captivating young leading men.

I think every nominee in this category is very strong, but my personal pick is Stan. He delivered two wonderfully distinct performances in The Apprentice (as a younger Donald Trump) and A Different Man (a brilliantly surreal indie comedy) in 2024; he deservedly won the Golden Globe for the latter last month.

Who Will Win: Timothée Chalamet

Who Ought to Win: Sebastian Stan

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

The Emilia Pérez blowback has largely focused on the social-media postings of its lead actress, Gascón. Meanwhile, her co-star Saldaña has been the predicted Supporting Actress winner since awards season began in earnest, and she’s never really lost momentum. Saldaña arguably had the most difficult role in the French-made, Spanish-language crime musical, anchoring much of its complex exposition; she’s also a well-known Hollywood figure who has appeared in some of the industry’s biggest franchises (Avatar, Marvel, and Star Trek).

I would love to see a career win for Rossellini (doing a lot with a little in Conclave), and I thought Grande handled the humor of her Wicked role with aplomb. I was most astonished by Barbaro’s work as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown, however, which somehow met the impossible challenge of replicating the folk singer’s incredible voice and stage presence.

Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña

Who Ought to Win: Monica Barbaro

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

This is another field where basically every nominee would be a deserving winner. Pearce, like Brody, is experiencing something of a career renaissance following his turn in The Brutalist; he plays the preening, villainous patron of Brody’s character. Norton played against type as the well-meaning Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown. Strong’s interpretation of Roy Cohn in The Apprentice was tragicomic and frightening stuff. Borisov, a Russian actor, was the standout of the great ensemble in Anora. But the award has belonged to Culkin since A Real Pain debuted at Sundance more than a year ago; his emotionally overwrought, acidly funny turn and voters’ carried-over appreciation for Succession have seen him scoop up every major trophy ahead of the Oscars.

Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin

Who Ought to Win: Guy Pearce? Jeremy Strong? Edward Norton? Take your pick!

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Sean Baker (Anora); Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold (The Brutalist); Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain); Moritz Binder, Alex David, and Tim Fehlbaum (September 5); Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

This race seems to be a 50–50 split, based on which films have won this prize elsewhere. On the one hand, prognosticators have deemed Anora the Best Picture favorite, so it should pick up additional trophies on the way to the big one. (It’s up for six total at the Academy Awards; Editing is another category it could secure.) On the other hand, A Real Pain is the kind of smarty-pants, dialogue-heavy stuff that often wins for Screenplay; plus, it’s written by the film’s director and star, Jesse Eisenberg, who’s already a known Oscar quantity. I think A Real Pain will edge the win—but I don’t feel confident about it.

Who Will Win: A Real Pain

Who Ought to Win: Anora

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: James Mangold and Jay Cocks (A Complete Unknown); Peter Straughan (Conclave); Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi (Emilia Pérez); RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes (Nickel Boys); Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield (Sing Sing)

Unlike any of the films in its sister category, Conclave looks to have Adapted Screenplay in the bag. Straughan translated Robert Harris’s best seller into a tightly wound, effectively plotted little thriller that’s all in the dialogue. As a work of adaptation, it’s neat yet not particularly ambitious stuff, following the contours of the book closely. I’d be much more excited by recognition for Nickel Boys, which found an unconventional and bold way to bring the author Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer-winning novel to the screen.

Who Will Win: Conclave

Who Ought to Win: Nickel Boys

Best Director

Nominees: Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

The only question when it comes to Best Director is whether it’ll diverge from Best Picture—as is more and more common at the Oscars these days. It’s happened four times in the past 10 years. This year’s race is so tight—Corbet and Baker have both won at the other big events thus far—that I’ll cautiously predict a split, with Corbet’s maximalist approach triumphing here. I wouldn’t be stunned by Baker winning the Oscar, though; in fact, he has the chance to win four trophies total (Picture, Director, Screenplay and Editing). He’d be a solid choice for any of them.

