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Twitter

The Co-opting of Twitter

The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com › technology › archive › 2023 › 12 › twitter-substack-elon-musk-alt-tech › 676966

After Donald Trump was banned from Twitter in 2021, Donald Trump Jr. made a public appeal to Elon Musk for help. “Wanted to come up with something to deal with some of this nonsense and the censorship that’s going on right now, obviously only targeted one way,” he said in a video that was posted to Instagram. “Why doesn’t Elon Musk create a social-media platform?” (The video was titled “Here’s How Elon Musk Could Save Free Speech.”)

This was—I think we can say it—prescient.

A little more than a year later, Musk was promising not an entirely new site, but a hostile takeover of a familiar one. And he explicitly presented this action as a corrective to right-wing grievances about “shadowbanning” and censorship. He promised to use his new platform to combat the “woke mind virus” sweeping the nation and said he wanted to save free speech. (His supposed devotion to unfettered expression, it’s worth noting, sometimes comes second to his personal feuds.)

So here we are. Liberal activists used to be the ones suggesting that the social network could be used to organize in defiance of the state; now technology accelerationists are the ones saying this. “Elon acquired Twitter, fired the wokes, and removed DC’s central point of control over social media,” the tech-world iconoclast Balaji Srinivasan wrote in November. At a conference he led in Amsterdam the month before, he talked about how the tech world could build a “parallel establishment” with its own schools, financial systems, and media. Co-opting existing organizations could work, too.

[Read: Twitter is a far-right social network]

Previously, the “alt-tech” ecosystem was a bit of a sideshow. It encompassed moderation-averse social-media sites that popped up in the Trump era and resembled popular services such as Twitter and Facebook; their creators typically resented that their views had been deplatformed elsewhere. Parler and especially Gab (which is run by a spiky Christian nationalist) were never going to be used by very many normal people—apart from their political content, they were junky-looking and covered in spam.

But now, alt-tech is emerging from within, Alien-style. Twitter’s decade of tinkering with content moderation in response to public pressure—adding line items to its policies, expanding its partnerships with civil-society organizations—is over. Now we have X, a rickety, reactionary platform with a skeleton crew behind it. Substack, which got its start by offering mainstream journalists lucrative profit-sharing arrangements, has embraced a Muskian set of free-speech principles: As Jonathan Katz reported for The Atlantic last month, the company’s leadership is unwilling to remove avowed Nazis from its platform. (In a statement published last week, Hamish McKenzie, one of Substack’s co-founders, said, “We don’t like Nazis either,” but he and his fellow executives are “committed to upholding and protecting freedom of expression, even when it hurts.”) The trajectory of both resembles that of Rumble, which started out as a YouTube alternative offering different monetization options for creators, then pulled itself far to the political fringes and has been very successful.

These transformations are more about culture than actual product changes. Musk has tinkered plenty with the features of Twitter/X in the past year, though he’s also talked about changing far more than he actually has. More notable, he’s brought back the accounts of conspiracy theorists, racists, and anti-Semites, and he got rid of Twitter’s policy against the use of a trans person’s deadname as a form of harassment. In a recent Rumble video, the white supremacists Richard Spencer and Nick Fuentes praised Musk’s management of the platform, saying that the “window has shifted noticeably on issues like white identity” during his tenure. And in support of anecdotal claims that hate speech rose after Musk’s acquisition of Twitter, a team of researchers has shown that this was actually the case. They observed a large spike right after the acquisition, and even after that spike had somewhat abated, hate speech still remained higher than pre-acquisition levels, “hinting at a new baseline level of hate speech post-Musk.”  

Social-media platforms are kind of like parties: People’s perception of them matters almost as much as the reality. You can see changing attitudes about whom Twitter or X is for in recent polling from the Pew Research Center. Two years ago, 60 percent of Republican or Republican-leaning Twitter users thought the site was having a negative impact on American democracy. In 2023, the number was just 21 percent. And the percentage of those users who thought Twitter was having a positive impact jumped from 17 to 43 percent. Conversely, Democrats and Democratic-leaning users were more likely this year than they were two years ago to say that Twitter was having a negative impact on American democracy, and less likely to say it was having a positive one. Pew also found a partisan divide regarding abuse and harassment on the platform, with 65 percent of Democratic users saying these are major problems and just 29 percent of Republican users agreeing. The gap between the two positions has quadrupled in the past two years.

[Read: To be honest with you, no influencer has been treated more unfairly than Donald Trump Jr.]

When I spoke with Keith Burghardt, a computer scientist at the University of Southern California who worked on the hate-speech study, he emphasized that the research doesn’t address the specific cause of the increase. It could be that reductions in staff or the disbanding of Twitter’s Trust and Safety Council had a significant effect. Or that may have stemmed from other changes in moderation policy or enforcement that aren’t visible to the public. It could be that Elon Musk’s public statements made people rush to the site to see what they could get away with saying. “In fact, it’s important to mention that we found hate speech increased a little bit even before Elon Musk bought Twitter,” Burghardt told me. “Perhaps because of users anticipating a perceived drop in moderation.”

This is not an end point but a funky state of limbo. Instagram’s Threads signed up 100 million people in its first week, but activity dropped after the big debut and growth appears to have slowed. Platform migration is complicated, and early research has found that many people who are unhappy on X have not left the site entirely. Instead, they tend to make secondary accounts on alternative sites. They show “wavering commitment” to staying on X, while still being more active there than they are on alternatives like Bluesky or Threads. Pew data published in May showed that the majority of “highly active tweeters” were still Democrats and Democratic leaners. However, these people were posting less frequently than they had been before, and this data was collected before Musk’s recent public display of anti-Semitism.

“Does the Musk Twitter Takeover Matter?” Deana Rohlinger, a sociology professor at Florida State University, asked in a February analysis of the site’s supposed mutation. The question was rhetorical; when I spoke with her recently, she said the answer was definitely yes. “Despite its flaws,” Twitter was something of a common space in its prime, she said. New microblogging sites may want to serve that same purpose, but she isn’t sure that it will be possible. The hostility between these two entrenched, polarized online factions may be so much that they just don’t want to share a space anymore. “Perhaps it’s a reflection of our broader political environment and media environment,” she said. “I don’t know that you can re-create what Twitter did, because things have changed entirely too much. It’s not 2006 anymore.” The Twitter diaspora, she thought, was cursed to just drift.


As alt-tech has taken over the mainstream, the old mainstream has found itself in a funny position. Five years after the #DeleteFacebook campaign, many are cheering Mark Zuckerberg—a literal Elon Musk sparring partner—as a hero in the platform wars. Our only response to the current state of the web seems to be a sigh of resignation: Sure, let’s just do everything on Instagram.

X Is Elon Musk’s Lonely Party Now

The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com › newsletters › archive › 2023 › 12 › x-is-elon-musks-lonely-party-now › 676977

This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here.

As we close out the year, it’s official: The Twitter we once knew is long gone. Elon Musk’s reinvention of the platform, from its name down to its core features, has rendered it nearly unrecognizable to users. The lead writers of this newsletter, Tom Nichols and Lora Kelley, have each spent time thinking and writing about X, as well as posting and lurking on the platform. I chatted with them recently about Musk’s murky logic and the new internet era he’s accidentally ushered in.

First, here are three new stories from The Atlantic:

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‘It Still Has a Kitchen’

Isabel Fattal: Do either of you call it X? Does anybody call it X?

Tom Nichols: Nobody I know calls it X. What stupid branding, to go on the internet with something called X. It’s like Musk just doesn’t understand the site that he bought—I think that’s been a problem from day one. Musk wanted the new Twitter to be just like the old Twitter, except it would be a place where he and all of his friends are cool.

A lot of people use the metaphor of a playground, but it’s like walking into a party in an apartment building, and people aren’t laughing at your jokes, so you buy the whole building and say, This is my apartment now, and I own the building, and you have to like me and laugh at my jokes.

