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Yesterday, President Joe Biden announced an additional $9 billion in student-loan forgiveness. Since Biden’s mass student-loan-forgiveness plan was struck down by the Supreme Court this past summer (student-loan repayments officially resumed on October 1), his administration has been focusing on narrower strategies for relieving student debt, such as an income-driven repayment plan. I called Atlantic staff writer Adam Harris, who covers higher education, to discuss what’s next for the Americans most affected by the return of repayment, and the case for higher education as a public good.

First, here are three new stories from The Atlantic:

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Isabel Fattal: What do you make of yesterday’s news of another $9 billion in debt relief?

Adam Harris: There are a few different programs that this relief, which covers about 125,000 people, is coming out of; it is the result of changes Biden made to income-driven repayment plans, as well as public-service loan forgiveness and relief for some borrowers with disabilities.

Over the past several years, the Biden administration has forgiven something like $127 billion in student debt—more than any other administration. Now it’s using some of the programs and levers already available to try to relieve even more. The current total is nothing to scoff at, but it still is only a small crack in the armor of this $1 trillion debt burden we have in the United States. What they’re trying to do is provide as much relief as possible under the programs that they believe are still legal.

Isabel: Who will likely be most affected by the return of student-loan payments this month?

Adam: A consistent fact over the past 20 years is that the borrowers who are most at risk for being in default, who are struggling to repay their student debt, are typically low income and from racial-minority groups—Black borrowers, Latino borrowers. A few months ago, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau warned that basically one in five student borrowers has risk factors that indicate they could struggle now that student-loan payments have resumed. We know that discretionary spending helps the economy, and big-box retailers like Best Buy and Target have recently expressed concerns about the impacts of the return of repayment on their businesses. A Goldman Sachs report said that something like $70 billion of discretionary income will now be going toward these student-loan payments. If you think of discretionary income, it's not necessarily people going out and buying TVs. It’s that they have a little bit of additional money to do things with.

It’s not necessarily the folks who have $40,000, $50,000, $60,000, $70,000 in student debt, who went to medical school or went to law school, who make up the majority of borrowers who struggle. It’s people who started college and didn’t end up finishing. It’s people who have fewer than $10,000 in student-loan debt who will be likely struggling to repay that debt, even with a repayment plan that’s something like an extra $100 or $200 a month. That’s a car payment. That’s a bill that they will have to consider paying late.

Isabel: You wrote last year that mass student-debt forgiveness is not a solution for the underlying issue of college affordability in America. Are there notable government initiatives in place to tackle the issue of college affordability right now?

Adam: The Biden administration reintroduced a free-community-college proposal in its budget plan this past March. It was ultimately unsuccessful, but it shows that the administration is still interested in some of those programs that will remove the necessity for debt on the front end. Oftentimes we think of higher education as a private good, something that is for the benefit of the student who gets the degree, rather than thinking of it as a public good. At the founding of this nation, some of the Founding Fathers effectively said there is nothing that better deserves your patronage than education.

“Knowledge is in every country the surest basis of public happiness.” That’s George Washington to Congress in his first State of the Union address, saying that in order to build good citizens, you need educated citizens. I often think of that in this moment, when we’re requiring people to go deeply into debt in order to afford this thing that at the beginning people thought was essential to citizenship.

Isabel: Is there anything else you’re thinking about these days in terms of student debt?

Adam: There was a really interesting paper released recently, less focused on student-loan repayment and more about how we think and talk about student loans and how the media covers student loans. Dominique Baker was the lead researcher on it. One of the biggest findings was that very few of the people who had written articles about student loans among eight major publications had ever attended a community college, and the majority of them attended Ivy Plus or public flagship colleges.

If you look across America, around 40 percent of students who are enrolled in higher education in the nation attend community colleges. I have a lot of friends who started college, did not finish college, and now have something like $8,000 of student debt that they’re looking at, saying, How am I going to pay that off with my job that is only giving me enough to afford the basics of living? There are a lot of opportunities for the situation that we are in to spiral into an unsustainable one for a lot of people.

Related:

How student debt has contributed to “delayed” adulthood Why some students are skipping college

Today’s News

At least 51 people have died after a Russian missile strike near the Ukrainian city of Kupiansk, in one of the deadliest attacks on civilians of the war. In a sweeping move, the Biden administration waived 26 federal laws in South Texas to allow for border-wall construction. Last month was the hottest September ever recorded, to the alarm of climate scientists.

Evening Read

Illustration by Ricardo Rey

Does Sam Altman Know What He’s Creating?

By Ross Andersen

On a Monday morning in April, Sam Altman sat inside OpenAI’s San Francisco headquarters, telling me about a dangerous artificial intelligence that his company had built but would never release. His employees, he later said, often lose sleep worrying about the AIs they might one day release without fully appreciating their dangers. With his heel perched on the edge of his swivel chair, he looked relaxed. The powerful AI that his company had released in November had captured the world’s imagination like nothing in tech’s recent history. There was grousing in some quarters about the things ChatGPT could not yet do well, and in others about the future it may portend, but Altman wasn’t sweating it; this was, for him, a moment of triumph.

In small doses, Altman’s large blue eyes emit a beam of earnest intellectual attention, and he seems to understand that, in large doses, their intensity might unsettle. In this case, he was willing to chance it: He wanted me to know that whatever AI’s ultimate risks turn out to be, he has zero regrets about letting ChatGPT loose into the world. To the contrary, he believes it was a great public service.

Read the full article.

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Read. C Pam Zhang’s new novel, Land of Milk and Honey, asks whether seeking pleasure amid collapse is inherently immoral.

Listen. In the latest episode of Radio Atlantic, host Hanna Rosin explains the real reason Biden’s political wins don’t register with voters.

Play our daily crossword.

Katherine Hu contributed to this newsletter.

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Objectively speaking, President Joe Biden has presided over some significant, even historic, accomplishments: a massive vaccine rollout, the biggest infrastructure investment since the Eisenhower administration, the lowest unemployment rate in over 50 years. Yet, when voters are asked about these things, their responses are perplexing. Poll after poll show that voters have never heard of these programs, are annoyed the media isn’t reporting about them more, or they just don’t care. Why don’t Biden’s political and legislative victories penetrate the public consciousness?

Political insiders point the finger at Biden. He isn’t a great communicator, they say. He tends to defer and give other people credit. He doesn’t have enough energy. But part of it is also how voters consume political news.

In this episode of Radio Atlantic, we talk to Franklin Foer, author of The Last Politician: Inside Joe Biden’s White House and the Struggle for America’s Future, and Elaina Plott Calabro, a politics writer at the Atlantic, about what political news is—or isn’t—breaking through, and the gap between what voters say they want and what they actually seem to want.

Listen to the conversation here:

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The following is a transcript of the episode:

Hanna Rosin: I’m Hanna Rosin, and this is Radio Atlantic.

Not speaking as a partisan here, just an observer of human nature, there is something I can’t understand about the Biden administration. They have objectively, objectively, pulled off some pretty huge things: an enormous and complicated vaccine rollout, the biggest investment in infrastructure in over 50 years, the lowest unemployment rate in over 50 years.

These are moves which are impressive and historic and helpful to many, many Americans, and yet, poll after poll shows that when people are asked about these accomplishments, they’re surprised. They’ve never heard of them. They’re annoyed the media isn’t reporting about them more, or they just shrug, like Who cares?

