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Somewhere, Richard Nixon is raging with envy. Nixon was twice left for politically dead, after the 1960 presidential election and then the 1962 California governor’s race, but Watergate proved too much for even him to overcome. (Not that he didn’t try, as Elizabeth Drew reported in The Atlantic in 2014.)

Andrew Cuomo, inheritor of Nixon’s resting scowl face, may have found a way to do what the 37th president couldn’t: come back from an apparently career-ending scandal. Over the weekend, the Democrat launched a campaign for mayor of New York, and polling right now shows him with a wide lead, thanks to the corruption allegations plaguing the incumbent and newly minted Donald Trump ally Eric Adams.

The idea that Cuomo is the man to clean things up, however, is ridiculous. He was forced to step down as governor of New York in 2021 after revelations that his administration covered up mishandling of COVID and multiple allegations of sexual harassment. (Cuomo has denied wrongdoing but did admit to instances that were “misinterpreted as unwanted flirtation.”) Cuomo’s candidacy is an indictment of New York City politics: A city so eager to tell the rest of us how great it is should be able to produce a better class of mayoral contender (a point made pithily by The Onion with this parody headline: “De Blasio: ‘Well, Well, Well, Not So Easy to Find a Mayor That Doesn’t Suck Shit, Huh?’”).

The nascent comeback is also a sign of the weird amnesia some Americans seem to have developed about the past few years. After his resignation, Cuomo followed his brother, Chris, into the media, launching a podcast where he assailed cancel culture. The implication was that he was a victim; his reemergence as a candidate suggests that the podcast successfully spread that idea, but Cuomo is a victim of nothing except his own bad behavior.

In the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic, Cuomo’s clear, consistent briefings made him a media star, and they provided a counter to then-President Trump’s erratic statements. As it turned out, though, New York wasn’t especially effective at fighting the virus, and Cuomo’s administration went to great lengths to cover up the number of deaths in nursing homes.

Then, in August 2021, the state attorney general’s office released an investigation finding that “Governor Cuomo sexually harassed current and former state employees in violation of both federal and state laws.” The probe found 11 credible accusers who brought allegations against Cuomo.. He denied wrongdoing, though he admitted to making at least some of the alleged statements. “I acknowledge some of the things I have said have been misinterpreted as an unwanted flirtation. To the extent anyone felt that way, I am truly sorry about that,” he said.

It is true, and irrelevant, that Cuomo was not ultimately charged with any crimes. The facts in either of these scandals still ought to disqualify him from holding public office, and his resurrection represents a failure of the Democratic Party.

“Parties help to make political choices legible for voters, and, even more importantly, they organize politicians in pursuit of collective policy goals,” Jacob M. Grumbach, a political scientist at UC Berkeley who studies state-level politics, wrote to me in an email. The system is working if “the goals of the group come before the ambitions of individual politicians,” Grumbach said. The Democratic Party knows there are potential candidates who would be better than Cuomo for the party as a whole, but it’s “unable to coordinate to stop Cuomo from using his political capital to enter and likely win the NYC mayoral elections,” he said.

Instead, Democrats seem to be either acquiescing or openly backing him. Representative Ritchie Torres, a young moderate who has become prominent for criticizing the party’s progressive wing, endorsed Cuomo—in an exclusive given to the conservative New York Post, no less—as someone who would battle extremists on the left and right. Torres refused to “relitigate” Cuomo’s resignation, telling the Post: “America loves a comeback, New York loves a comeback.” Okay, but doesn’t it matter who’s doing the comeback, and what they’re coming back from? Cuomo is likely benefiting from a broader societal backlash to cancel culture and “wokeness.” But if, in order to curb the far left, Democrats like Torres are willing to embrace an alleged sex pest who tried to cover up seniors’ deaths, is it worth it?