Lora Kelley: Musk made changes to the algorithm to help his own posts get more engagement, according to reporting earlier this year. He wants it to be the place where he’s the funniest guy.

Something I’ve heard comedian friends say in the past is: If you’re doing a stand-up set and the audience isn’t laughing, it’s not that there’s something wrong with the audience. There’s something wrong with the jokes that you’re telling. I think Elon Musk is trying to use his billions of dollars to reorient that logic, and it’s not really working.

Isabel: Tell me how you each use Twitter (uh, X) right now.

Tom: I don’t use Twitter professionally as much as I do to post cat pictures and talk about vintage television and swap nerdy tips about gaming. I do post stories from The Atlantic, and I do push my books every chance I get. But I first came to Twitter years ago, when I was a professor, and, as an academic, I had many other resources for substantive conversations—so Twitter was mostly about political arguments while posting little life bits here and there.

These days, my political engagement with the platform has dropped significantly, because it’s too tiring to have to wade through all the crap.

Isabel: Have you had a productive political debate on Twitter in the past six months?

Tom: No. If you had asked about the past six years, I would have said yes.

Lora: I’m largely a lurker at this point. I was never the biggest Twitter user; I have always used it to share article links and do some reporting. I do have this thread of anthropomorphic teeth, my finest expression of Twitter use.

Tom: I have not seen this. Is this something I need?

Lora: Yes!

Isabel: At this point, Twitter isn’t much use for reliable news, but there was a time when users were relying on the platform for news updates—maybe too much. Do you think that an overreliance on Twitter for news was a mistake even in the pre-Musk era?

Tom: It was always a mistake to rely solely on Twitter for news. But it was really useful. I’ll actually say a good thing about Twitter being less useful for news, which is that it doesn’t allow people to live in the moment of a national crisis all day. They actually have to unplug.

Lora: I agree with Tom that relying solely on Twitter for news, to the extent that people were doing that, was a mistake. But I did find it useful to hear directly from people who were living through news events—the day-to-day experiences of living in this country during times of change. I used to find sources for articles on Twitter, but it’s gotten less useful since Musk made changes to features such as search and DM.

It’s a shame that that’s gone. But the site has gotten so bad lately that it’s easy to idealize what it was like before Musk took over. People were being harassed and sharing all kinds of weird, funky information back then, even if the owner of the site wasn’t personally pointing users to this information.

Isabel: We know that the platform has lost some of its users under Musk. Do you think we could see a mass exodus in the coming months?

Tom: All good parties end up in the kitchen, with a small group of people that are having a lot of fun because they’ve moved away from everything. Twitter still has a kitchen; you’re still connected to the people you were connected to five years ago or three years ago. Every now and then, some uninvited doofuses drunkenly stumble through. But by and large, we’re still having fun, just with a smaller group.

We haven’t hit the point where everybody leaves, but there are now multiple places to go in the same building: Bluesky, Threads. It used to be that Twitter was pretty much the only place in the building where there was a good party. Now the party’s dispersed. That’s all Musk really achieved: reminding people that there are other options, and making it conceivable for other platforms to pick up the slack.

Lora: I do think that this has been a gift to Meta and Mark Zuckerberg. It’s ironic: A lot of people are flocking to Threads, but a few years ago, a lot of people in the media and in general wouldn’t have flooded to a Zuckerberg-operated product.

Tom: Elon Musk has achieved the impossible: He’s made people think well of Mark Zuckerberg.

Isabel: How do you each approach the idea of leaving X? Is there one line the platform could cross that would make it impossible to stay?

Tom: The people who leave annoy me, because they’re like the people who say, “If Trump’s reelected, I’m moving to Canada.” You don’t solve anything by going anywhere. You stay and you voice your objections, and you communicate with the people that you want to communicate with.

The one thing that could kill off Twitter is if Musk removes the block function. Then I think everyone would have to leave, because it would become unmanageable.

Lora: For me, it might be less of a dramatic “I’m quitting and never coming back” and more of a decline in my usage, which has already been happening. As someone who writes about these topics, it’s interesting for me to keep an eye on things, but I’m already finding the site less useful.

Tom: We’re never going to get to the end of Twitter, but we’re at the end of Twitter as the most influential social-media site. I also think that could change. If Musk were to leave and grown-ups were back in charge of Twitter, Twitter could actually come back.

Lora: I also wonder if the era of these big, dominant social-media companies is winding down, especially for younger users who are coming of age on the internet. For a few years now, a lot of younger people have been moving toward direct messages, group messages, and smaller-format social-media experiences rather than posting to the world on a feed.

Tom: In that sense, Musk broke the spell. He taught people that they can live without deep engagement on social media.

Related:

Twitter’s demise is about so much more than Elon Musk. The co-opting of Twitter

Evening Read

Illustration by Matteo Giuseppe Pani. Source: Getty.

Why Black Jesus Made My Grandmother Uncomfortable

By A.J. Verdelle

When I was a tween, and just beginning to be conscious about the giving of gifts, my sisters and I were Christmas shopping at one of the festive pop-up markets in our corner of the city. We found a stellar gift for one of our grandmothers, which we knew for sure she would love …

By her own careful design, Ma Jones was the personification of Black matriarchy: loving, hovering, caring, devoted almost to the point of martyrdom. She worked three jobs not for herself, but for the family; not for herself, but for our future. Not one of us doubted that she modeled herself after Jesus—his behaviors, his ideals …

We found a painting of Jesus who was as chocolate brown as Ma Jones. I can still see her—dark skin ringed with wisdom lines, showing age in the same way as trees …

When gift-giving time came, my sisters and I worked as a team to ceremonially reveal our studiously selected present. Our grandmother looked on, smiling. We carefully unsheeted our Jesus, and we watched our grandmother as recognition slowly dawned … Our grandmother turned and left the room, holding her hand over her mouth. Sacrilege!

Read the full article.

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Watch. The Color Purple (in theaters) finds its own rhythm in a tear-jerking and exultant epic.

Read. Condolence, a new poem by L. A. Johnson:

“After the store-bought Christmas / dinner was ordered     purchased / picked up by me     and presented on / ceramic dinner plates because / it is Christmas     after all.

Play our daily crossword.

Katherine Hu contributed to this newsletter.

When you buy a book using a link in this newsletter, we receive a commission. Thank you for supporting The Atlantic.

America’s Spam-Call Scourge

The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com › newsletters › archive › 2023 › 12 › americas-spam-call-scourge › 676944

This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here.

Any person with a phone knows that spam calls are a real problem in the United States. But fighting them is like playing whack-a-mole.

First, here are four new stories from The Atlantic:

The English-muffin problem George T. Conway III on how the Colorado ruling changed his mind The Colorado Supreme Court decision is true originalism. Twitter’s demise is about so much more than Elon Musk.

Robocall Whack-a-Mole

In a classic Seinfeld scene, Jerry answers a phone call from a telemarketer, says he’s busy, and asks if he can call them back at home later. “I’m sorry, we’re not allowed to do that,” the marketer replies.

"Oh,” Jerry says, “I guess you don’t want people calling you at home.”

“No.”

“Well, now you know how I feel,” Jerry says, before hanging up to the sound of studio laughter.

It’s a quintessential Seinfeld joke, trenchant about the peeves of everyday life in America. Calls from telemarketers were already a well-known annoyance in the 1990s, but both telemarketing and spam calls have morphed into a much more common—and more sophisticated—problem in the decades since. Whenever my phone rings, I experience a few feelings in quick succession: curiosity about who might be calling, followed by dread that it’s a spammer, followed by a mix of guilt and intrigue about the possibility that whoever is calling might actually be someone important. And that’s only if my phone actually rings; so pockmarked is my phone log with spam calls that I’ve taken to leaving my phone on “Do Not Disturb” much of the time.