Why? Why don’t these legitimate wins penetrate the public consciousness?

Now, there are inside, political consultant-type answers, which point the finger at Biden and his style of governing, just as there are insider-type answers to what happened in the House this week, when a tiny group of Republican extremists ousted the Speaker of the House.

Something is going wrong with them, the politicians. But I suspect it’s more complicated than that.

And what I’m wondering more about is us, the voters: what we’ve become accustomed to, what we’re maybe encouraging, what we are and aren’t paying attention to, what we say we want versus what we actually want. What part of it is them, and what part is us?

Recently at a live show, I ran these questions by The Atlantic staff writer Frank Foer, who just wrote a book called The Last Politician about Joe Biden, and Elaina Plott Calabro, who writes about politics for The Atlantic and who has asked a lot of experienced pollsters questions like this: What’s the problem? Why don’t voters know about these big successes?

Elaina Plott Calabro: I think it’s not natural for someone like President Biden to try and go out and focus on shaping the narrative that way. At the end of the day you’ll talk to pollsters who say I go in and say, Did you know that this administration kind of executed the largest investment in infrastructure, really since the Eisenhower era? When they do bring this up with voters and focus groups, they’re almost angry that they haven’t heard about it.

Rosin: What do you mean, they’re angry?

Plott Calabro: Why didn’t I know about this? Why didn’t this break through the media for me? And it’s interesting because reporters do cover these things, but that, I think is, kind of a dynamic that’s become really pronounced in the Trump era. What does it mean to achieve ubiquity as a politician when you are not Donald Trump? And when has that become the standard for how one breaks through?

Rosin: Why aren’t they pleased? Like, why isn’t it a Oh, this is wonderful.

Plott Calabro: I think it’s more of just, I feel that I should have known about this. Why is this not something I’m seeing on TV every day? Or that when I just, like, log on to the homepage of whatever news source I use is the banner of the day?

Rosin: So, I feel unsatisfied in understanding why they’re not breaking through the public consciousness. Is it because they are not great communicators? Is it because—maybe what I’m asking, is the problem them or us?

Franklin Foer: Yeah, well, I think, as a nation we’re suffering through some sort of equivalent of a long COVID, where even though the pandemic is gone, there’s a lot that still feels bad about its aftermath. Whether it’s inflation, which is something that you’re reminded of constantly, and whether the administration contributed to it in a somewhat meaningful way or an extremely meaningful way, it’s there and people are pissed off about that.

Like, when was the right moment to crow about the vaccine? Like, was it while people were getting vaccinated, but there were different variants that continued to rage across the country? Was it after we returned to normal? Returning to normal wasn’t something. I read The Plague by Camus, and there was actually a fireworks display at the end of that pandemic when the quarantine was lifted. They tried that fireworks display on July 4, 2021, and they got lashed roundly for that. So I think there’s something about the times that we’re living in. And then I do think that there is something about his age that ends up compounding this impression that he’s not governing in a competent sort of way. So when you read my book, you would see that he’s a micromanager. He’s involved in a lot of decision making, but the public impression is that he’s not an energetic president. Is that persuasive?

Rosin: That’s almost persuasive, but I think my fear is that we don’t have tolerance to take in good news. Like, our senses are heightened to conflict in such a way now that we can’t even hear anything that’s below the decibel of that. And so if he were to somehow say, Look I’ve accomplished, I’ve done this great thing. I’ve, you know, done this with inflation. I’ve done this with vaccines, it just comes in as noise, you know, dull noise.

Plott Calabro: I would say Celinda Lake, who’s a pretty prominent Democratic pollster, has done a lot of work for the Biden campaign. She put it to me pretty succinctly, which was that when you understand that people feel day to day, like the vibes are off in the country, they don’t want to see their politicians taking a victory lap, even if it’s deservedly so, for example. When it’s not matching, sort of, their day-to-day experience in the country, it just—it’s a recipe for disaster. Like fireworks not going so well for instance.

Rosin: Mm-hmm.

Plott Calabro: I think that’s something important to think about. But the second thing that’s interesting about whether voters today have the capacity to, I don’t know, register good news or even seek it out, you know, on their own—that’s, I think, something that Democrats are confused by too, because, you know, Biden was swept in ostensibly on this idea that voters want a return to normalcy.

They want to get back to a place where they’re not actively, like, wondering what their president is saying or doing every day. In some ways, that is what this president has been able to provide, but even if voters were saying back in 2020, That is the dynamic we want, it’s not the one that seems to compel them day to day in terms of, like, wanting to be engaged with what is happening.

Rosin: So this is one of those cases, I can’t remember the psychological, sociological term for when there’s a gap between what you say you want in a poll and what you actually want, and you’re not even aware of that, your desire, because it’s subconscious. So you’re like, Check. I want to go back to normal. But it’s not actually….

Okay, so we have 12 months until the election or so. I’ve heard the term—a lot of people say we’re sleepwalking into the same election, but I think that’s not true. Like, I think that many things are very different than they were four years ago. So let’s start with Trump. What’s different, Elaina, about Donald Trump now? Who’s the Donald Trump now versus the Donald Trump we knew last time?

Plott Calabro: The Donald Trump who ran in the last election was someone who felt he was playing with house money, right? And I think that was a large part of his appeal. There was no plan necessarily for what to do once he got in office, because not even he actually expected for that to ever happen.

There is a degree, I think, of seriousness to the bid this time to where, you know, you might recall, Hanna, the very popular and overused phrase back in 2016, which was “Take him seriously but not literally.” I think we’ve arrived at a point where Donald Trump has shown voters enough of himself, and consistently, that you can no longer just say, Don’t take him at his word.

Especially after January 6, we are far, far past that. So if he is saying something to rile up a crowd, I don’t think that there is the same degree of suspension of disbelief maybe there was in 2016—and perhaps never should have been—that he is very serious about what he wants to do.

And I think when it comes to his very nakedly authoritarian tendencies, that is what gives this election, I think, like, a much darker tenor and, like, starker shape than the one that we saw.

Foer: You know the other slogan or the other catchphrase is one that Paul Krugman came up with, which was, “malevolence tempered by incompetence.” And so I think that there is a chance that it could be malevolence tempered by less incompetence heading into this campaign. And I’m so fascinated by the fact that he’s managed to go many months without overexposing himself to the public.

I think that part of the reason why the poll numbers are where they are is that people have forgotten the malevolence of Donald Trump. And when he wages his equivalent of a basement campaign, which seems like it runs against everything, every fiber of his being to be quiet, that’s interesting.

And then you’ll get the abortion issue and the way that he’s trying to pivot to the center against the other Republicans who are running against him, he’s made this calculation, This nomination is mine. I need to start running a general-election campaign. That’s a shockingly competent move. And then I think when it relates to the authoritarianism that Elaina’s just describing, you see all of these plans that are in the works, that think tanks are ginning up in order to remake the civil service, to eliminate the swaths of the deep state that he abhors, that seems much more competent than the last go around.

Rosin: What is the…I feel like the Republicans are starting to coalesce around a line about Biden. Like, they’re hitting on a line about Biden. What? What is that? And how did they come to that?