This kind of selective amnesia about the recent past is not exclusive to New York or to politics—it’s afflicting many areas of American culture. The film director Brett Ratner, who faced multiple credible accusations of sexual harassment and misconduct in 2017 (which he denied, and for which he wasn’t charged), released a documentary about First Lady Melania Trump that received a reported $40 million licensing fee from Amazon. Jon Gruden, a football coach who was forced to resign for emails that used homophobic language, among other things, has been restored to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Ring of Honor. The late Pete Rose, who in 2022 blithely dismissed the allegation of having had a sexual relationship with a 14- or 15-year-old girl by telling a reporter, “It was 55 years ago, babe,” is in line for a presidential pardon and possible reinstatement in Major League Baseball after he was barred for gambling.

But politics is where voters and institutions seem most ready to ignore the past. As my colleague Jonathan Chait wrote last week, the whimpering end of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Trump’s ties to Russia has led many on the center and left to pretend that no scandal existed. “But even the facts Mueller was able to produce, despite noncooperation from Trump’s top lieutenants, were astonishing,” Jonathan wrote.

In some Trump-related cases, his administration is trying to force the country to forget what happened. The most maddening of the Trump scandals was his alleged hoarding of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago. The president escaped a trial on the case by winning the election, but the basic facts were not really in dispute: He possessed boxes and boxes of documents, he had no credible claim to them, and he didn’t give them back when asked to by the government. Now the FBI has handed the materials back over to Trump. And as my colleague Quinta Jurecic recently wrote, Trump and his administration are trying (in vain) to pretend that the January 6 insurrection never happened, yanking down government webpages and issuing pardons.

At the peak of social-justice activism in America, critics complained that pulling down statues of Confederates or removing the names of tarnished figures from institutions was tantamount to erasing history. Now, as the movement wanes, a different message is emerging: Some parts of history are apparently fine to erase.

Related:

Portrait of a leader humblebragging (From 2021) January 6 still happened.

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Martin Baron: Where Jeff Bezos went wrong with The Washington Post Trump’s cultural revolution The man who would remake Europe Conan O’Brien understood the assignment.

Today’s News

Donald Trump said that 25 percent tariffs will be imposed on Canada and Mexico tomorrow, and that there is “no room left” for last-minute deals. In the first full month of Trump’s presidency, the number of migrants illegally crossing America’s southern border hit a new low not seen in at least 25 years, according to preliminary government data obtained by CBS News. Israel will stop all humanitarian aid from entering Gaza until Hamas accepts the new terms for an extension of the cease-fire agreement, Israeli officials said yesterday.

Dispatches

Work in Progress: With the best intentions, the United Kingdom engineered a housing and energy shortage that broke its economy, Derek Thompson writes. The Wonder Reader: Shan Wang compiled Atlantic articles about why the egg is a miracle.

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Evening Read

lllustration by Katherine Lam

Migrants Prepare to Lose Their American Lives

By Stephanie McCrummen

At a Mexican restaurant, the owner stashed newly laminated private signs under the host stand, ready to slap on the walls of the kitchen and a back dining room where workers could hide if agents arrived without a proper warrant.

Inside a house nearby, a woman named Consuelo went to the living-room window and checked the street for unusual cars, then checked the time as her undocumented husband left for work, calculating when he was supposed to arrive at the suburban country club where he’d worked for 27 years, where he’d earned an “all-star” employee award, and which now felt like enemy territory. She lit the first prayer candle of the day.

Read the full article.

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Culture Break

Illustration by The Atlantic. Sources: NEON; Patrick T. Fallon / Getty; Trae Patton.

Watch. Anora (available to rent online) swept the Oscars, proving that Hollywood’s biggest night can still recognize indie movies, David Sims writes.

Examine. The trend known as “anti-fan art” hinges on irony: The creators’ best works are inspired by the pop culture they disdain, Shirley Li writes.

Play our daily crossword.

P.S.