Unwanted calls have been a problem for decades, at least since an enterprising consultant created a “sucker list” of potential customers on behalf of Ford in the 1960s. By the late ’80s, predictive dialing meant that telemarketers were beginning to drive Americans up the wall. In 2003, Congress established a national Do Not Call registry, which charged telemarketers with a hefty fine anytime they contacted someone on the list. Legitimate telemarketing actors backed down, and the effort brought Americans relief for a short time—until an army of robocallers working on behalf of unscrupulous and spammy companies made things even worse.

No longer did you need to manually annoy Americans; by the late aughts, computers could make high volumes of spam calls for you. In 2009, the Federal Trade Commission enacted a rule making marketing robocalls illegal unless the recipient has given the caller prior consent. (Some robocalls, such as notifications from schools about a snow day, remain legal.) But the government has struggled to enforce this rule. The Federal Communications Commission, another government agency combating the issue, has levied some fines—though many scammers simply can’t pay them—and supported efforts to stem spoof calls. YouMail, a robocall-blocking service, estimated that more than 4.5 billion robocalls were placed last month—about 1,700 calls a second. That’s more than 13 calls per person over the course of the month. About one-fifth of those were scams, and another third were telemarketing calls. It’s inexpensive for scammers to blanket consumers with calls, with the goal of getting even a small percentage to fall for it. The government is playing a game of robocall whack-a-mole.

A spokesperson for the FCC told me that protecting consumers from scams is among the department’s highest priorities, adding that the number of complaints about unwanted calls has trended downward in recent years. The same trend is true for the FTC’s complaints. Fear of being scammed looms large in Americans’ psyches: New data from Gallup found that being tricked by a scammer into sending money or sharing access to a financial account was the second-highest victimization concern (behind identity theft), with 57 percent of respondents saying they worried about it frequently or occasionally. (Far fewer said that they worried to the same extent about such crimes as murder and burglary.)

Some of the survey respondents said that people they knew, including family members, had been victims. Seniors are especially vulnerable to scam calls. “Grandparent scams,” which try to trick elderly people into thinking their grandkids are in trouble and need money, are one cruel and common tactic, along with scams whereby callers pretend to be officials such as IRS agents.

One knock-on effect of the spam-call problem is the way it’s changing people’s relationship to the phone call, which was once essential to our social life. As Alexis Madrigal wrote in The Atlantic in 2018, the spam-call situation has gotten so dire that “the reflex of answering—built so deeply into people who grew up in 20th-century telephonic culture—is gone.” Spam calls are making the act of picking up the phone anathema. In 2023, I wonder if Jerry would have picked up at all.

Related:

Why no one answers their phone anymore It’s time to protect yourself from AI voice scams.

Today’s News

A gunman killed at least 14 people and wounded at least two dozen others at Charles University, in Prague. The suspected perpetrator of the worst mass shooting in the Czech Republic’s history is dead, according to the police. Rudy Giuliani filed for bankruptcy a day after a federal judge ordered him to immediately start paying $148 million in damages to two Georgia election workers he defamed. A Pacific storm hammered Southern California with torrential rain and floods, raising concerns about holiday-travel disruptions.

Dispatches

The Weekly Planet: If you’re not vegan or even vegetarian, how about being chickentarian? Eve Andrews argues that chicken can be part of a climate-friendly diet. Time-Travel Thursdays: What was America like before pizza? Saahil Desai explores the beginning of our love affair with bread, cheese, and sauce.

Explore all of our newsletters here.

Evening Read

Universal / Everett Collection

Zack Snyder, the Director People Love to Hate

By Dave Itzkoff

One July morning, at a cavernous soundstage on Sunset Boulevard, amplified sound effects boomed so loudly that the walls trembled. On a massive projection screen, futuristic vehicles zipped across alien skies; laser blasts reduced strange architecture to rubble; knives sliced through flesh; an authoritarian army celebrated an unknown triumph. An android with the majestic voice of Anthony Hopkins asked, “Who among you is willing to die for what you believe?”

The footage had been spliced together to create a teaser trailer for Rebel Moon, a science-fiction epic directed by Zack Snyder. Snyder smiled with satisfaction, though he also had notes. “You know what would be cool?” he said to colleagues who were sitting behind an elaborate audio-mixing console. “Is there a way to have it go BOOOOOOOOM and then vroom, have this kind of shock wave?” …

His professed franchise-fatigue notwithstanding, he is already thinking about a Rebel Moon sequel and preparing a video-game spin-off, along with, yes, a graphic novel. But does the world want more Zack Snyder?

Read the full article.

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P.S.

The first story in Vauhini Vara’s new collection, This Is Salvaged, follows a bereaved teenager and her friend as they find themselves drawn into a telemarketing scheme slash phone-sex operation in Seattle. Vara, a former colleague of mine, manages to make the work of sitting at a table and calling up strangers about cruises seem intimate and tragic and seamy all at once. I had no real mental picture of what this work was like before reading the story. One of my big takeaways: It’s bleak, and it can get much weirder than I imagined.

— Lora

Katherine Hu contributed to this newsletter.

When you buy a book using a link in this newsletter, we receive a commission. Thank you for supporting The Atlantic.

Twitter’s Demise Is About So Much More Than Elon Musk

The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com › technology › archive › 2023 › 12 › twitter-tiktok-short-form-video › 676923

It’s really, really hard to kill a large, beloved social network. But Elon Musk has seemingly been giving it his absolute best shot: Over the past year, Twitter has gotten a new name (X), laid off much of its staff, struggled with outages, brought back banned accounts belonging to Alex Jones and Donald Trump, and lost billions in advertising revenue.

Opportunistic competitors have launched their own Twitter clones, such as Bluesky, Mastodon, and Threads. The hope is to capture fleeing users who want “microblogging”—places where people can shoot off little text posts about what they ate for lunch, their random thoughts about politics or pop culture, or perhaps a few words or sentences of harassment Threads, Meta’s entry which launched in July, seems the most promising, at least in terms of pure scale. Over the summer, it broke the record for fastest app to reach 100 million monthly active users—beating a milestone set by ChatGPT just months earlier—in part because Instagram users were pushed toward it. (Turns out, it’s pretty helpful to launch a new social network on the back of the defining social-media empire of our time.)

But the decline of Twitter, and the race to replace it, is in a sense a sideshow. Analytics experts shared data with me suggesting that the practice of microblogging, while never quite dominant, is only becoming more niche. In the era of TikTok, the act of posting your two cents in two sentences for strangers to consume is starting to feel more and more unnatural. The lasting social-media imprint of 2023 may not be the self-immolation of Twitter but rather that short-form videos—on TikTok, Instagram, and other platforms—have tightened their choke hold on the internet. Text posts as we’ve always known them just can’t keep up.

Social-media companies only tend to sporadically share data about their platforms, and of all the main microblogging sites —X, Threads, Bluesky, and Mastodon—just Bluesky provided a comment for this story. “We’ve grown to 2.6 million users on an invite-only basis in 2023,” BlueSky’s CEO, Jay Gruber, wrote in an email, “and are excited about growth while we open up the network more broadly next year.” So I reached out to outside companies that track social analytics. They told me that these new X competitors haven’t meaningfully chipped away at the site’s dominance. For all of the drama of the past year, X is by far still the predominant network for doing brief text posts. It is still home to more than four times as many monthly active users as Threads, Bluesky, and Mastodon combined, according to numbers shared with me by data.ai, a company that tracks app-store activity. (Data.ai looks only at mobile analytics, so it can’t account for desktop users.)

