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Yesterday, news outlets reported the existence of a recording in which Donald Trump discusses his possession of classified documents. The recording could prove legally damaging, but its existence also reveals something important about how the former president operates.

First, here are three new stories from The Atlantic:

America’s approach to addiction has gone off the rails. Don’t avoid romance. Online ads are about to get even worse.

Image Above Law

Yesterday evening, CNN and The New York Times reported that federal prosecutors have a 2021 recording of Donald Trump discussing a military document he held on to after leaving the White House. According to multiple sources, Trump indicates in the recording that he is aware that the document in his possession is classified.

The content of this recording could play an important role in Justice Department Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation of Trump’s handling of secret records in Mar-a-Lago. A strong prosecution would need to prove that Trump was aware that what he was doing was illegal, and the 2021 tape could offer that evidence. (Neither CNN nor the Times heard the recording, but multiple sources described the audio to reporters.)

But, as my colleague David Graham noted today, the apparent recording plays another role in our understanding of Trump too: “The circumstances of the recording,” he writes, reveal “the way he seems to understand bad press as a graver threat than criminal prosecution.”

David walks us through the circumstances behind the tape: The recording was reportedly made during a meeting Trump held with two writers who were working with Mark Meadows, his former chief of staff, on Meadows’s autobiography. At the meeting, Trump was apparently upset about a recent New Yorker report claiming that, in the final days of his administration, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley had tried to prevent Trump from ordering a strike on Iran. Trump reportedly referenced a classified document that he suggested could undermine that claim. Meanwhile, Margo Martin, a Trump aide, was reportedly recording the meeting because Trump was worried about being misrepresented or misquoted.

In other words, David writes, “Trump’s fear of damaging press—whether in the Milley reports or the Meadows book—was so much greater than his fear of criminal accountability that he ended up making an incriminating recording that could be a key piece of his own prosecution.”

Trump has long viewed tapes as a protective currency, my colleague Sophie Gilbert noted in 2018—“a talisman against future malfeasance.” But he’s been burned before, when allies or employees use his own techniques against him. Two notable examples: the attorney Michael Cohen, and the former presidential aide Omarosa Manigault Newman.

This time, Trump could get burned by his own recording tactics—but David argues that he has some cards left to play: “Over and over, he’s managed to wriggle out of potential legal jams with bluster, brazenness, and the occasional large check.” That strategy worked even when Trump was president; by rallying political support, Trump was able to escape serious consequences from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, as well as conviction in both impeachments. He will try these tricks again, David reminds us:

No matter how damning the evidence that Smith is able to assemble, Trump is seeking to bully the Justice Department out of charging him. If that doesn’t work, he hopes to be reelected to the presidency in November 2024, which would allow him to shut down any investigation or prosecution against him, or to pardon himself. It might yet work.

And although 2024 is still a year away, one thing is for sure: Trump can consistently rely on political support from the GOP’s base. In an article aptly titled “They Still Love Him,” also published today, David noted that the majority of GOP voters don’t want a better Trump alternative than the candidates on offer. They want Trump himself. They still love him, and they will continue to love him—all the way to 2024, when he gets the chance to shove his legal troubles out of sight.

Related:

Lordy, there are tapes. They still love him.

Today’s News

The debt-ceiling deal passed the House with a vote of 314–117. It will now go to the Senate and, if it passes there, can then be signed into law by President Joe Biden. Russia says it repelled three more cross-border attacks from pro-Ukraine forces while its aerial assaults on Kyiv killed three people. The Senate passed legislation to block President Biden’s debt-relief program. Biden has said he will veto the measure, but the Supreme Court is expected to rule on two cases on the plan this month.

Dispatches

Up for Debate: Conor Friedersdorf makes the case for redirecting DEI funds.

Evening Read

Video by The Atlantic. Source: Sobli / RDB / ullstein bild / Getty.