If I invoke the musical style called Americana, who comes to mind? Jeff Tweedy? Tyler Childers? Jason Isbell? As Giovanni Russonello wrote in 2013, the genre is heavily white and male, in contrast to its influences. I’ve been listening a lot over the past week to “Cry Baby,” a song by Sunny War that features Valerie June. It’s a summit of two young Black women from Tennessee who are making music—and a reminder that there’s no American music, or Americana, without Black music. Sunny War’s Anarchist Gospel was one of my favorite records of 2023, and Armageddon in a Summer Dress, which features “Cry Baby,” is one of my favorites of 2025 so far.

— David

Stephanie Bai contributed to this newsletter.

When you buy a book using a link in this newsletter, we receive a commission. Thank you for supporting The Atlantic.

The whirlwind drama wins five prizes, including best actress for 25-year-old newcomer Mikey Madison.

The director Sean Baker probably didn’t predict this outcome  while he was filming Anora, his latest small-budget indie project, in the snowy Brooklyn neighborhood of Brighton Beach—that a couple years later, he’d be accepting Best Picture at the Academy Awards. It was one of five prizes that his spiky indie dramedy collected on Hollywood’s biggest night. After a drawn-out awards season in which the biggest contenders seemed often in flux, Anora dominated at a fun if elongated Oscars ceremony.  This year’s Best Picture winner also took home Best Director, Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Editing. Four of those trophies went to Baker, tying a record for individual wins in a night with the legendary Walt Disney; Anora’s young star Mikey Madison received the Best Actress trophy, in a fairly shocking upset over the widely tipped-to-win Demi Moore.

Anora is an unconventional Oscar juggernaut. As Baker reminded audiences from the stage, it’s a true indie picture, made for $6 million and with no huge names in the cast. But after  a triumphant debut at last year’s Cannes Film Festival, where it won the coveted Palme D’Or, Anora continued marching toward industry-wide recognition. The movie’s success is the culmination of a career that’s seen Baker making the most of shoestring budgets and filming whole movies on an iPhone. But Anora—which bested blockbuster heavyweights like Wicked and traditional awards fare like A Complete Unknown—was an especially incongruous winner this year, as it received its flowers during a notably old-school Academy Awards ceremony. This year’s show reminded me of the extravagant, zingy celebrations of cinema from my youth, with a highly competent host leading the viewer through nearly four hours of speeches, montages, and musical numbers.

[Read: The filmmaker who wants to wake us from the American dream]

Some might see the event’s duration as a problem. Indeed, concerns over the Oscars’ length have led to some strange truncations of the show in recent years. (Remember in 2022 when the producers cut some awards categories from the live broadcast, presenting them before it began?) This year reused the 2024 ceremony’s fairly ingenious solution to the runtime problem: Just start the whole shebang earlier. The live broadcast started at 4 p.m. in Los Angeles, which meant even the comparably roomy proceedings wrapped up during primetime on the east coast. And though some familiar causes of bloat, such as performances of each of the Best Song nominees, were absent, nature abhors a vacuum and this year’s showrunners found plenty of other superfluous moments to include.

To be clear: I think the excess is great. The Oscars should be long, indulgent, and for the fans; the ceremony happens once a year, and it should be staged at the same absurd scale as something like the Super Bowl. Any attempt to impose rigor and order on them tends to backfire in some unexpected way anyway. This year, the show’s 97th edition, there was very little tweaking to the proven formula. Conan O’Brien served as emcee, about as seasoned a choice imaginable for a first-time host, and he did exactly what an Oscar host is supposed to do: tell pithy jokes about the nominees, do a couple of silly, scripted bits, and otherwise keep things moving with a smile on his face. O’Brien has been a pro at that sort of thing since I was in elementary school.