Mastodon and Bluesky amounted to just “rounding errors, in terms of the number of people engaging,” says Paul Quigley, the CEO of NewsWhip, a social-media-monitoring platform. Threads has not fared much better. Sensor Tower, another analytics firm, estimates that fewer than 1 percent of Threads users opened the app daily last month, compared with 18 percent of Twitter users. And even those who open the app are spending an average of just three minutes a day on it.

That doesn’t mean X is thriving. According to data.ai’s 2024-predictions report, the platform’s daily active users peaked in July 2022, at 316 million, and then dropped under Musk. Based on its data-science algorithms, data.ai predicts that X usership will decline to 250 million in 2024. And data.ai expects microblogging overall to decline alongside X next year, even though these new platforms seem positioned for growth: Threads, after all, just recently launched in Europe and became available as a desktop app, and to join Bluesky, you still need an invite code.

Of course, these are just predictions. Plenty of people do still want platforms for sending off quick thoughts, and perhaps X or any other alternative will gain more users. But the decline of microblogging is part of a larger change in how we consume media. On TikTok and other platforms, short clips are served up by an at-times-magical-seeming algorithm that makes note of our every interest. Text posts don’t have the same appeal. “While platforms like X are likely to maintain a core niche of users, the overall trends show consumers are swapping out text-based social networking apps for photo and video-first platforms,” data.ai noted in their predictions report.

Short-form videos have become an attention vortex. Users are spending an average of 95 minutes a day on TikTok and 61 minutes on Instagram as of this quarter, according to estimates from Sensor Tower. By comparison, they’re estimated to average just 30 minutes on Twitter and three minutes on Threads. People also want companies to shift to video along with them in what is perhaps this the real pivot to video: In a recent survey by Sprout Social, a social-media-analytics tool, 41 percent of consumers said that they want brands to publish more 15- to 30-second videos more than they want any other style of social-media post. Just 10 percent wanted more text-only content.

Maybe this really is the end for the short text post, at least en masse. Or maybe our conception of “microblogging” is due for an update. TikTok videos are perhaps “just a video version of what the original microblogs were doing when they first started coming out in the mid-2000s,” André Brock, a media professor at Georgia Tech who has studied Twitter, told me; they can feel as intimate and authentic as a tweet about having tacos for lunch. Trends such as “men are constantly thinking about the Roman empire” (and the ensuing pushback) could have easily been a viral Twitter or Facebook conversation in a different year. For a while, all of the good Twitter jokes were screenshotted and re-uploaded to Instagram. Now it can feel like all of the good TikToks are downloaded and reposted on Instagram. If the Dress (white-and-gold or black-and-blue?) were to go viral today, it would probably happen in a 30-second video with a narrator and a soundtrack.

But something is left behind when microblogging becomes video. Twitter became an invaluable resource during news moments—part of why journalists flocked to the platform, for better or for worse—allowing people to refresh and instantaneously get real-time updates on election results, or a sports game, or a natural disaster. Movements such as Occupy Wall Street and Black Lives Matter turned to Twitter to organize protests and spread their respective messages.

Some of the news and political content may just as easily move to TikTok: Russia’s war with Ukraine has been widely labeled the “first TikTok War,” as many experienced it for the first time through that lens. Roughly a third of adults under 30 now regularly get their news from TikTok, according to Pew Research. But we don’t yet totally know what it means to have short-form videos, delivered via an algorithmic feed, be the centerpiece of social media. You might log onto TikTok and be shown a video that was posted two weeks ago.

Perhaps the biggest stress test for our short-form-video world has yet to come: the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Elections are where Twitter, and microblogging, have thrived. Meanwhile, in 2020, TikTok was much smaller than what it is now. Starting next year, its true reign might finally begin.

Zack Snyder Has Comic-Book Fatigue, Too

The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com › culture › archive › 2023 › 12 › zack-snyder-director-movies-rebel-moon › 676903

This story seems to be about:

One July morning, at a cavernous soundstage on Sunset Boulevard, amplified sound effects boomed so loudly that the walls trembled. On a massive projection screen, futuristic vehicles zipped across alien skies; laser blasts reduced strange architecture to rubble; knives sliced through flesh; an authoritarian army celebrated an unknown triumph. An android with the majestic voice of Anthony Hopkins asked, “Who among you is willing to die for what you believe?”

The footage had been spliced together to create a teaser trailer for Rebel Moon, a science-fiction epic directed by Zack Snyder. Snyder smiled with satisfaction, though he also had notes. “You know what would be cool?” he said to colleagues who were sitting behind an elaborate audio-mixing console. “Is there a way to have it go BOOOOOOOOM and then vroom, have this kind of shock wave?” He watched a giant spaceship drift through the cosmos. Affecting the British accent of the Spinal Tap guitarist Nigel Tufnel, Snyder said proudly, “These trailers go to 11.”

Snyder likes his movies loud and unambiguous. He naturally speaks the language of the big-budget blockbuster: pugnacious, macho, in-your-face. A film critic once described him as “an adrenaline junkie forever jonesing for a fix.” In fact, he’s one reason so many blockbusters look and sound the way they do: Snyder helped establish the template for comic-book movies as they evolved from summertime popcorn fare into ubiquitous year-round spectacles.

“There’s no superhero science-fiction film coming out these days where I don’t see some influence of Zack,” Christopher Nolan, the Oppenheimer director who has worked with Snyder as a producer, told me. “When you watch a Zack Snyder film, you see and feel his love for the potential of cinema. The potential of it to be fantastical, to be heightened in its reality, but to move you and to excite you.”  

Snyder first found success as a director with his 2004 remake of George A. Romero’s classic zombie movie Dawn of the Dead, and with adaptations of the graphic novels 300 (2006) and Watchmen (2009). He then spent several years at Warner Bros. bringing the DC comic-book universe to the screen. His DC movies, including Man of Steel and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, worshipped their spandexed protagonists like deities. They were full of gleaming surfaces, sharp edges, and operatic fight sequences.

Snyder’s fans appreciate the director’s reverence for their comic-book heroes, and the merciless, often bloody worlds he creates for those heroes to inhabit. But Snyder is an unusually divisive filmmaker. His detractors accuse him of making visually bleak, narratively muddled movies. Unlike Nolan, whose brooding Batman trilogy was praised by critics, Snyder has grown accustomed to tough reviews. “Snyder is an overkill director,” Wesley Morris wrote in his review of Man of Steel. “He does bloated masculinist spectacle: Baz Luhrmann with ankle weights.” Reed Tucker, the author of Slugfest: Inside the Epic 50-Year Battle Between Marvel and DC, told me that claiming to be a Snyder fan has become a “sort of political statement, almost. It’s like you’re a Trump fan or something.”

Snyder’s reputation as the bard of heroic manhood is by now so established that he’s become a cultural punch line. In Greta Gerwig’s Barbie, Snyder is the butt of a joke about the dude-bro obliviousness of the Kens: When one Barbie snaps out of the stupor that spread through Barbieland after it was overtaken by Kens, she says, “It’s like I’ve been in a dream where I was somehow really invested in the Zack Snyder cut of Justice League.”

If Snyder himself has some stereotypically dude-bro traits, he’s unapologetic about them. A set for Rebel Moon, which he directed and co-wrote, was decorated with a motivational sign that read Feeling Very Zacktivated. When I met him this past summer, he was refurbishing a vintage Land Rover. Yet Snyder doesn’t see his movies as particularly ideological or political, and he’s mystified by how controversial he’s become. “Everyone’s like, You’re a polarizing figure,” he told me. “You know, Love him or hate him … I’m like, Love him or hate him? What did I do? How did I get hate him?”

One answer is that the movie business has changed considerably in recent years, as have moviegoers’ tastes. Disney’s Marvel unit is experiencing an identity crisis amid declining box-office numbers. DC movies such as The Flash and Black Adam—direct descendants of Snyder’s films, in both their aesthetic and their casting choices—have likewise flopped. Audiences seem burned out on the turbocharged adventures of comic-book crime fighters; the movies they left their homes to see this year told the stories of a Mattel doll and a nuclear physicist.