Foer: It does feel like they’ve successfully constructed a character. He’s “sleepy Joe Biden.” He’s this guy who slurs his words and can’t complete a sentence.

There’s almost a conspiratorial edge to it that he’s just a sorry corpse who is like, it’s Weekend at Bernie’s. He’s being carted out by these evil advisors

Rosin: For the deep state—

Foer: To do their progressive bidding.

And then they have the Hunter Biden thing, which I think has been so successful because, like I described the aging, the mental-acuity continuum, there’s this corruption continuum that now exists where Hunter Biden did his thing, and Joe– and Donald Trump did his thing. Nevermind that fundamentally subverting the democracy and, like, 90 different counts that have been indictable is very different than your son lying about his drug use on a gun application. Different in kind, but they’ve successfully created this impression that, you know, Joe Biden is just another elite who is getting away with it because he’s using his connections.

Plott Calabro: I do think, though, that there is a dimension that we haven’t addressed yet, and we should because Frank in particular has done great reporting on it. I would argue that Republicans actually finally gained the foothold they needed to position him as incompetent or less than ideal as a president—what have you—after Afghanistan. His poll numbers have not recovered since Afghanistan, which to me, I just find fascinating as a reporter because it does seem often that we’re in this moment that maybe a new cycle has three days before it fizzles out.

But Afghanistan is something that has kind of remained, like, a throughline of this administration when it comes to perceptions about, you know, competence or incompetence.

Foer: The Afghanistan stuff was so viral and so terrible. And the images of people falling from airplanes and the chaos in the streets. And it was one of those rare occasions where mainstream media and Fox News were completely in sync and somewhat, you know, as mainstream media reacted to it in a very moralizing sort of way.

Rosin: Like, sad for the people there.

Foer: Sad for the people there, outraged at Biden’s behavior and profoundly disappointed in Joe Biden.

Plott Calabro: And it was only really six months into the new administration, so there’s just such fertile ground for, you know, first impressions to be formed.

Rosin: Do you think Joe Biden is maybe too old?

Foer: So here’s, I thought a lot about this when I wrote my book, interestingly, I thought about the age question. It frames the book, but age isn’t a throughline of my story. And I had to question myself afterwards. Why didn’t I push the age question more? And it’s in fact, in the first few years of his presidency, and in effect I was writing a book about governing, age didn’t matter to the way that he governed.

Right now he has the ability to do the job, but there are a couple caveats that are very important that need to be appended to that. He doesn’t have the energy to campaign in the way that he would have a couple of years ago, let alone a couple of decades ago.

And does that become an issue for the republic, that he can’t energetically campaign in that sort of way? Then there’s the question of, Is it a good idea to have an 86-year-old president? I would say no. I would rather not have an 86-year-old president. But I would rather have an 86-year-old president than Donald Trump.

Rosin: I don’t instinctively understand the age question. I understand the gerontocracy question. Like, Why is everybody that old? But I don’t understand the specific age question. Like, 86-year-olds probably, to me, have a lot of experience and wisdom, and this is a terrible period, and Donald Trump is the other choice. Like, it doesn’t enter my mind the way it does a lot of other people.

Foer: It’s true. And I do think that there is, I don’t think, Ukraine or China—these really massive issues that loom over the world, loom over the presidency. Joe Biden happens to have an incredible amount of wisdom and experience as it relates to foreign policy. And to navigate a proxy war against a nuclear power where choices could result in a very, very dangerous escalation that could destroy the planet, there’s a lot of value in having somebody who’s been around the block.

Rosin: And I feel more so reading your book, it’s like a guy with a lot of experience, some amount of self-awareness, a lot of emotional intelligence, drive, sure.

Plott Calabro: Here, I would chime in to say, the conversation that y’all are having right now, and sort of, almost the case that you’re making, is not the one that the White House is currently making. I think where this White House is running afoul of voters, when it comes to this age question, is that they act as though it’s an illegitimate question.

Rosin: I see.

Plott Calabro: Okay, objectively, you know, it’s not really the point whether or not that’s true. The point is that polling day in and day out shows that Americans do care about this question. But White House aides, I mean, you bring it up and they—they act like you’re insane that you would even, like, deign to ask them about Joe Biden’s mortality, like, as a human being.

I mean, President Eisenhower, who, you know, entered office in—what was then, I think at the time, the oldest president—in his ’60s had heart issues pretty early into his term. He really felt that Americans deserved to know that he felt, you know, ready and willing to continue doing his job and, like, was there and with it.

But it was also important to him to demonstrate that even though he personally hated Richard Nixon as his vice president, just really didn’t like the guy, that Americans had the sense that, were something to happen to him, um, that they would be in good hands with Richard Nixon. And this White House is—this White House has not taken on, I guess, a similar mentality that this is something that, you know, is a legitimate thing to care about. Even if they don’t think it is, Americans do, and they should be communicating with the public accordingly.

Rosin: That’s such a good point. I never thought of that. If they just, like, took the Fetterman route, like, Here’s what’s going on. Here’s where I’m going to be ready. Kamala’s, you know, whatever, like just address it.

Plott Calabro: I mean, I’ve said that to White House aides before. I’m like, “Do you not think that it would go over relatively well if your boss were to say, Listen, I know I’m old, but I feel great. I have every expectation of finishing out four more years. But listen, if something, God forbid, were to happen to me, you’re in great hands with Kamala Harris.”

Foer: But they’re clearly worried about voters having to make the choice between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, because they’re not convinced that voters will choose Kamala Harris over Donald Trump.

Rosin: I feel like what we are leaving… where we’ve taken our audiences so far, is that the Democrats are sort of, like, drowning under a series of incompetent strategies. And Trump is the clever one. He’s riding it right.

Have you guys, in reporting on Democrats, landed on anything surprising, hopeful, where you think, Oh, that’s a clever move. Or like, That’s a person who knows what’s up.

Plott Calabro: I was on this very stage yesterday. I did a panel with Sarah Longwell, who is a Republican strategist but, you know, very anti-Trump—she publishes The Bulwark and does focus groups constantly, and Alencia Johnson, who is a Democratic strategist. And Sarah at one point turned to Alencia, and she said, “You know, as somebody who very much wants Biden to win, it has been so clear that where Republicans have succeeded in the messaging game the past several years is that when Donald Trump says something, every Republican down the line is on cable news that night repeating it verbatim. With Democrats it’s just never the same.” So Sarah essential says, “I’m just gonna need you guys to kind of, like, get it together in that respect.”

But I mean, going back to the question about the vice president, even it’s just, like, faking that Democrats think Kamala Harris would be an exceptional president if elected.

I mean, Jamie Raskin is on with Jake Tapper, and he’s saying, “Yes or no? Do you endorse Kamala Harris for vice president?” He said, “Well, you know, I haven’t seen polling.” I mean, it was remarkable. And then you have Nancy Pelosi on with Anderson Cooper. He asks her the same question, and he said, “Do you think that Kamala Harris is the best running mate for Joe Biden?”

She said, “He seems to think so, and that’s what matters.”

Rosin: Burn.

Plott Calabro: So Republicans, meanwhile, they’ll, you know—they’ll go on TV, and then you catch them in the green room after, and they’re like, Well, I’m full of shit. I don’t believe any of that, whatever.