The choice of O’Brien as host also set the expectation that this was probably not going to be a politically charged Oscars. The comedian’s brand is more focused on irreverence than commentary; he offered one glancing gag noting that Anora is about “standing up to a powerful Russian,” but little else in that vein.. He took a couple of cheerful swipes at the Best Actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón over her past inflammatory tweets, but otherwise steered clear of Oscar politicking, too; this was not a night where it felt like an attendee might take the stage to slap a presenter. Instead, the tone was self-serious, yet still fun, as exemplified by musical numbers celebrating the leading ladies of Wicked, the recently deceased producer Quincy Jones, and the James Bond franchise.

[Read: Conan O’Brien understood the assignment]

These segments were conceptually loose—why was The Substance star Margaret Qualley suddenly onstage jerking her limbs to Paul McCartney’s Bond theme song “Live or Let Die”? I couldn’t really tell you, but the moment felt like the kind of forgettable, florid nonsense that graces even the most polished of Oscar ceremonies. Every year, the show’s producers try to think of new ways to celebrate movies, but the hoariest methods are usually best. There were some playful twists this year, however, such as performers addressing craft-award nominees directly to spotlight their work, or the stage opening up to reveal the orchestra playing the nominated scores.

But largely, Oscar night was pleasantly familiar, a respite after years of relatively chaotic ceremonies. This year’s event did have a little more pep to it than last year, when Oppenheimer swept the big awards, however. Several films picked up trophies: Behind Anora in number of wins was The Brutalist, which ended up taking three categories (Best Actor, Best Cinematography, and Best Score). Dune: Part Two and Wicked each earned two technical trophies, while Emilia Pérez, the nomination leader, won for Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Song. Emilia Pérez’s turnout in particular was a fall from seeming dominance, perhaps precipitated by Gascón’s controversy.

Or perhaps not. Anora reigned supreme at many of the guild awards that presage the Oscars, which tend to be the best predictors of these things. Despite the film’s offbeat subject matter—about a sex worker who impulsively marries a Russian oligarch’s son—and its screenplay filled with hectoring insults and curse words, Anora is a screwball romantic comedy at its heart. Its story clearly spoke to the widest swathe of voters, even if many pundits predicted that the tonier, more highfaluting adult drama Conclave would emerge as a consensus winner. (That film, about a Papal conclave gathering to select a new Pope, had to make do with a sole win for Adapted Screenplay.)

Baker, a chipper presence each time that he took the stage, passionately read from a piece of paper for his Best Director win. He argued for the primacy of the theatrical experience, a message that he’s been pushing throughout this awards season. Intentionally or not, the show around him was doing the same, harkening back to an older Oscars vibe—before streaming cinema and shortened cinematic “windows” were a problem anyone in the audience had to deal with. Anora is currently one of the lowest-grossing Best Picture winners ever, but its $15 million domestic gross is a relative success for such a small-scale work in this day and age. Baker’s hope, which is one I share, is that his Oscar success will spur studios to re-evaluate the importance of both the moviegoing experience and art that reaches beyond big-budget homogeny. The Oscars, amidst all their silliness, remain one of the best ways  to get people watching interesting films of all sizes.

Anora sweeps the Oscars with five awards including best picture and best actress for star Mikey Madison.

With last year’s slow-roll Oppenheimer sweep, the leading Oscar contenders seemed to have sewn up their wins long before the ceremony began. This edition of the Academy Awards has been quite the compelling scramble by comparison, as half a dozen movies have gained and lost supposed front-runner status over the past few months. A couple of smash hits at the box office (Wicked and Dune: Part Two) scored a clutch of nominations, while comparatively cult hits The Substance and Emilia Pérez have commanded their own factions of support. (Emilia Pérez’s chances at the big trophies appear to have slipped in recent weeks, however, because of external controversies.) But the real battle for Best Picture has been among a handful of well-received grown-up dramas, none of which has risen above the rest as the obvious pick: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Conclave.