“I have the same fatigue,” Snyder told me. Comic-book adaptations, he said, are “a cul-de-sac now,” no longer interested in, or capable of, telling self-contained stories. “No one thinks they’re going to a one-off superhero movie.”

This may seem, then, like an inauspicious moment to give Zack Snyder a $166 million budget. Yet that’s what Netflix has done with Rebel Moon. It’s a bet that there is still a market for his bombastic style of storytelling. A big bet: The movie is sufficiently sprawling that it is being released in two parts. The first, subtitled A Child of Fire, will start streaming on December 21; the second, The Scargiver, is planned for next April.

Rebel Moon is a space opera about a lunar colony defying an oppressive intergalactic empire and the band of adventurers who aid the colonists in their fight. Unlike most of Snyder’s previous projects, it’s not an adaptation of someone else’s intellectual property; it emerged from his own imagination. That might help free the project from comic-book fatigue, though it also presents new challenges: Rebel Moon has no built-in fan base in the way Watchmen and Man of Steel did. “We’re a new studio, so we don’t have 100 years of library titles,” Ori Marmur, Netflix’s vice president of original studio film, told me. “And if we’re going to build our own, we really have to be willing to lean into some risk.”

Snyder, for one, is confident that he can create a fan base. His professed franchise-fatigue notwithstanding, he is already thinking about a Rebel Moon sequel and preparing a video-game spin-off, along with, yes, a graphic novel. But does the world want more Zack Snyder?

Snyder on the set of his new Netflix sci-fi epic, Rebel Moon (Clay Enos / Netflix)

Snyder has a trim, muscular build and a stubbly salt-and-pepper beard. He was born in Green Bay, Wisconsin, but moved around a lot as a kid; his father worked in human resources for a series of big companies. Along the way, he developed a love of fantasy and science-fiction. He was 11 when the original Star Wars came out, and it captivated him. He was also fascinated by The Twilight Zone, with its forthright morality tales; the illicit, adult exploits chronicled in Heavy Metal magazine; and the stylized violence of Akira Kurosawa. When he was in junior high in Dallas, Snyder remembers going alone to see a Kurosawa retrospective. “My parents just dropped me off at the theater,” he said. “And I can remember going in there and coming out feeling like, You’re a weirdo. No one had an interest in coming in with me.” At school, Snyder never fit neatly into a single group or category; he was the film geek who made his own movies but also an athlete who struggled in the classroom.

Then, in 1980, his 19-year-old brother, Sam, was in a car accident and died from his injuries. Zack was 13. He attended the same school and summer camp that Sam had gone to, and felt Sam’s shadow looming. His brother “almost had a cult status in these places,” Snyder said. When it came to Sam, “everything had mythological consequences.”

After high school, Snyder spent a year studying painting in London, then moved to Los Angeles and got a degree in film. He started directing music videos and commercials, which benefited, in the eyes of his clients, from his unsubtle style: In a post-9/11 Super Bowl spot, for instance, Budweiser’s Clydesdales bend down in homage at the sight of the New York skyline. He met his wife, Deborah, then an advertising producer, when she hired him to direct a Reebok commercial. She’s been a producer on all his films since 300. Zack has her name tattooed on his right forearm.

When he began pitching himself as a feature-film director, Snyder quickly found his angle. “My tactic in a meeting was, I would say to whatever studio I was at, ‘Do you guys own any IP that you can’t crack? That you can’t figure out how to reboot or make work? Let me try,’” he told me. He brought a marketer’s approach to filmmaking. “I wasn’t afraid to sell the thing that needed to be sold,” he said. “It’s the movie business. It’s not the movie charity.”

In 2004, the same year he and Deborah were married, Snyder released his remake of Dawn of the Dead. Directed by Snyder and written by James Gunn, Dawn of the Dead is an unrelenting bloodbath with manic pacing, zombies that move at breakneck speed, and—unlike the original, which Romero intended as a dark riff on American consumerism—little interest in broader social commentary. Even so, its vision of global apocalypse clearly landed with audiences. The movie was a $100 million hit. One reviewer wrote that “it combines a video-game sensibility with cartoonish, whacked-out violence.” Its success helped reawaken a cultural appetite for zombie carnage.

Snyder proved to have a knack for asserting his own creative vision within the bounds of someone else’s mythological world. Eric Newman, the producer who brought Snyder on to make Dawn of the Dead, once heard Snyder compare populist moviemaking to an article of clothing you might buy at Urban Outfitters—say, a reproduction of a vintage Rolling Stones concert T-shirt. As Newman explained, “It’s frayed here and it’s distressed there and it’s been sort of aged … and there’s a pretense that you were there. You were a part of this thing, and you don’t even consider, let alone mind, that there’s a warehouse somewhere with thousands of these exact same shirts.” Not every director would be so comfortable making the cinematic equivalent of a faux-vintage concert tee. Snyder embraced it.

[From the April 2011 issue: James Parker on why we can’t get the undead off our brains]

Snyder on the set of Dawn of the Dead, released in 2004 (Universal / Everett Collection)

In 2009, Snyder made Watchmen, a superhero adventure adapted from the groundbreaking graphic novel set in a grimy, fallen world far less cartoonish than Metropolis or Gotham. Its inhabitants, even the superheroic ones, experience angst and impotence, they bleed and die, and in the end they largely fail to stop the machinations of the story’s villain. Released one year after the cheeky Iron Man kicked off the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Snyder’s Watchmen established him as a kind of antithesis to the Marvel sensibility: violent and unironic where Marvel was light on its feet and winkingly self-aware.

In 2010, Warner Bros. hired Snyder to direct Man of Steel, its reboot of the Superman franchise. Greg Silverman, a former Warner Bros. executive who helped select Snyder for Man of Steel, said he saw an alignment between the director and the material. Snyder, with his earnestness and his fixation on the dueling forces of good and evil, was “the closest we had to Superman on the lot in the form of a director,” Silverman told me.

Man of Steel, which starred the square-jawed British actor Henry Cavill as Superman, was indeed earnest: In one scene, he tells Lois Lane that the unmistakable letter S emblazoned on his suit is actually a Kryptonian symbol meaning “hope.” Nor was the film particularly subtle in presenting its hero as a savior of mankind—one shot foregrounded Superman in front of a stained-glass-window depiction of Jesus. In typical Snyder fashion, the movie was also extremely gory.

For many viewers, Snyder’s faith in superheroes, and macho brutality, felt like an odd match for the cultural mood; that same year, Marvel’s sly, quippy Iron Man 3 ended its run in theaters as one of the highest-grossing films of all time. Some accused Snyder of forgetting the central pillar of the genre’s appeal: fun.

The movie was harshly reviewed, and made about half as much as Iron Man 3. Still, the studio decided to push ahead with the Snyder aesthetic. A 2016 sequel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, featured Ben Affleck as a burned-out, vengeful Bruce Wayne. Even for audiences that had embraced the dour modernism of Nolan’s Dark Knight trilogy, it was hard to stomach Snyder’s movie, in which the two title heroes spent much of the movie’s runtime disliking and punching each other. BvS reportedly fell short of Warner Bros.’ lofty box-office expectations.

Still, if Snyder had misread the mainstream appetite for a certain kind of superhero fare, he’d found an unusually loyal and ardent group of supporters. On Twitter and Reddit, they raved about his DC movies and clamored for more. Man of Steel and BvS offered just the sort of broken-down, morally paralyzed, hypermasculine portrayals of their characters that hard-core Snyder fans had come to crave.