Who Will Win: Brady Corbet

Who Ought to Win: Sean Baker

Best Picture

Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

At first, Emilia Pérez came across as the lead contender because it was the biggest nomination-getter. But swirling controversy, combined with its generally divisive status among critics and audiences, has taken it down a notch. Then, I figured The Brutalist told the kind of old-school story that would resonate most with voters; its distributor A24’s canny campaign also put it in theaters late in December, traditionally an awards-season sweet spot, and made it quite the hot ticket. In just the previous few weeks, though, Anora won a bunch of big trophies—from the Critics Choice Awards, the Producers Guild, and the Directors Guild—that seemingly marked it as the easy Academy favorite. A final wrinkle has now come late in the race: The dependable, likable Conclave won two significant trophies, the BAFTA for Best Film and the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Ensemble, akin to “best movie” from that voting body. Could that film sneak in as the consensus pick ahead of the spikier material surrounding it? I’ll still pick Anora by a nose, but it’s a bet worth hedging.

The best movie of the year, of course, is RaMell Ross’s innovative, inventive, deeply empathetic Nickel Boys—which got two deserved nods. But the film might have kept some voters at a distance with its unusual storytelling approach, as its critical acclaim hasn’t helped it earn many prime honors.

Who Will Win: Anora

Who Ought to Win: Nickel Boys

In the years since it began a committed effort to diversify and expand its membership, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has weathered strikes, the pandemic shutdown of theaters, and constant hand-wringing about declining TV ratings and potential cultural irrelevance. But one trend has remained consistent for the Academy Awards, the voting body’s annual big event: The Academy has been getting more and more international. This year’s nominations, announced today (six days later than planned, after a delay in recognition of the horrific Los Angeles fires), confirmed the extent to which Oscar voters’ tastes have shifted. The French-produced, Spanish-language musical Emilia Pérez received the most nominations of the day, accompanied by several other movies that premiered—and were big hits—at European film festivals.

The Academy nominated 10 films for Best Picture, leaving room for some of the biggest blockbusters of last year. The musical Wicked (10 nominations) and the sci-fi sequel Dune: Part Two (five nominations) were two of 2024’s highest-grossing films, racking up hundreds of millions more in box-office grosses than most of the other Oscar contenders. But if you want to gauge the true awards favorites, looking at the Best Director category, where only five hopefuls get picked, is usually more useful. Each of this year’s directors is a first-time nominee in the category, and four worked on features that mainstream moviegoers might consider unorthodox: Alongside the filmmaker Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, there’s the indie darling Sean Baker’s Anora, a raunchy dramedy about a sex worker; the actor turned filmmaker Brady Corbet’s 215-minute historical drama, The Brutalist; and the relative newcomer Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance, one of the few horror films in the Academy Awards’ history to resonate with voters. The writer-director James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown—a musical biopic that’s seen as conventionally attractive Oscar fare—stands out as the anomaly of the group. That Mangold’s film was also the only one to skip the international-festival circuit further suggests a turning tide for the Academy’s preferences.

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But Emilia Peréz, which debuted at the Cannes Film Festival last year, is a unique case among those five front-runners—it’s a Netflix-branded movie. The streamer has spent years striving for the Best Picture title, only to narrowly miss out again and again. Netflix made what seemed to be likely bets over the past half decade with Roma, The Irishman, Mank, The Power of the Dog, All Quiet on the Western Front, and Maestro, and over and over again, Netflix’s most prestigious work has gotten a ton of nominations but walked away without the biggest trophy. (In the cases of Roma and The Power of the Dog, the company at least left with the consolation of Best Director.) That track record is partly because of Netflix’s tendency toward backing fairly artsy, auteur-driven movies; the hope apparently has been that a director such as Martin Scorsese and David Fincher would be enough to draw viewers and votes. But the paltry Oscar showing thus far is likely also because, as a streaming-first studio that remains fairly hostile to cinematic releases, Netflix has a more polarizing status in Hollywood than most of its peers.