NASA Learns the Ugly Truth About UFOs

By Marina Koren

At a meeting in NASA headquarters yesterday, the public had some blunt questions about UFOs, or, as the government now calls them, “unexplained anomalous phenomena.” A NASA spokesperson summarized them aloud: “What is NASA hiding, and where are you hiding it? How much has been shared publicly? Has NASA ever cut the live NASA TV feed away from something? Has NASA released all UAP evidence it has ever received? What about NASA astronauts—do they have an NDA or clearance that does not allow them to speak about UAP sightings? What are the science overlords hiding?” In short: Are you guys lying to everyone?

Read the full article.

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Culture Break

Jeong Park / A24

Read. A new collection of Susan Sontag’s 1970s writing and interviews about feminism, On Women, showcases the writer’s stylish, idiosyncratic approach to the debates of her era.

Watch. You Hurt My Feelings, in theaters, is made by a filmmaker who knows what’s wrong with your relationships.

Play our daily crossword.

P.S.

For those of you who are fans of The Wire, my colleague Adam Serwer’s 2019 story on the “Stringer Bell rule” offers a useful descriptor for the most important rule of a conspiracy—one that Trump and his inner circle have violated over and over again.

— Isabel

Katherine Hu contributed to this newsletter.

This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here.

As my colleague Matteo Wong noted earlier this month, a hotter-than-usual summer may await many Americans. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s temperature and precipitation outlook for June through August shows a significant chance of above-normal temperatures across much of the country. I spoke with NOAA experts about how these predictions are made, what to expect in the weeks and months to come, and how to stay safe in extreme heat.

First, here are three new stories from The Atlantic:

The DEI industry needs to check its privilege. The indignity of grocery shopping Semi-retirees know the key to work-life balance. Above Normal

What kind of summer do we potentially have in store in the United States? How should Americans interpret these weather predictions?

Johnna M. Infanti, a scientist at NOAA who was the forecaster for the June-July-August Climate Prediction Center outlook released this past month, told me that “generally, what we’re seeing is a pattern that favors above-normal temperatures for much of the country. But our outlooks really speak to the probability that the average temperature will be above normal. It doesn’t really indicate whether or not these temperatures will be extreme or set any records.”

“We take the average of temperatures for the June-July-August period from 1991 to 2020, and our models give us an indication of whether we should expect the upcoming summer to be warmer or cooler or dryer or wetter than the average,” she explained.

Morgan Zabow, the community heat and health information coordinator at NOAA, added that the likelihood of above-normal temperatures is expressed in percentages, which doesn’t tell us exactly what temperatures to expect but gives us an idea of what could be coming in different geographical areas.

“A temperature outlook like this really helps your decision makers—your city planners, your public-health officials, emergency responders—be a little bit more aware of what this could mean,” Zabow told me. “An increased risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths that disproportionately affect children under 5 and older adults, people experiencing homelessness, athletes, and so many other populations.”

So how do these predictions get made?

Infanti told me that her team uses dynamical climate models—“basically, computer models of what we might expect in the upcoming season based on the current state of the atmosphere, land, and ocean. They then show predictions for the temperature and precipitation for the next season.”

“We also look at things like long-term decadal trends,” she said. “For example, if a region has seen increasing temperatures over the last 10 years, that’s something we would take into consideration. We’d also look at sea-surface temperatures, both along the coast and globally if there’s something like an El Niño happening.”

How much of a role will El Niño play in shaping the climate of the coming months?

First, an explanation of how the phenomenon works: “El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean,” Infanti said. “And that natural climate pattern swings back and forth every three to seven years on average. We just ended a period of La Niña in the tropical Pacific, which means cooler-than-average temperatures across the tropical Pacific.”

Next, Infanti and her colleagues predict that we will enter an El Niño phase, “which means that the conditions in the tropical Pacific are favorable for the development of El Niño conditions within the next few months, bringing warmer-than-average tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures that can cause local changes in convection patterns over that region. And that sets off a kind of a chain reaction—we call them teleconnections—across most of the globe. But we wouldn’t see related weather effects in the U.S. until the wintertime.”