Henry Cavill as Superman in Man of Steel (Warner Bros / Alamy)

Snyder’s next project, Justice League, might have been the apotheosis of his approach to the superhero genre. Intended as DC’s answer to The Avengers, Marvel’s 2012 blockbuster, it united Superman (resurrected after an untimely demise in BvS) with Batman, Wonder Woman, and Aquaman. But Snyder was forced to stop his work on Justice League after a personal tragedy. His daughter Autumn, then 20 years old, died by suicide in March 2017. Snyder withdrew from the film to grieve with his family. During this period, he and Deborah spent time traveling and thinking deeply about how to return to filmmaking. Autumn, who’d also been a writer, had a habit of signing correspondence with a quote from the novelist Chuck Palahniuk: “The goal isn’t to live forever. The goal is to create something that will.” With that in mind, Snyder decided to press on. “Because my life isn’t separated from the work, it’s cathartic,” he told me.

Joss Whedon, the writer-director of The Avengers, ended up finishing Justice League. The version that hit theaters was criticized for its uneasy mix of Snyder’s stark seriousness and Whedon’s more tongue-in-cheek tone, and the movie was ultimately a commercial failure. (To this day, Snyder maintains that he has never watched this cut of the film, for which he still received directorial credit.)

Snyder diehards were also unhappy with the pastiche of styles that hit theaters. On social media, they began pushing to see Snyder’s full, unaltered version of the film. One fan commissioned a plane with a banner that read WB #ReleasetheSnyderCut of Justice League to fly over Comic-Con in San Diego. Warner Bros. asked Snyder if he would indeed be interested in releasing his own cut of the movie on the fledgling HBO Max streaming service. Because many elements of his film, including the score and special effects, were still incomplete, the studio reportedly spent an estimated $20 million to $30 million to let Snyder finish the movie as he intended. After what he and Deborah had been through, Snyder told me, getting the chance to complete Justice League was a “soul-mending exercise.” The 2021 film, officially titled Zack Snyder’s Justice League, was four hours long, more than two hours longer than the previous version.

Many critics experienced that scale as an assault on their sensibilities. “It is a grind, it is a slog, it is a bore,” wrote The New Yorker’s Richard Brody. “It’s a mental toothache of a movie, whose ending grants not so much resolution as relief.” But Snyder’s fans thrilled to the movie’s elaborate new battle scenes, its grandiosity. As one wrote in a review on Metacritic: “Was 4 years too long a time to see our favorite superhero team rightfully done on the cinematic screen? Maybe for some, but for me and many others it was well worth the wait, for proving all the doubters wrong.”

[Read: Zack Snyder’s Justice League Indulges the Fans and No One Else]

When we first met, Snyder had recently weaned himself off the multiplayer combat video game Fortnite. He’d started playing to bond with his youngest son, Cash, who is 11. Soon, he found himself playing even after Cash clocked out. Eventually his gaming became obsessive. “I’d get up, it would be 5:30, 6 in the morning and he’d be there on the game,” Deborah told me. So he quit and took up pottery instead. He wasn’t very good at making coffee mugs, but with pottery, he said, “at least you get something at the end.”

Snyder owes his filmmaking career to his ability to stay in touch with the Fortnite side of himself: the part that loves the visceral, schoolboy thrills of big explosions and grisly battle scenes; the part that likes his storylines to have life-and-death stakes and black-and-white morality.

The Snyders’ home offices, in the hills of Southern California, are a sleek complex of intersecting boxes, with clean, white interiors and floor-to-ceiling windows. When I visited, Zack took a phone call while Deborah showed me the private screening room where their children had recently started watching all the Star Wars movies. Outside was a shipping container that Zack had turned into his private gym, filled with complicated exercise equipment I didn’t recognize and a poster for John Boorman’s Arthurian fantasy film Excalibur.

When Zack finished his call, we settled into his personal workspace. Here, Snyder became a somewhat different man. He put a Philip Glass record on an expensive-looking turntable and rhapsodized about his love for the architecture of Greene and Greene, the California design firm whose work includes the early-20th-century American Craftsman landmark Gamble House, in Pasadena. “There was a moment where I thought I could be a docent at the Gamble House and give tours, because I do have very fair working knowledge of their architectural style,” Snyder said. “I very much am a frustrated architect. I hate to say that I would have been an architect, because I have too much respect for the field.”

An enthusiastic “camera dork,” Snyder pulled out some of his Polaroid gear and sifted through boxes of photos he’d taken, a mixture of portraits of his film actors in their superhero costumes and candid pictures of his children. “I would take a picture of Ben Affleck or my 8-year-old son with the same sort of drama,” he said. “The truth is, my son represents, for me, a much more intensely mythological place.” In conversation, Snyder returns again and again to that word, mythological; it seems tied to his general obsession with origins, with the foundational stories behind personal greatness and strength. I asked Snyder if his origins as a filmmaker might be traced to his brother Sam’s death, and a formative need to measure up to him. “I think that would be a fair assessment,” he said.

Is there still an appetite for the kind of stories Snyder likes to tell? Mythic tales in which men—Snyder’s heroes are almost exclusively men—do cosmic battle with the forces of darkness? When we spoke over the summer, he had recently watched Barbie, a blockbuster as un-Snyder-like as one could imagine. “It’s good. It’s fine—by the way, even with its mention of Zack Snyder,” he said. “I have no issue being that deep in the zeitgeist.” (I reached out to Gerwig to ask about the origin story of the Snyder line, but a publicist told me, “I’m not sure it makes sense for her to participate in a profile on Zack.”)

Snyder insists that he has moved on from making comic-book films. James Gunn, Snyder’s Dawn of the Dead collaborator, has since made the hit Guardians of the Galaxy movies for Marvel. He’s now writing and directing a new Superman movie for DC, planned for 2025, and helping to shape DC Studios’ overall strategy as a co-chief executive. “I’m not knocking on James Gunn’s door, going, like, ‘Bro, shoot me one of those sweet movies,’” Snyder said. “The holy grail is some original IP that you create, that has resonance and is cool.”

Snyder had been sitting on the concept for Rebel Moon for decades. It’s a personal project for him, both because it pays tribute to cultural artifacts he loves—movies such as The Dirty Dozen and The Magnificent Seven—and in its themes. It’s about trying to come back from loss; about the ultimate triumph of misunderstood good guys over evil.

Yet even this new project has roots in old IP. If Rebel Moon sounds like it could be a Star Wars movie, that’s because Snyder tried several years ago to pitch it to Lucasfilm as a potential R-rated entry in that franchise. As he explained, “The Star Wars audience, they’ve grown up. They’re adults now. And it would be cool to make movies for them.” Snyder said there was some interest in his idea until Lucasfilm was purchased by Disney. “When the acquisition happened, there were discussions of, like, ‘Oh, maybe we’ll make your movie, like down the liiiiiiiine,’” he said. “And I was like, ‘Okay, whatever.’”

Netflix proved more amenable. “When we asked him to really think big,” said Marmur, the Netflix executive, “that’s when Rebel Moon showed up.” The hope, he said, is for Netflix to continue attracting filmmakers who want to start their own franchise, showing them that “you can come here and you can make the first installment of something, as opposed to the fourth, fifth, sixth installment.”

Snyder’s commercial instincts—that willingness to sell the thing that needs to be sold—has always led some to dismiss him as a cynical filmmaker. But part of what makes Snyder unique in Hollywood is that his passion for swashbuckling mass entertainment is totally sincere. Even certain critics who have never fully endorsed Snyder’s work have pushed back on the notion that it is soulless. In his review of Snyder’s Justice League cut, New York’s Bilge Ebiri wrote:

Snyder wholeheartedly embraces this stuff, and there’s nothing cynical about his indulgence: He believes that superheroes directly tie into our ancient myths and religious symbols, and he wants to make the rest of us believe, too. He repeatedly goes overboard with the ritual and the portent and the stone-faced gravity, but it’s hard not to respect the guy; nobody has bought into the superhero ethos more than he has. These are not paycheck gigs for him. This is about as personal as it gets.

