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Putin

We’re Lucky Biden’s in Charge

The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com › ideas › archive › 2023 › 10 › biden-foreign-policy-israel-hamas › 675769

President Joe Biden and his national-security team began their time in office in 2021 intending to concentrate on confronting China’s rise. The state of the world has not allowed such a singular focus. First came the American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return to power. Next was Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Now Hamas has carried out its barbaric terrorist attack against Israeli citizens, triggering a forceful response from Israel and potentially a major interstate war in the Middle East.

Americans are lucky to have President Biden and his foreign-policy team in charge of national security right now. Their experience and knowledge extends not just to China and Asia but to the world, and they have made smart moves in defense of American interests and values.

From the start, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President Biden both traveled to Israel to signal strong American support for a democratic ally. In times of crisis, allies need to show up; once there, Blinken and Biden delivered appropriate messages about shared values, Israel’s right to self-defense, and Hamas’s illegitimacy and terrorist intent. Biden also pledged more military assistance to Israel and requested that Congress secure the necessary funds. (It would be nice if the majority in our House of Representatives could show a little more leadership during this time of crisis, but that’s another matter.)

At the same time, the Biden administration has sent well-crafted signals to deter the expansion of the Israeli-Hamas conflict into a larger regional war. The combination of deploying aircraft carriers and battleships to the region, dispatching Blinken to conduct shuttle diplomacy with Arab states, and quietly warning Hezbollah and Iran of the consequences of war (I’m guessing on this last point) is textbook coercive diplomacy.

[Franklin Foer: Inside Biden’s ‘Hug Bibi’ strategy]

Notably, Biden has also worked with Israel and Egypt to allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. Obviously, much more is needed. Washington should step up pressure on Israel to provide Palestinians in Gaza with water, electricity, and the means to meet other basic needs. But Biden and his national-security team are doing more to provide relief than any other leader or country. Appointing Ambassador David Satterfield as the special envoy for Middle East humanitarian issues to coordinate these efforts was swift and wise. Satterfield is among America’s most respected and experienced diplomats in the Middle East.

Calling upon the Israeli Defense Forces to abide by the international laws of war was another prudent move on the part of the Biden team. American words of warning have had limited effect to date, however. Too many Palestinian noncombatants are being killed daily. But, unlike other American politicians, Biden has not given the IDF the green light to do whatever it wants in Gaza. Israel’s national-security interests are best served by limiting noncombatant casualties: Killing Palestinian civilians strengthens local support for Hamas and fuels global anti-Israel protests, including in the United States. Washington should continue to press Israel urgently on this front.

Biden and his team have successfully worked to hold back the momentum toward a full-scale Israeli ground invasion of Gaza, in an effort to buy time to get more hostages released. Two weeks ago, Israeli leaflets told Palestinians in northern Gaza that they had just 24 hours to evacuate south. As of now, Israeli soldiers have not begun a full-scale ground assault. In addition to making space for hostage negotiations, delaying the ground invasion could also help reduce the number of civilian casualties.

Finally, Biden has warned Israeli leaders and society not to let today’s rage become tomorrow’s mistake. The U.S. president cautioned his Israeli counterparts to avoid making the same missteps that Washington did after 9/11. I would like to hear more nuance from Biden regarding this analogy. Not all U.S. actions after 9/11 were unsuccessful blunders. Invading Iraq was a mistake, but in Afghanistan, President George W. Bush was right to attack al-Qaeda and its hosts. The overwhelming majority of the American people, and most of the world, supported that military operation. Washington’s biggest mistake in Afghanistan was not securing the total defeat of al-Qaeda in 2001, which allowed the terrorists to seek refuge in Pakistan.

That Hamas may be setting a trap for Israel is a legitimate concern. Hamas wants the IDF to come in big on the ground into Gaza, kill a lot of civilians, get stuck in a losing quagmire, stimulate mass protests throughout the Arab world, and pull other terrorist organizations and countries into war. But doing nothing is not an option for Israel, just as it wasn’t for Bush in 2001—however much al-Qaeda, similarly, wanted to see America bloody itself.

The United States should not have remained at war with the Taliban for 20 years. But were we wrong to try to help build a more pluralistic society and democratic government in Afghanistan? I don’t think so. We failed, but our failure was not inevitable. From this analogy, Israelis should not take the lesson that democracy in Gaza (or the West Bank) is impossible, or that terrorists will always rule there.

Biden has encouraged Israeli leaders to think harder about their end game, rightly asking what happens after they succeed in overthrowing Hamas. Biden has even revived ideas about a two-state solution—a notion buried years ago both by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing allies and by Hamas. As Biden said earlier this month, “There must be a path to a Palestinian state.”

Discussing long-term solutions or promising negotiations might be premature today. But eventually, those who seek a lasting peace must contemplate creative solutions, rather than just hoping that Israel can live securely while surrounded by terrorist organizations that seek its destruction. That strategy has failed. So, too, has the policy of regional and world leaders who ceased to press for the democratic rights of Palestinians and accepted Hamas’s dictatorship as inevitable. Palestinians deserve democratic, sovereign self-rule. To achieve it will require a constructive new policy from Israel and greater engagement from the United States and other regional actors.

[Franklin Foer: Biden will be guided by his Zionism]

Compared with Biden, other alleged friends of the Middle East have done little to provide relief to Palestinians, prevent the conflict from spreading, or come up with proposals for a lasting peace. For years, Vladimir Putin has touted his friendship with Netanyahu and rapprochement with Israel. But in the moment of crisis, Putin did not offer Israel much support in word or deed. Just months ago, many were praising Xi Jinping’s diplomatic victory in getting Iran and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations. Some called it the beginning of a new Chinese era, and the end of American hegemony, in the Middle East. (I had a different view.) However, Xi has done almost nothing to defuse this conflict, prevent its spread, or provide relief to Palestinian civilians. Instead, everyone is looking to Biden for leadership. And he is trying to provide it.

Biden may fail. People judge crises and wars only by how they end. No one will praise Biden and Blinken for their initial efforts if this conflict causes an enormous number of civilian casualties or pulls in Lebanon, Syria, Iran, or, most alarming, the United States. Biden and his team face only hard choices with difficult trade-offs, and no easy diplomatic solutions are in sight.

But so far, I’m impressed with what American diplomacy has achieved, and grateful that this president and this team are in power at this precarious moment in history.

How much does Russia stand to benefit from turmoil in the Middle East?

Euronews

www.euronews.com › 2023 › 10 › 25 › how-much-does-russia-stand-to-benefit-from-turmoil-in-the-middle-east

With Putin's good relations with Israel and the Arab world, Russia has a vested interest in continuing to play both sides while the world remains distracted from its failed war in Ukraine. However, the advantage is only temporary, David Kirichenko writes.