Back to those above-normal temperatures: How does climate change factor into volatile weather patterns?

“With climate change, we’re seeing heat waves that are occurring more frequently. They’re more intense, and they’re also lasting longer, plus the heat-wave season is increasing,” Zabow said. “A heat-wave season could have typically been just during the summer months, but now we’re starting to see it before the typical summer months and after what people would consider summer months too.”

What can people do to keep cool and safe?

“Extreme heat events can be very deadly, especially at the beginning of the heat season, because people aren’t acclimated to the heat yet,” Zabow told me. “It’s important to note, though, that heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable. It’s about taking simple measures, such as wearing a hat when you’re outside or wearing light-colored clothing to reflect some of the heat, making sure that you are staying inside in a space that has access to air-conditioning.”

If you don’t have access to air-conditioning at home, Zabow recommends finding a cooling center—you might try a local mall or library, or a special designated cooling center in your area. She encourages Americans to check out heat.gov for more guidance on what to do before, during, and after heat waves.

Related:

Nowhere should expect a cool summer. Why California can’t catch a break Today’s News House members will vote on the bipartisan debt-limit deal this evening. A new study shows that Earth has entered danger zones for seven out of eight scientifically established safety limits. A federal appeals-court panel ruled that the Sackler family will receive full immunity from current and future civil legal claims regarding their role in Purdue Pharma’s prescription-opioid business. Dispatches The Weekly Planet: The one thing holding back the mass adoption of electric cars in America isn’t the cars themselves, Patrick George writes. Up for Debate: Conor Friedersdorf shares readers’ thoughts on Ron DeSantis’s run for the 2024 GOP nomination.

Explore all of our newsletters here.

Evening Read Kevin Mazur / TAS23 / Getty

Fans’ Expectations of Taylor Swift Are Chafing Against Reality

By Spencer Kornhaber

Three songs have been playing every night before Taylor Swift has taken the stage on her current tour, and each one seems to convey a different message. One track is Lesley Gore’s “You Don’t Own Me,” a classic assertion of female independence. Another is Lady Gaga’s “Applause,” a pump-up jam in which a celebrity confesses her hunger for approval. Then there’s Ice Spice’s “In Ha Mood,” a recent hip-hop song whose presence shows, among other things, that Swift is paying attention to what’s hot in pop culture—an important fact to keep in mind when evaluating the controversy now brewing around her.

Ice Spice is a 23-year-old Bronx emcee whose whispery voice and puff of red hair have become internationally famous in a very short span of time, following the TikTok success of her August 2022 single “Munch (Feelin’ U).” She features on the new remix of Swift’s track “Karma,” released last week, and this past weekend she joined Swift to perform the song at the singer’s three concerts in New Jersey. From a distance, the story feels familiar: Established star allies with rising star for mutual benefit. But the remix has unleashed a wave of indignation online, making Swift, not for the first time, a focal point for conflicting attitudes about what entertainers owe their audience.

Read the full article.

More From The Atlantic

Some animals have no choice but to live at airports now. Jack Teixeira should have been stopped again and again. The Succession plot point that explained the whole series Culture Break Illustration by The Atlantic. Sources: Matt Squire / Lookout Point / AMC.

Read. “Near Darwin,” a new poem by Carl Dennis.

“Why turn from the table / To write a lament on the power of time / To undermine human effort when he can describe / How the work of worms helps sustain us?”

Watch. Happy Valley (on AMC+ and BBC America), which, according to our Culture writer, features the most compelling female character on television.

Play our daily crossword.

P.S.

When we discussed the long-term temperature impact of climate change, Zabow, the NOAA heat and health information coordinator, pointed me to Climate Explorer, a web tool hosted by the National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center. “You’re able to type in any county in the United States and see what the historical average temperatures were in the area, and then what the projections are,” she told me. “You could see how hot your neighborhood might be by 2050, or by 2090, depending on whether or not we implement emissions-reducing measures.” It’s a sobering yet useful climate-reality check.

— Kelli

Katherine Hu contributed to this newsletter.