Ebiri saw in the movie’s stories of parents trying to save their children, and children trying to save their parents, a powerful account of sacrifice and tragedy: “The Snyder Cut has its share of problems—when you get the best of Snyder, you also get the worst—but it’s an undeniably passionate and moving work. It earns its self-importance,” he wrote. I recently asked Ebiri for his sense of Snyder’s place in contemporary Hollywood. “I actually want there to be more Zack Snyders than fewer Zack Snyders,” he told me. “That sounds crazy to say that. I’m probably going to get arrested for saying that. I think the world of blockbuster filmmaking would benefit from more people like Zack Snyder, who take this stuff really seriously.”

One afternoon, I joined Snyder in the office where he was editing Rebel Moon. In the center of the table where we sat were statuettes of Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman. Feeling, perhaps, the rush of his new project nearing completion, Snyder wondered whether the movie industry’s obsession with strip-mining old source material might be approaching an end. “I mean, like, how much IP is there?” he said.

Quickly, though, he thought of another enduring intellectual property he might like to tackle one day, and his eyes lit up: James Bond. “It’d be cool to see, like, 20-year-old James Bond,” he told me. “The humble roots that he comes from. Whatever trauma of youth that makes you be able to be James Bond,” he said. His voice rose with excitement: “There has to be something there.”

Nobody Knows What’s Happening Online Anymore

The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com › technology › archive › 2023 › 12 › internet-information-trends-virality-tracking › 676888

You are currently logged on to the largest version of the internet that has ever existed. By clicking and scrolling, you’re one of the 5 billion–plus people contributing to an unfathomable array of networked information—quintillions of bytes produced each day.

The sprawl has become disorienting. Some of my peers in the media have written about how the internet has started to feel “placeless”  and more ephemeral, even like it is “evaporating.” Perhaps this is because, as my colleague Ian Bogost has argued, “the age of social media is ending,” and there is no clear replacement. Or maybe artificial intelligence is flooding the internet with synthetic information and killing the old web. Behind these theories is the same general perception: Understanding what is actually happening online has become harder than ever.

The internet destroyed any idea of a monoculture long ago, but new complications cloud the online ecosystem today: TikTok’s opaque “For You” recommendation system, the ascension of paywalls that limit access to websites such as this one, the collapse of Twitter—now X—under Elon Musk, the waning relevance of news across most social-media sites. The broad effect is an online experience that feels unique to every individual, depending on their ideologies and browsing habits. The very idea of popularity is up for debate: Is that trend really viral? Did everyone see that post, or is it just my little corner of the internet? More than before, it feels like we’re holding a fun-house mirror up to the internet and struggling to make sense of the distorted picture.

[Read: The great social media-news collapse]

“There’s a real lack of understanding of what’s going on across platforms,” Ryan Broderick, who writes the newsletter Garbage Day, told me. For the past six months, Broderick has been partnering with NewsWhip and other online-analytics companies and independently building intelligence reports, tracking the most popular content and personalities across sites such as Facebook, X, Reddit, TikTok, Twitch, and YouTube. In the 2010s, he said, a curious person was better equipped to take the temperature of the web: “The stuff going viral on Facebook was of a different flavor and demographic than, say, YouTube or Twitter, but it felt easier to look at it all, shuffle the decks together, and say, There’s the internet.” Sometime between mid-2021 and early 2022, Broderick noticed that information was moving differently. News stories blew up in corners of the internet and died out, completely bypassing his feeds, and fake “viral” trends popped up with increasing frequency, despite little evidence that anyone was participating in them.

Consider TikTok for a second—arguably the most vibrant platform on the internet. Try to imagine which posts might have been most popular on the site this year. Perhaps a dispatch from the Middle East or incendiary commentary on the mass bombings in Gaza? Or maybe something lighter, like a Gen Z dance trend or gossip about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce? Well, no: According to TikTok’s year-end report, the most popular videos in the U.S.—clips racking up as many as half a billion views each—aren’t topical at all. They include makeup tutorials, food ASMR, a woman showing off a huge house cat, and a guy spray-painting his ceiling to look like Iron Man. As a Verge headline noted earlier this month, “TikTok’s biggest hits are videos you’ve probably never seen.” Other platforms have the same issue: Facebook’s most recent “Widely Viewed Content Report” is full of vapid, pixelated, mostly repackaged memes and videos getting tens of millions of views.

The dynamic extends beyond social media too. Just last week, Netflix unexpectedly released an unusually comprehensive “engagement report” revealing audience-consumption numbers for most of the TV shows and movies in its library—more than 18,000 titles in all. The attempt at transparency caused confusion among some viewers: Netflix’s single most popular anything from January and June 2023 was a recent thriller series called The Night Agent, which was streamed for 812 million hours globally. “I stay pretty plugged in with media, especially TV shows - legit have never heard of what’s apparently the most watched scripted show in the world,” one person posted on Threads.

This confusion is a feature of a fragmented internet, which can give the impression that two opposing phenomena are happening simultaneously: Popular content is being consumed at an astounding scale, yet popularity and even celebrity feel miniaturized, siloed. We live in a world where it’s easier than ever to be blissfully unaware of things that other people are consuming. It’s also easier than ever to assign outsize importance to information or trends that may feel popular but are actually contained.

Last month, a claim began to circulate online that TikTok was awash in viral videos of users reading from and praising Osama bin Laden’s 2002 “Letter to America.” The trend was quickly cited by journalists as a worrying indicator of rising anti-Semitism. But a quick analysis of the platform offered more nuance. Although some videos did exist, The Washington Post found that the “Letter to America” hashtag was on only 274 of them during the two-day period in question. The videos received 1.8 million views—far, far fewer than videos hashtagged with travel, skincare, and anime in another 24-hour stretch, according to examples named by the Post.

What followed was a messy postmortem, one that I fear might foreshadow the way 2024-election stories will play out: Internet-savvy reporters tried to offer important correctives to the notion that the letter had gone viral. But others rightly noted that the videos, at least one of which had more than 10,000 likes, were still troubling, even if they were not viral by TikTok standards. Politicians seized on the news to further their own long-standing grievances, namely that TikTok, which they fear is controlled by the Chinese government, is influencing and even radicalizing younger American users. TikTok did not respond to my request for comment.

As interested parties debated whether the trend was real, the coverage drew greater attention to the videos, causing them to go far more viral on secondary platforms; a video compilation of the TikToks has been viewed more than 41 million times on X. Should this cycle repeat in the same way next year, the 2024 presidential campaign will be an especially punishing affair: It will be the TikTok Shadowboxing Election, where virality becomes a meaningless descriptor that nevertheless justifies any number of conflicts.

After the “Letter to America” controversy, I reached out to Brandon Silverman, the founder of CrowdTangle, a platform that tracks the most popular posts across Facebook (which acquired it in 2016). Silverman quit Facebook in 2021, and he now says that big technology platforms are making it harder to verify trends and trace where they came from. Unlike Twitter before Musk, X is a black box, he told me, and TikTok only gives access to its research interface to academic researchers by application. “We’re mostly arguing over data that we don’t have” and “chasing our own tails around the internet,” Silverman said.

CrowdTangle itself paused new user sign-ups last year, arguably a major turning point in this entire conversation: Researchers and transparency groups argued that Meta defanged CrowdTangle’s team as part of an internal reorganization, and reporters have speculated that the transparency tool caused too many headaches for Meta executives when it became clear that conspiracy theories, election-denial content, and far-right influencers were popular across the social network. In a statement, a Meta spokesperson told me that paid CrowdTangle accounts are still active and that, last month, the company rolled out a new series of tools to “provide access to near real-time public content from Pages, Posts, Groups and Events” on Facebook, as well as from professional accounts on Instagram.