Rosin: Okay, anything you guys can prognosticate that feels different than what we all think is gonna happen? “No,” is a fine answer. You’re insiders so…

Foer: Can I just—I want to say one thing about—you talked about the difference between Democrats and Republicans. And I think part of that difference is the level of fear and anxiety that Democrats bring to every sort of political discussion, because the stakes are so existential that—you know, there’s this famous phrase that David Plouffe used to describe Barack Obama’s doubters, that they were bedwetters. And like, if your nightmare is about to descend on America, uh, you’re going to wet the bed all night long.

Rosin: By the way, it is amazing to me that that’s a mainstream political phrase, bedwetter

Foer: Radio Atlantic, this is your next episode.

Rosin: Yes. Bedwetting.

Plott Calabro: An investigation.

Foer: So I think the point is that when you’re bedwetting, you’re anxious, and that when you’re anxious, you’re not actually able to make cold, honest calculations about what’s happening. And there are so many reasons to be afraid of Donald Trump, but the political conditions right now, so many months before the election, are not necessarily reliable.

And if you look at what Nate Cohn has been writing in The New York Times—so I’m not saying anything that’s original, but, I think this is an under appreciated fact—Joe Biden has hemorrhaged support in California, in New York, where you have migrant crises, and you have high inflation—especially high inflation, high gas prices, and so he’s not going to be able to run up the margins in blue-state bastions.

But then you look in the industrial Midwest or the Rust Belt or Wisconsin and Michigan and the like, and Democrats have consistently performed very well there since Trump’s presidency and midterm elections and special elections.

Abortion has been a very salient issue that white voters in those places have actually stuck with Joe Biden. And so it’s possible that, headed into this election, we’re not going to have this massive disjunction between the popular vote and the electoral college.

Plott Calabro: I think another underappreciated dynamic that is likely to play out in a general election with Donald Trump as the nominee, is abortion becomes not so obvious a flashpoint just for Democrats anymore. If Ron DeSantis is the nominee, like, absolutely. I don’t think that Democrats worry about maintaining the independents and maybe more moderate Republican women that they were able to pick off in the midterms. With Donald Trump as the nominee, that issue gets trickier to litigate. I see it being, you know, just as much of a flashpoint in the election—this general election—as I do in the midterms.

And I think that, I mean, it’s just going to be interesting—

Foer: Just because Donald Trump is able to triangulate on the issue?

Plott Calabro: Absolutely. Absolutely. And he’s the only one in the field doing it right now.

Rosin: So it’s neutralized?

Plott Calabro: I don’t think it’s, like, entirely neutralized. I just think it becomes harder if Donald Trump is the candidate.

Rosin: Right. Okay. Last thing. Frank, so the title of your book, The Last Politician, you know, it’s positive to neutral for Biden. but it is, like, it could be interpreted as sort of worrisome for the country ’cause you make it seem as if this person who’s relatively effective, able to get things done, is an absolutely dying breed. And yet the feel of your book is not dark or pessimistic. Like, I actually felt good reading it. It made me feel a little bit hopeful in general about political culture, about the humanity of political culture. You describe the Biden White House as sort of a series of friends. It sounded like a cool office. I was like, Oh, I would like to work in that office.

Foer: It is not a cool office. The people who occupy that office are not cool.

Rosin: It sounded like, sure, like it’s a warm, like a human office. Like, it sounded like decent people working in a human office trying to get—like, I didn’t feel bad. I didn’t get that, like, Veep feeling.

Plott Calabro: That’s the decided lack of Steve Bannon, I would say.

Rosin: Yeah, maybe.

Foer: So my publisher came to me with this idea of writing a book about the first hundred days. And I didn’t want to write a book about Joe Biden. I wanted to write a book about earnest, well-meaning people descending on a government that had been ruined by the last occupant, as they contended with a historic pandemic and an economy that was on the brink.

I had this image of Ron Klain, who was Biden’s chief of staff, wearing a headlamp as he was excavating the ruins of government that Trump had left behind. And what was attractive to me about the project was writing a book about governance. I mean, I don’t have—

Rosin: But the fact that such people exist and they take governance seriously, that’s actually hopeful.

Foer: I agree. I agree.

Rosin: Like, that suggests that people go into politics for the right reasons.

And it’s not, like, just the last politician, and Oh no, like, What do we have left? Like, that—that there is a strain of people who care about running the country in that way.

Foer: Yeah, and also, our institutions can work. It’s like the people in this country have so lost faith in institutions. But you look at something like the vaccine, that is a program that was so well-designed, so well executed, that within six months of the Biden people coming into office, you could stroll into your CVS and get a shot that saved your life. Even though the distribution process for that was extremely difficult, and there were pockets of the country that were hard to penetrate, that happened. That worked, and I think that that is a reason to be optimistic.

Rosin: Yeah. Okay. Let’s end there. I don’t want to end with anything pessimistic. I want to end with the possibility that America we could…

Plott Calabro: Maybe Build Back Better, potentially.

Rosin: Thank you all.

Foer: Yeah.

Rosin: This episode of Radio Atlantic was produced by Claudine Ebeid. It was engineered by Rob Smierciak. The executive producer of Atlantic Audio is Claudine Ebeid, and our managing editor is Andrea Valdez. I’m Hanna Rosin. We’ll be back with new episodes every Thursday.

Not long ago, the idea that a former president—or major-party presidential nominee—would face serious legal jeopardy was nearly unthinkable. Today, merely keeping track of the many cases against Donald Trump requires a law degree, a great deal of attention, or both.

In all, Trump faces 91 felony counts across two state courts and two different federal districts, any of which could potentially produce a prison sentence. He’s also dealing with a civil suit in New York that could force drastic changes to his business empire, including closing down its operations in his home state. Meanwhile, he is the leading Republican candidate in the race to become the next president. If the court cases unfold with any reasonable timeliness, he could be in the heat of the campaign trail at the same time that his legal fate is being decided.

[David A. Graham: The end of Trump Inc.]

Here’s a summary of the major legal cases against Trump, including key dates, an assessment of the gravity of the charges, and expectations about how they could turn out.

New York State: Fraud

In fall 2022, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a civil suit against Trump, his adult sons, and his former aide Allen Weisselberg, alleging a yearslong scheme in which Trump fraudulently reported the value of properties in order to either lower his tax bill or improve the terms of his loans, all with an eye toward inflating his net worth.

When?
A judge ruled against Trump and his co-defendants late last month, concluding that many of the defendants’ claims were “clearly” fraudulent—so clearly that he didn’t need a trial to hear them. (He also sanctioned Trump’s lawyers for making repeated frivolous arguments.) A trial to determine the amount of damages Trump owes began Monday in Manhattan, and could stretch for weeks or even months.

How grave is the allegation?
Fraud is fraud, and in this case, the sum of the fraud stretched into the millions—but compared with some of the other legal matters in which Trump is embroiled, this is pretty pedestrian. The case is civil rather than criminal, and though it could end with Trump’s famed company barred from business in New York, the loss of several key properties, and millions of dollars of fines, the stakes are lower, both for Trump and for the nation, than in the other cases against him.

How plausible is a guilty verdict?
Justice Arthur Engoron has already ruled that Trump committed fraud. The outstanding questions are what damages he might have to pay and what exactly Engoron’s ruling means for Trump’s business and properties in New York.