The four movies do not feel like traditional Oscar favorites, though A Complete Unknown (a music biopic about Bob Dylan) and Conclave (a gossipy drama about the selection of a new pope) come closest. The Brutalist, an epic tale of a Hungarian architect struggling for artistic freedom in postwar America, is the kind of grand-scale drama that evokes past Best Picture winners such as The Godfather, but the film’s knotty subject matter and extended length have made it polarizing. Anora, meanwhile, has leapt into the driver’s seat just ahead of Sunday’s ceremony with some crucial award-season gains. The downside is that the shaggy romantic dramedy, about a sex worker’s turbulent love affair with a Russian oligarch’s kid, might be too raunchy for the average Academy voter’s tastes.

Keeping in mind the unusually diffuse nature of this year, here are my best guesses as to who will triumph in the eight most competitive categories at the 2025 Academy Awards—and who I believe deserves the accolades.

Best Actress

Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Although Madison fits a conventional Oscar-winning mold in this category—the ingénue coming into her own—this trophy is likely Moore’s to lose. Her performance in The Substance earned her the Best Actress prize at the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild Awards, and Critics Choice Awards this year, three of the four biggest precursor ceremonies. (The other major event is the BAFTA Film Awards, handed out by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts, which gave its nod to Madison.) Moore’s work in the gooey, extreme horror satire was lauded for both its bravery and its meta-narrative; the film comments on the brutality that aging actresses face in Hollywood, which is something that’s certainly affected Moore’s own career. Her heartfelt, proud speeches on the campaign trail have doubtless helped as well.

I think her biggest competition comes from Torres, whose subtle but devastating turn in the Brazilian historical drama I’m Still Here—as a woman whose husband was “disappeared” by the military dictatorship running the country—vaulted the movie to a surprise Best Picture nod. But Moore’s name recognition should carry her over the line.

Who Will Win: Demi Moore

Who Ought to Win: Fernanda Torres

Best Actor

Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Since The Brutalist’s release, Brody has been the front-runner for his intense work as the fictional architect László Tóth. It’s a comeback role of sorts for the onetime Best Actor winner, who has gone through major career ups and downs since his surprise win (for The Pianist) two decades ago. Brody is wonderful in the role and could easily take the award; still, I have wondered whether the fact that he already has an Oscar will work against him—repeat winners in this category are rare. That could leave space for Chalamet, who has received plaudits for his convincing Bob Dylan impersonation—including the SAG Award, in the last major ceremony before the Oscars—and is one of Hollywood’s most captivating young leading men.

I think every nominee in this category is very strong, but my personal pick is Stan. He delivered two wonderfully distinct performances in The Apprentice (as a younger Donald Trump) and A Different Man (a brilliantly surreal indie comedy) in 2024; he deservedly won the Golden Globe for the latter last month.

Who Will Win: Timothée Chalamet

Who Ought to Win: Sebastian Stan

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

The Emilia Pérez blowback has largely focused on the social-media postings of its lead actress, Gascón. Meanwhile, her co-star Saldaña has been the predicted Supporting Actress winner since awards season began in earnest, and she’s never really lost momentum. Saldaña arguably had the most difficult role in the French-made, Spanish-language crime musical, anchoring much of its complex exposition; she’s also a well-known Hollywood figure who has appeared in some of the industry’s biggest franchises (Avatar, Marvel, and Star Trek).

I would love to see a career win for Rossellini (doing a lot with a little in Conclave), and I thought Grande handled the humor of her Wicked role with aplomb. I was most astonished by Barbaro’s work as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown, however, which somehow met the impossible challenge of replicating the folk singer’s incredible voice and stage presence.

Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña

Who Ought to Win: Monica Barbaro

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

This is another field where basically every nominee would be a deserving winner. Pearce, like Brody, is experiencing something of a career renaissance following his turn in The Brutalist; he plays the preening, villainous patron of Brody’s character. Norton played against type as the well-meaning Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown. Strong’s interpretation of Roy Cohn in The Apprentice was tragicomic and frightening stuff. Borisov, a Russian actor, was the standout of the great ensemble in Anora. But the award has belonged to Culkin since A Real Pain debuted at Sundance more than a year ago; his emotionally overwrought, acidly funny turn and voters’ carried-over appreciation for Succession have seen him scoop up every major trophy ahead of the Oscars.

Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin

Who Ought to Win: Guy Pearce? Jeremy Strong? Edward Norton? Take your pick!

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Sean Baker (Anora); Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold (The Brutalist); Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain); Moritz Binder, Alex David, and Tim Fehlbaum (September 5); Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

This race seems to be a 50–50 split, based on which films have won this prize elsewhere. On the one hand, prognosticators have deemed Anora the Best Picture favorite, so it should pick up additional trophies on the way to the big one. (It’s up for six total at the Academy Awards; Editing is another category it could secure.) On the other hand, A Real Pain is the kind of smarty-pants, dialogue-heavy stuff that often wins for Screenplay; plus, it’s written by the film’s director and star, Jesse Eisenberg, who’s already a known Oscar quantity. I think A Real Pain will edge the win—but I don’t feel confident about it.

Who Will Win: A Real Pain

Who Ought to Win: Anora

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: James Mangold and Jay Cocks (A Complete Unknown); Peter Straughan (Conclave); Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi (Emilia Pérez); RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes (Nickel Boys); Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield (Sing Sing)

Unlike any of the films in its sister category, Conclave looks to have Adapted Screenplay in the bag. Straughan translated Robert Harris’s best seller into a tightly wound, effectively plotted little thriller that’s all in the dialogue. As a work of adaptation, it’s neat yet not particularly ambitious stuff, following the contours of the book closely. I’d be much more excited by recognition for Nickel Boys, which found an unconventional and bold way to bring the author Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer-winning novel to the screen.

Who Will Win: Conclave

Who Ought to Win: Nickel Boys

Best Director

Nominees: Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

The only question when it comes to Best Director is whether it’ll diverge from Best Picture—as is more and more common at the Oscars these days. It’s happened four times in the past 10 years. This year’s race is so tight—Corbet and Baker have both won at the other big events thus far—that I’ll cautiously predict a split, with Corbet’s maximalist approach triumphing here. I wouldn’t be stunned by Baker winning the Oscar, though; in fact, he has the chance to win four trophies total (Picture, Director, Screenplay and Editing). He’d be a solid choice for any of them.

Who Will Win: Brady Corbet

Who Ought to Win: Sean Baker

Best Picture

Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

At first, Emilia Pérez came across as the lead contender because it was the biggest nomination-getter. But swirling controversy, combined with its generally divisive status among critics and audiences, has taken it down a notch. Then, I figured The Brutalist told the kind of old-school story that would resonate most with voters; its distributor A24’s canny campaign also put it in theaters late in December, traditionally an awards-season sweet spot, and made it quite the hot ticket. In just the previous few weeks, though, Anora won a bunch of big trophies—from the Critics Choice Awards, the Producers Guild, and the Directors Guild—that seemingly marked it as the easy Academy favorite. A final wrinkle has now come late in the race: The dependable, likable Conclave won two significant trophies, the BAFTA for Best Film and the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Ensemble, akin to “best movie” from that voting body. Could that film sneak in as the consensus pick ahead of the spikier material surrounding it? I’ll still pick Anora by a nose, but it’s a bet worth hedging.

The best movie of the year, of course, is RaMell Ross’s innovative, inventive, deeply empathetic Nickel Boys—which got two deserved nods. But the film might have kept some voters at a distance with its unusual storytelling approach, as its critical acclaim hasn’t helped it earn many prime honors.

Who Will Win: Anora

Who Ought to Win: Nickel Boys

Millie Bobby Brown, Mikey Madison and Timothée Chalamet were among the stars posing for pictures.

Pope drama and immigration epic win four apiece; there are also wins for Zoe Saldana and Mikey Madison.

Mikey Madison, Demi Moore and Ariana Grande are among the stars expected at the ceremony on Sunday.