Could Emilia Pérez be the contender to break that streak? If so, it’ll be a slightly confounding win that could spark another thousand think pieces about the Academy’s continued drift from popular opinion. It’s a non-Hollywood film with very little English dialogue, a gonzo musical about a Mexican cartel leader (played by Karla Sofía Gascón) who fakes her death, transitions into a woman, and then tries to build a more authentic life. Emilia Pérez won major accolades at Cannes, but its post-festival reception has been more muted; it has weathered waves of backlash from multiple sides since its November debut on Netflix. The company has pushed all of its resources into the movie anyway, clearly seeing the potential for nabbing the big prize in a diffuse field; it’s already triumphed at the Golden Globes. But Netflix has come close and missed before, so it’s perhaps too early to be bullish on Emilia Pérez’s chances.

Netflix’s biggest challenger appears to be the distributor A24. The independent company acquired The Brutalist after its successful debut at the Venice Film Festival. The movie is a large-scale American epic made for a comparatively small budget, a supersize film (with an intermission) about topics that have resonated with Oscar voters for decades: tortured male geniuses, the long shadow of World War II and the Holocaust, the struggle of art against commerce. It’s an excellent film, as well as the kind of big movie that has won Best Picture many times. A24 mounted a slow Christmas rollout as a way to build buzz with not just critics but audiences too, including putting the movie on IMAX screens. The plan has worked thus far, and the breadth of awards-season attention, including Oscar nominations for all three main cast members—Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, and Guy Pearce—might be enough to take the movie all the way. But simmering backlash to The Brutalist’s knottier second act—and, to a lesser extent, some scuttlebutt regarding the use of AI—could do it in; that the feature peaks about halfway through has become something of a prevailing opinion.

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The other big favorites will probably have to settle for slightly less notable trophies. Anora won the Cannes equivalent of Best Picture and has received a slew of other awards nominations, but after getting passed over at the Golden Globes, it somehow feels like an outside shot in every category (except maybe Original Screenplay for Baker). Wicked was an audience sensation that got warm reviews (if not outright raves), but it seems competitive only for the design trophies. Conclave, a robust grown-up drama about the Vatican choosing a new pope, missed a predicted slot in Best Director, suggesting a broad sense of “liked but didn’t love” among voters. Dune: Part Two will be treated as its predecessor was: a technical achievement, first and foremost.

Two smaller-scale nominees that snuck into Best Picture, I’m Still Here and Nickel Boys, benefited from passionate reviews and well-run campaigns by their respective distributors, Sony Pictures Classics and Amazon MGM Studios. Another competitor, The Substance, sustained its festival buzz with a solid box-office run; pundits’ worries that its lurid material might be too polarizing for staid awards voters have now been swept away, and the lead actor, Demi Moore—who won a Golden Globe for her performance earlier this month—looks like the top candidate for the Best Actress trophy. Meanwhile, two films that debuted and played well at North American film festivals—and which critics assumed were in Best Picture contention—ended up just missing out: A Real Pain, which was still nominated for Best Supporting Actor (the recent Golden Globe winner Kieran Culkin is a favorite) and Original Screenplay, and Sing Sing (which got three other nominations, including Best Actor for its star, Colman Domingo).

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The one movie that defies many of the trends among this year’s Oscar crop—particularly its lean toward a more international, film-festival-friendly lineup of nominees—is A Complete Unknown, as old-fashioned an Oscar picture as they come. It’s an American-produced biopic from a reliable, well-liked filmmaker (James Mangold) featuring a major star (Timothée Chalamet) playing a national icon (Bob Dylan); it’s largely traditional but with a slightly arty twist. Critics and theatergoers alike have praised the movie, and Chalamet in particular has enjoyed a great year: Between a buzzy press tour and his starring turn in fellow Best Picture nom Dune: Part Two, he appears to be well positioned to earn Best Actor. But in the end, Chalamet might be too “normie” for the big trophy. That reading stands in stark contrast to the Oscars of even 10 or so years ago, when the Academy favored movies such as Argo and Spotlight, mature Hollywood dramas that told well-known true stories in effective ways. This year’s ceremony, to be hosted by Conan O’Brien on March 2, will demonstrate just how much that consensus has shifted.

*Lead image credit: Illustration by Allison Zaucha / The Atlantic. Sources: Sony Pictures Classics; A24; Page 114 / Why Not Productions / Pathé Films / France 2 Cinéma; Bettmann / Getty.

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