Manhattan: Defamation and Sexual Assault

Although these other cases are all brought by government entities, Trump is also involved in an ongoing defamation case with the writer E. Jean Carroll, who said that Trump sexually assaulted her in a department-store dressing room in the 1990s. When he denied it, she sued him for defamation and later added a battery claim.

When?
In May 2023, a jury concluded that Trump had sexually assaulted and defamed Carroll, and awarded her $5 million. A second defamation claim remains under consideration.

How grave is the allegation?
Although this case doesn’t directly connect to the same fundamental issues of rule of law and democratic governance that some of the criminal cases do, it is a serious matter, and a judge’s blunt statement that Trump raped Carroll has been underappreciated.

How plausible is a guilty verdict?
Trump has already been found liable for defamation and sexual assault, and a further finding of defamation is possible and perhaps likely.

Manhattan: Hush Money

In March 2023, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg became the first prosecutor to bring felony charges against Trump, alleging that the former president falsified business records as part of a scheme to pay hush money to women who said they had had sexual relationships with Trump.

When?
The case is set to go to trial on March 25, 2024. In September, the judge overseeing the case signaled that he is open to changing that date, given the various other court cases that Trump is juggling, but he also said he didn’t think it was worth discussing until February.

How grave is the allegation?
Falsifying records is a crime, and crime is bad. But many people have analogized this case to Al Capone’s conviction on tax evasion: It’s not that he didn’t deserve it, but it wasn’t really why he was an infamous villain. That this case alleges behavior that didn’t undermine democracy or put national secrets at risk makes it feel more minor—though those other cases have set a grossly high standard for what constitutes gravity.

How plausible is a guilty verdict?
Bragg’s case faces hurdles including the statute of limitations, a questionable key witness in the former Trump fixer Michael Cohen, and some untested legal theories. In short, the Manhattan case seems like perhaps both the least significant and the legally weakest criminal case. Some Trump critics were dismayed that Bragg was the first to bring criminal charges against the former president.

Department of Justice: Mar-a-Lago Documents

Jack Smith, a special counsel in the U.S. Justice Department, has charged Trump with 37 felonies in connection with his removal of documents from the White House when he left office. The charges include willful retention of national-security information, obstruction of justice, withholding of documents, and false statements. Trump took boxes of documents to properties where they were stored haphazardly, but the indictment centers on his refusal to give them back to the government despite repeated requests.

[David A. Graham: This indictment is different]

When?
Smith filed charges in June 2023. Judge Aileen Cannon has set a trial date of May 20, 2024. Smith faces a de facto deadline of January 20, 2025, at which point Trump or any Republican president would likely shut down a case.

How grave is the allegation?
These are, I have written, the stupidest crimes imaginable, but they are nevertheless quite serious. Protecting the nation’s secrets is one of the greatest responsibilities of any public official with classified clearance, and not only did Trump put these documents at risk, but he also (allegedly) refused to comply with a subpoena, tried to hide them, and lied to the government through his attorneys.

How plausible is a guilty verdict?
This may be the most open-and-shut case, and the facts and legal theory here are pretty straightforward. But Smith is believed to have drawn a short straw when he was randomly assigned Cannon, a Trump appointee who has sometimes ruled favorably for Trump on procedural matters.

Fulton County: Election Subversion

In Fulton County, Georgia, which includes most of Atlanta, District Attorney Fani Willis brought a huge racketeering case against Trump and 18 others, alleging a conspiracy that spread across weeks and states with the aim of stealing the 2020 election.

When?
Willis obtained the indictment in August. The number of defendants makes the case unwieldy and difficult to track. In late September, one defendant who breached election equipment struck a plea deal. Two more, Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell, are scheduled to stand trial starting on October 23, and a judge says it could take three to five months. No date has been set for the other defendants’ trial, but it likely won’t come until 2024.

How grave is the allegation?
More than any other case, this one attempts to reckon with the full scale of the assault on democracy following the 2020 election.

How plausible is a guilty verdict?
Expert views differ. This is a huge case for a local prosecutor, even in a county as large as Fulton, to bring. The racketeering law allows Willis to sweep in a great deal of material, and she has some strong evidence—like a call in which Trump asked Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find” some 11,000 votes—but getting a jury to convict Trump will still be a challenge.

Department of Justice: Election Subversion

Special Counsel Smith has also charged Trump with four federal felonies in connection with his attempt to remain in power after losing the 2020 election. This case is in court in Washington, D.C.

When?
A grand jury indicted Trump on August 1. A trial is scheduled for March 4, 2024. As with the other DOJ case, Smith needs to move quickly, before Trump or any other Republican president could shut down a case upon taking office in January 2025.

[David A. Graham: Trump attempted a brazen, dead serious attack on American democracy]

How grave is the allegation?
This case rivals the Fulton County one in importance. It is narrower, focusing just on Trump and a few key elements of the paperwork coup, but the symbolic weight of the U.S. Justice Department prosecuting the attempt to subvert the American election system is heavy.

How plausible is a guilty verdict?
It’s very hard to say. Smith avoided some of the more unconventional potential charges, including aiding insurrection, and everyone watched much of the alleged crime unfold in public in real time, but no precedent exists for a case like this, with a defendant like this.

No one alive has seen a race like the 2024 presidential election. For months, if not years, many people have expected a reprise of the 2020 election, a matchup between the sitting president and a former president.

But that hasn’t prevented a crowded primary. On the GOP side, more than a dozen candidates are ostensibly vying for the nomination. Donald Trump’s lead appears prohibitive, but then again, no candidate has ever won his party’s nomination while facing four (so far) separate felony indictments. (Then again, no one has ever lost his party’s nomination while facing four separate felony indictments either.) Ron DeSantis has not budged from his position as the leading challenger to Trump, but his support has weakened, encouraging a large field of Republicans who are hoping for a lucky break, a Trump collapse, a VP nomination, or maybe just some fun travel and a cable-news contract down the road.

[David A. Graham: The first debate is Ramaswamy and the rest]

On the other side, Democratic hesitations about a second Joe Biden term have either receded or dissolved into resignation that he’s running. But his age and the general lukewarm feeling among some voters have ensured that a decent-size shadow field still exists, just waiting in case Biden bows out for some reason.

Behind all this, the possibility of a serious third-party bid, led by either the group No Labels or some other candidate, continues to linger; Cornel West is already running and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is teasing a leap from the Democratic primary to an independent campaign. It adds up to a race that is simple on the surface but strangely confusing just below it. This guide to the candidates—who’s in, who’s out, and who’s somewhere in between—serves as a road map to navigate that. It will be updated as the campaign develops, so check in regularly.

REPUBLICANS (Joe Raedle / Getty) Donald Trump

Who is he?
You know him and you love him. Or hate him. Probably not much in between.

Is he running?
Yes. Trump announced his bid to return to the White House at Mar-a-Lago in November 2022.

Why does he want to run?
Revenge, boredom, rivalry, fear of prosecution, long-standing psychological hang-ups.

[Read: Trump begins the ‘retribution’ tour]

Who wants him to run?
A big tranche of the GOP is still all in on Trump, but it’s a little hard to tell how big. Polling shows that his support among Republicans is all over the place, but he’s clearly not a prohibitive front-runner.

Can he win the nomination?
Yes, but past results are no guarantee of future success.

What else do we know?
More than we could possibly want to.

(Joe Raedle / Getty) Ron DeSantis

Who is he?
The second-term governor of Florida, DeSantis was previously a U.S. representative.

Is he running?
Yes. He announced his run in a trainwreck of an appearance with Elon Musk on Twitter Spaces on May 24.

Why does he want to run?
DeSantis offers the prospect of a synthesis of Trump-style culture warring and bullying and the conservative politics of the early-2010s Republican Party.

Who wants him to run?
From the advent of his campaign, DeSantis presented the prospect of a candidate with Trump’s policies but no Trump. But his fading polling suggests that not many Republicans are interested.

[From the March 2023 issue: How did America’s weirdest, most freedom-obsessed state fall for an authoritarian governor?]

Can he win the nomination?
He doesn’t look like the Trump-toppler today that he did several months ago, but it’s possible.

(Roy Rochlin / Getty) Nikki Haley

Who is she?
Haley, the daughter of immigrants, was governor of South Carolina and then ambassador to the United Nations under Trump.

Is she running?
Yes. She announced her campaign on February 14, saying, “Time for a new generation.”

Why does she want to run?
Haley has tried to steer a path that distances herself from Trump—pointing out his unpopularity—without openly attacking him. She may also be the top foreign-policy hawk in the field.

[Sarah Isgur: What Nikki Haley can learn from Carly Fiorina]

Who wants her to run?
Haley has lagged behind the first tier of candidates, but her strong performance in the first debate could help her.

Can she win the nomination?
Dubious.

(Dylan Hollingsworth / Bloomberg / Getty) Vivek Ramaswamy

Who is he?
A 38-year-old biotech millionaire with a sparkling résumé (Harvard, then Yale Law, where he became friends with Senator J. D. Vance), Ramaswamy has recently become prominent as a crusader against “wokeism” and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing.

Is he running?
Yes. He announced his campaign on February 21.

Why does he want to run?
“We’re in the middle of a national identity crisis,” Ramaswamy said in a somewhat-hectoring launch video. “Faith, patriotism, and hard work have disappeared, only to be replaced by new secular religions like COVIDism, climatism, and gender ideology.”

Who wants him to run?
Ramaswamy has come from nearly nowhere to poll surprisingly well—in national polls, he’s currently third (if distantly so) behind Trump and DeSantis, and he dominated the first debate.

Can he win the nomination?
Probably not. Ramaswamy no longer seems like a mere curiosity, but his slick shtick and questionable pronouncements will remain a drag on him.

(Alex Wong / Getty) Asa Hutchinson

Who is he?
Hutchinson, the formerly longtime member of Congress, just finished a stint as governor of Arkansas.

Is he running?
Yes. Hutchinson announced on April 2 that he is running. It would have been funnier to announce a day earlier, though.

Why does he want to run?
At one time, Hutchinson was a right-wing Republican—he was one of the managers of Bill Clinton’s impeachment—but as the party has changed, he finds himself closer to the center. He’s been very critical of Trump, saying that Trump disqualified himself with his attempts to steal the 2020 election. Hutchinson is also unique in the field for having called on Trump to drop out over his indictment in New York.

Who wants him to run?
Old-school, very conservative Republicans who also detest Trump.

Can he win the nomination?
Unlikely.

(David Becker / The Washington Post / Getty) Tim Scott

Who is he?
A South Carolinian, Scott is the only Black Republican senator.

Is he running?
Yes. He announced his campaign in North Charleston, South Carolina, on May 22.

Why does he want to run?
Unlike some of the others on this list, Scott doesn’t telegraph his ambition quite so plainly, but he’s built a record as a solid Republican. He was aligned with Trump, but never sycophantically attached.

Who wants him to run?
Scott’s Senate colleagues adore him. John Thune of South Dakota, the Senate minority whip, is his first highish-profile endorsement. As DeSantis stumbles, he’s gotten some attention as a possible likable Trump alternative.

Can he win the nomination?
Scott is solidly in the second tier; he’s perpetually said to be on the verge of breaking out but never quite there.

(Megan Varner / Getty) Mike Pence

Who is he?
The former vice president, he also served as the governor of Indiana and a U.S. representative.

Is he running?
Yes. He formally launched his campaign on June 7 with a video and an event in Iowa.

Why does he want to run?
Pence has long harbored White House dreams, and he has a strong conservative-Christian political agenda. His launch video is heavy on clichés and light on specifics beyond promising a kinder face for the Trump agenda.

Who wants him to run?
Conservative Christians and rabbit lovers, but not very many people overall.

[Read: Nobody likes Mike Pence]

Can he win the nomination?
It’s hard to see it happening.

(Ida Mae Astute / Getty) Chris Christie

Who is he?
What a journey this guy has had, from U.S. attorney to respected governor of New Jersey to traffic-jam laughingstock to Trump sidekick to Trump critic. Whew.

Is he running?
Yes. He announced his campaign on June 6 in New Hampshire.

Why does he want to run?
Anyone who runs for president once and loses wants to run again—especially if he thinks the guy who beat him is an idiot, as Christie clearly thinks about Trump. Moreover, he seems agitated to see other Republicans trying to run without criticizing Trump.

Who wants him to run?
Trump-skeptical donors, liberal pundits.

Can he win the nomination?
Highly doubtful.

(Todd Williamson / Getty) Doug Burgum

Who is he?
Do you even pay attention to politics? Nah, just kidding. A self-made software billionaire, Burgum is serving his second term as the governor of North Dakota.

Is he running?
Apparently! He formally
launched his campaign on June 7 in Fargo.

Why does he want to run?
It’s tough to tell. His campaign-announcement video focuses so much on North Dakota that it seems more like a reelection push. He told a state newspaper that he thinks the “silent majority” of Americans wants candidates who aren’t on the extremes. (A wealthy outsider targeting the silent majority? Where have we heard that before?) He also really wants more domestic oil production.

Who wants him to run?
Lots of people expected a governor from the Dakotas to be a candidate in 2024, but they were looking at Kristi Noem of South Dakota. Burgum is very popular at home—he won more than three-quarters of the vote in 2020—but that still amounts to fewer people than the population of Toledo, Ohio.

Can he win the nomination?
“There’s a value to being underestimated all the time,” he has said. “That’s a competitive advantage.” But it’s even better to have a chance, which he doesn’t.

What else do we know?
He’s giving people $20 gift cards in return for donating to his campaign.

(Scott Olson / Getty) Will Hurd

Who is he?
A former CIA officer, Hurd served three terms in the House, representing a San Antonio–area district.

Is he running?
Yes. Hurd announced his campaign on June 22.

Why does he want to run?
Hurd says he has “commonsense” ideas and he is “pissed” that elected officials are dividing Americans. He’s also been an outspoken Trump critic.

Who wants him to run?
As a moderate, youngish Black Republican and someone who cares about defense, he is the sort of candidate whom the party establishment seemed to desire after the now-discarded 2012 GOP autopsy.

Can he win the nomination?
No.

(Mandel Ngan / Getty) Francis Suarez

Who is he?
Suarez is the popular second-term mayor of Miami and the president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors.

Is he running?
No. He suspended his campaign on August 29, less than three months after his June 15 entry.

Why did he want to run?
Suarez touted his youth—he’s 45—and said in October 2022, “I’m someone who believes in a positive aspirational message. I’m someone who has a track record of success and a formula for success.”

Who wanted him to run?
Is there really room for another moderate-ish Republican in the race? Apparently not! Despite dabbling in fundraising shenanigans, Suarez failed to make the first Republican debate (or any other splash).

Could he have won the nomination?
No way.

(Drew Angerer / Getty) Larry Hogan

Who is he?
Hogan left office this year, after serving two terms as governor of Maryland.

Is he running?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Hogan ruled himself out of the GOP race on March 5, saying he was worried it would help Trump win the nomination, but he is now rumored as a potential No Labels candidate, even though such a run might hand the presidency to … Trump.

Why does he want to run?
Hogan has argued that his experience of governing a very blue state as a Republican is a model: “We’ve been really successful outside of Washington, where everything appears to be broken and nothing but divisiveness and dysfunction.”

Who wants him to run?
Dead-ender centrists.

Could he win the nomination?
No.

(John Locher / AP) Chris Sununu

Who is he?
The governor of New Hampshire, he is the little brother of former Senator John E. Sununu and the son of former White House Chief of Staff John H. Sununu.

Is he running?
No. On June 5, after weighing a campaign, he announced that he would not run. Warning about the dangers of a Trump reprise, he said, “Every candidate needs to understand the responsibility of getting out and getting out quickly if it’s not working.” Points for taking his own advice!

Why did he want to run?
Sununu seems disgusted by a lot of Washington politics and saw his success in New Hampshire, a purple-blue state, as a model for small-government conservatism. He is also a prominent Trump critic.

Who wanted him to run?
Trump-skeptical Republicans, old-school conservatives.

Could he have won the nomination?
No.

(Scott Olson / Getty) Mike Pompeo

Who is he?
Pompeo, a former member of Congress, led the CIA and was secretary of state under Trump.

Is he running?
No. On April 14, Pompeo announced that he wasn’t running. “This is not that time or that moment for me to seek elected office again,” he said.

Why did he want to run?
Pompeo has always been ambitious, and he seems to think he can combine MAGA proximity with a hawkish foreign-policy approach.

Who wanted him to run?
That’s not entirely clear.

Could he have won the nomination?
Maybe, but probably not.

(Misha Friedman / Getty) Glenn Youngkin

Who is he?
Youngkin, the former CEO of the private-equity Carlyle Group, was elected governor of Virginia in 2021.

Is he running?
Probably not. He said on May 1 that he wasn’t running “this year.” But he seems to be rethinking that as Ron DeSantis’s campaign sputters.

Why does he want to run?
Youngkin is a bit of a cipher; he ran largely on education issues, and has sought to tighten abortion laws in Virginia, so far to no avail.

Who wants him to run?
Rupert Murdoch, reportedly.

Can he win the nomination?
Certainly not if he isn’t running.

(Sam Wolfe / Bloomberg / Getty) Mike Rogers

Who is he?
Rogers is a congressman from Alabam—wait, no, sorry, that’s the other Representative Mike Rogers. This one is from Michigan and retired in 2015. He was previously an FBI agent and was head of the Intelligence Committee while on Capitol Hill.

Is he running?
No. He thought about it but announced in late August that he would run for U.S. Senate instead.

Why did he want to run?
He laid out some unassailably broad ideas for a campaign in an interview with Fox News, including a focus on innovation and civic education, but it’s hard to tell what exactly the goal is here. “This is not a vanity project for me,” he added, which, okay, sure.

Who wanted him to run?
It’s not clear that anyone even noticed he was running.

Could he have won the nomination?
Nope.

(Todd Williamson / Getty) Larry Elder

Who is he?
A longtime conservative radio host and columnist, he ran as a Republican in the unsuccessful 2021 attempt to recall California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Is he running?
Allegedly, yes. He announced his campaign on Tucker Carlson’s Fox News show on April 20. He’s barely been heard from since.

Why does he want to run?
Glad you asked! “America is in decline, but this decline is not inevitable,” he tweeted. “We can enter a new American Golden Age, but we must choose a leader who can bring us there. That’s why I’m running for President.” We don’t have any idea what that means either.

Who wants him to run?
Impossible to say at this stage, but deep-blue California is a tough launching pad for any conservative, especially an unseasoned candidate. This recall campaign also dredged up various unflattering information about his past.

Can he win the nomination?
Having missed out on the first debate, any hope Elder had is gone.

(Todd Williamson / Getty) Rick Perry

Who is he?
Perry was a three-term governor of Texas before serving as energy secretary under Donald Trump. He’s also run for president three times: in 2012, 2016, and … I forget the third one. Oops.

Is he running?
Oh, right! The third one is 2024, maybe. He told CNN in May that he’s considering a run. Nothing’s been heard since.

Why does he want to run?
He didn’t say, but he’s struggled to articulate much of a compelling case to Republican voters beyond the fact that he’s from Texas, he looks good in a suit, and he wants to be president, gosh darn it.

Who wants him to run?
Probably no one. As Mike Pompeo already discovered, there’s not much of a market for a run-of-the-mill former Trump Cabinet member in the primary—especially one who had such a forgettable turn as secretary, mostly remembered for being dragged peripherally into both the first Trump impeachment and election subversion.

Can he win the nomination?
The third time would not be a charm.

(Joe Raedle / Getty) Rick Scott

Who is he?
Before his current gig as a U.S. senator from Florida, Scott was governor and chief executive of a health-care company that committed massive Medicare fraud.

Is he running?
The New York Times says he’s considering it, though an aide said Scott is running for reelection to the Senate. He’d be the fourth Floridian in the race.

Why does he want to run?
A Scott campaign would raise a fascinating question: What if you took Trump’s pose and ideology but removed all the charisma and, instead of promising to protect popular entitlement programs, aimed to demolish them?

Who wants him to run?
Not Mitch McConnell.

Can he win the nomination?
lol

DEMOCRATS (Joshua Roberts / Getty) Joe Biden

Who is he?
After decades of trying, Biden is the president of the United States.

Is he running?
Yes. Biden formally announced his run on April 25.

Why does he want to run?
Biden’s slogan is apparently “Let’s finish the job.” He centered his launch video on the theme of freedom, but underlying all of this is his apparent belief that he may be the only person who can defeat Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup.

[Read: The case for a primary challenge to Joe Biden]

Who wants him to run?
There’s the catch. Some prominent Democrats support his bid for a second term, but voters have consistently told pollsters that they don’t want him to run again.

Can he win the nomination?
Barring unforeseen catastrophe, yes. No incumbent president has lost the nomination in the modern era, and Biden has pushed through changes to the Democratic-primary process that make him an even more prohibitive favorite.

What else do we know?
Biden is already the oldest person to be elected president and to serve as president, so a second term would set more records.

(Bill Clark / Getty) Dean Phillips

Who is he?
Phillips, a mildly unorthodox and interesting figure, is a Minnesota moderate serving his third term in the House.

Is he running?
Who can even tell? In July, he said he was considering it. In an August 21 interview, he said he was unlikely to run, but would encourage other Democrats to do so. Now, after finding few other Democrats willing to run, he says he’s not ruling it out.

Why does he want to run?
Phillips, who at 54 passes for young in politics, has been publicly critical of superannuated Democrats sticking around too long, and he says Biden is too old to run again.

Who wants him to run?
Although it’s true that many Democrats think Biden is too old, that doesn’t mean they’re willing to do anything about it—or that Phillips is the man they want to replace him. Although Phillips claims he has “been overwhelmed with outreach and encouragement,” this looks more like a messaging move than a serious sprint at the moment.

Can he win the nomination?
Not in 2024.

What else do we know?
His grandmother was “Dear Abby.”

(Chip Somodevilla / Getty) Kamala Harris

Who is she?
Harris is the vice president of the United States.

Is she running?
No, but if Biden were to bow out, she’d be the immediate favorite.

Why does she want to run?
One problem with her 2020 presidential campaign was the lack of a clear answer to this question. Perhaps running on the Biden-Harris legacy would help fill in the blank.

Who wants her to run?
Some Democrats are excited about the prospect of nominating a woman of color, but generally Harris’s struggles as a candidate and in defining a role for herself (in the admittedly impossible position of VP) have resulted in nervousness about her as a standard-bearer.

Can she win the nomination?
Not right now.

(Matthew Cavanaugh / Getty) Pete Buttigieg

Who is he?
Mayor Pete is Secretary Pete now, overseeing the Department of Transportation.

Is he running?
No, but he would also be a likely candidate if Biden stepped away.

Why does he want to run?
Just as he was four years ago, Buttigieg is a young, ambitious politician with a moderate, technocratic vision of government.

Who wants him to run?
Buttigieg’s fans are passionate, and Biden showed that moderates remain a force in the party.

Can he win the nomination?
Not at this moment.

(Scott Olson / Getty) Bernie Sanders

Who is he?
The senator from Vermont is changeless, ageless, ever the same.

Is he running?
No, but if Biden dropped out, it’s hard to believe he wouldn’t seriously consider another go. A top adviser even says so.

Why does he want to run?
Sanders still wants to tax billionaires, level the economic playing field, and push a left-wing platform.

Who wants him to run?
Sanders continues to have the strong support of a large portion of the Democratic electorate, especially younger voters.

Can he win the nomination?
Two consecutive tries have shown that he’s formidable, but can’t close. Maybe the third time’s the charm?

(Chip Somodevilla / Getty) Gretchen Whitmer

Who is she?
Whitmer cruised to a second term as governor of Michigan in 2022.

Is she running?
No.

Why would she want to run?
It’s a little early to know, but her reelection campaign focused on abortion rights.

Who wants her to run?
Whitmer would check a lot of boxes for Democrats. She’s a fresh face, she’s a woman, and she’s proved she can win in the upper Midwest against a MAGA candidate.

Can she win the nomination?
Not if she isn’t running.

(Lucas Jackson / Reuters) Marianne Williamson

Who is she?
If you don’t know Williamson from her popular writing on spirituality, then you surely remember her somewhat woo-woo Democratic bid in 2020.

Is she running?
Yes. Williamson announced her campaign on March 4 in D.C.

Why does she want to run?
“It is our job to create a vision of justice and love that is so powerful that it will override the forces of hatred and injustice and fear,” she said at her campaign launch. She has also said that she wants to give voters a choice. “The question I ask myself is not ‘What is my path to victory?’ My question is ‘What is my path to radical truth-telling?’ There are some things that need to be said in this country.”

Who wants her to run?
Williamson has her fans, but she doesn’t have a clear political constituency. Also, her campaign is perpetually falling apart.

Can she win the nomination?
Nah.

(Brian Cassella / Chicago Tribune / Getty) J. B. Pritzker

Who is he?
The governor of Illinois is both a scion of a wealthy family and a “nomadic warrior.”

Is he running?
No.

Why does he want to run?
After years of unfulfilled interest in elected office, Pritzker has established himself as a muscular proponent of progressivism in a Democratic stronghold.

Who wants him to run?
Improbably for a billionaire, Pritzker has become a darling of the Sanders-style left, as well as a memelord.

Can he win the nomination?
Not now.

THIRD-PARTY AND INDEPENDENT (Brian Cassella / Chicago Tribune / Getty) Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Who is he?
The son of a presidential candidate, the nephew of another, and the nephew of a president, Kennedy is a longtime environmental activist and also a chronic crank.

Is he running?
Yes. He announced his run for the Democratic nomination on April 19, but many indications suggest he will soon announce he’s running as an independent instead.

Why does he want to run?
Running for president is a family tradition. He’s running a campaign arranged around his esoteric combination of left-wing interests (the environment, drug prices) and right-wing causes (vaccine skepticism, anger about social-media “deplatforming”), but tending toward extremely dark places.

Who wants him to run?
Soon after he announced his campaign, Kennedy reached double digits in polls against Biden—a sign of dissatisfaction with the president as well as Kennedy’s name recognition. It has since become clear that Democratic voters are not interested in anti-Semitic kookery, though some other fringe elements might be.

Can he win?
No. The relevant question is whether a third-party candidacy would help Biden, Trump, or neither. The short answer is no one knows, but he very well might boost the president’s chances.

(Tom Williams / Getty) Joe Manchin

Who is he?
A Democratic U.S. senator and former governor of West Virginia, he was the pivotal centrist vote for the first two years of Joe Biden’s term. I’ve described him as “a middle-of-the-road guy with good electoral instincts, decent intentions, and bad ideas.”

Is he running?
It’s very hard to tell how serious he is. He has visited Iowa, and is being courted by No Labels, the nonpartisan centrist organization, to carry its banner. He’s shown no signs of running, and would stand no chance, in the Democratic primary.

Why does he want to run?
Manchin would arguably have less power as a third-party president than he does as a crucial swing senator, but he faces perhaps the hardest reelection campaign of his life in 2024, as the last Democrat standing in a now solidly Republican state. He also periodically seems personally piqued at Biden and the Democrats over slights perceived or real.

Who wants him to run?
No Labels would love to have someone like him, a high-profile figure who’s willing to buck his party and has policies that would appeal to voters from either party. It’s hard to imagine he’d have much of an organic base of support, but Democrats are terrified he’d siphon off enough votes to hand Trump or another Republican the win in a three-way race.

Can he win?
“Make no mistake, I will win any race I enter,” he said in April. If that is true, do not expect to see him in the presidential race.

(Frederick M. Brown / Getty) Cornel West

Who is he?
West is a philosopher, a theologian, a professor, a preacher, a gadfly, a progressive activist, an actor, a spoken-word recording artist, an author … and we’re probably missing a few.

Is he running?
Yes. He announced his campaign on the People’s Party ticket on June 5.

Why does he want to run?
“In these bleak times, I have decided to run for truth and justice, which takes the form of running for president of the United States,” he said in his announcement video. West is a fierce leftist who has described Trump as a “neo-fascist” and Biden as a “milquetoast neoliberal.”

Who wants him to run?
West was a high-profile backer of Bernie Sanders, and it’s easy to imagine him winning over some of Sanders’s fervent fans. The People’s Party is relatively new and unproven, and doesn’t have much of a base of its own.

Can he win?
Let’s hear from Brother West: “Do we have what it takes? We shall see,” he said. “But some of us are going to go down fighting, go down swinging, with style and a smile.” Sounds like a no, but it should be a lively, entertaining campaign.