Popularity and virality aren’t the only metrics to determine what’s important, but without an understanding of what is happening online, we’re much more likely to let others take advantage of us or to waste precious time thinking about, debunking, and debating issues and controversies that are actually insignificant or have little impact on the world around us. Likewise, politicians can take trends out of context to fit their own political agenda. Last month on the Senate floor, Senator Marsha Blackburn cited “the appalling popularity” of the bin Laden letter on TikTok. “This didn’t happen on its own,” Blackburn argued. “You had TikTok pushing along on this.” Some high-profile Democrats, including New York Governor Kathy Hochul, similarly called out TikTok. When we waste our time chasing shadows, Silverman argued, “we miss the more important issues that actually do deserve our time and attention and tell us something truly meaningful about platforms, ourselves, or the world.”

Not that a more centralized social-media experience was perfect. “What I saw at CrowdTangle is that, more often than not, it was actually just a few influential accounts that made something ‘go viral,’” Silverman told me. He argued that, because the platform audiences were less fragmented, a few large accounts dictated virality way more often than an army of small ones did. Broderick agreed, noting that, especially on networks such as Twitter, media organizations could identify and amplify trends, thereby increasing their reach—a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. “One reason why there’s so much consternation is that if you can’t see what’s going on, you can’t rig the game anymore,” he said.

A shift away from a knowable internet might feel like a return to something smaller and purer. An internet with no discernable monoculture may feel, especially to those who’ve been continuously plugged into trending topics and viral culture, like a relief. But this new era of the internet is also one that entrenches tech giants and any forthcoming emergent platforms as the sole gatekeepers when it comes to tracking the way that information travels. We already know them to be unreliable narrators and poor stewards, but on a fragmented internet, where recommendation algorithms beat out the older follower model, we rely on these corporations to give us a sense of scale. This might sound overdramatic, but without an innate sense of what other people are doing, we might be losing a way to measure and evaluate ourselves. We’re left shadowboxing one another and arguing in the dark about problems, the size of which we can’t identify.

A Young-Adult Blockbuster With Staying Power

The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com › newsletters › archive › 2023 › 12 › hunger-games-staying-power › 676386

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Welcome back to The Daily’s Sunday culture edition, in which one Atlantic writer reveals what’s keeping them entertained. Today’s special guest is Elise Hannum, an assistant editor at The Atlantic who has written about Snoopy as the hero Gen Z needs and the joy of watching awards-show speeches.

Elise listens to Fall Out Boy when she needs to get work done—a habit she hasn’t shaken since college—and unwinds by binging a chaotic Dungeons & Dragons game show and watching 30 Rock episodes.

First, here are three Sunday reads from The Atlantic:

When history doesn’t do what we wish it would The final word on a notorious killing The 10 best albums of 2023

The Culture Survey: Elise Hannum

The upcoming event I’m most looking forward to: The upcoming Broadway season has so many musicals that I am looking forward to, but the one I am most curious about is Lempicka, which is about the artist Tamara de Lempicka. Do I know anything about her beyond that? Nope! The production has released a few songs so far—I especially like “Woman Is”—and I listened to Eden Espinosa (who is starring as Lempicka) sing “Once Upon a Time” from Brooklyn a million times when I was younger, so I’ll be in the audience. [Related: How Broadway conquered the world]

My favorite blockbuster and favorite art movie: The first blockbuster that popped into my head reading this question was The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. I was a big fan of the book series and the movies (I once lined up outside the Mall of America in the early hours of the morning to try to see the cast, but I didn’t even get into the building). I’ve rewatched Catching Fire a few times since it first came out, and it’s just so good, both as a movie and as an adaptation.

I haven’t watched a ton of art movies (yet), but I do have a soft spot for cult classics such as But I’m a Cheerleader, Drop Dead Gorgeous, and Clue. [Related: What the Hunger Games movies always understood]

The television show I’m most enjoying right now: I’m currently watching 30 Rock all the way through for the first time, and I can see why it was so popular. I was a big fan of Parks and Recreation, so I figured I’d like it, but I did not anticipate the sheer amount of jokes the writers packed into each 21-minute episode.

Best novel I’ve recently read, and the best work of nonfiction: I added a bunch of titles from NPR’s “Books We Love” package to my to-read list on Libby recently, and the first one I read was Empty Theatre, by Jac Jemc. It’s a fictionalized version of the lives of cousins King Ludwig II of Bavaria and Empress Elisabeth “Sisi'” of Austria. As the title suggests, the book has a lot to do with them living in excess but still yearning for what they can’t have: to love like they want to, to live like they want to. The last chapters made me gasp out loud on my couch.

Because I read a lot of nonfiction books for work, I don’t reach for them that often in my free time. Still, I remembered reading in The Atlantic about Annie Ernaux’s Look at the Lights, My Love, and I ended up really enjoying it. I may have spent too much time aimlessly wandering around Target with my friends as a teenager, so a book devoted to observations in the grocery store felt right up my alley. [Related: The year I tore through Annie Ernaux’s books]

A quiet song that I love, and a loud song that I love: The first time I listened to “Adam’s Ribs,” by Jensen McRae, I spent the rest of the day playing it on a loop. For a change in pace, I’ll put on “Hot to Go!” by Chappell Roan—or practically any of the uptempo songs from her album, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess. There is something so satisfying about yowling out the lyric “Who can blame a girl? / Call me hot, not pretty!”

A cultural product I loved as a teenager and still love, and something I loved but now dislike: I haven’t completely shaken my middle-school penchant for emo and pop-punk music. I listened to Fall Out Boy when I wrote essays in college, and that’s translated over to my professional life. Folie à Deux is probably my favorite album of theirs. When they reprise a bunch of lines from their old songs on “What a Catch, Donnie”? So fun!

I was a big fan of MTV’s Teen Wolf around the same time. I had Dylan O’Brien as my phone background in a very perfunctory, pre-coming-out-as-a-lesbian sort of way. I’m not saying the show is the worst, but I tried to rewatch it during lockdown for fun and couldn’t get all the way through. It certainly wasn’t worth my dramatic liveblogs on Tumblr!

Something I recently revisited: I often revisit the soundtrack of Natasha, Pierre & the Great Comet of 1812 once I feel even a little chill in the air. The musical is based on a small section of Tolstoy’s War and Peace, so the Russian-winter vibes work this time of year. The score is gorgeous and sweeping and is sung pretty much all the way through, so I can pause and restart it throughout the day.

My favorite way of wasting time on my phone: I do spend a lot of time scrolling through TikTok. Lately, I’ve been trying to watch any French-language videos that pop on my “For You” page, just to feel like I’m keeping myself fluent. I also play a fair amount of Candy Crush (I’m on level 5767), and I race my dad to finish the New York Times crossword. [Related: What in the world is happening on TikTok Live?]

An online creator that I’m a fan of: I kept seeing clips of the online game-show series Game Changer on TikTok, so I sought out more information and fell down a Dropout rabbit hole. The production company was a CollegeHumor rebrand before becoming a stand-alone venture with a slew of different shows. Dimension 20 successfully put me on to Dungeons & Dragons. But what I really enjoy about Dropout’s shows is how much fun everyone seems to have goofing around, and how I truly never know the direction their shows will take. (The “Escape the Greenroom” episode of Game Changer is an absolutely wild ride.)

The last thing that made me cry: The final episode of Dancing With the Stars. They’ve all come so far!

The Week Ahead

Maestro, a film depicting the dramatic relationship between the conductor Leonard Bernstein and his wife, the actor Felicia Montealegre Bernstein (comes to Netflix this Wednesday) Percy Jackson and the Olympians, a television show based on the acclaimed Rick Riordan fantasy series (premieres on Disney+ this Wednesday) Memory, starring Jessica Chastain as a social worker who reconnects with a high-school classmate suffering from dementia (in select theaters Friday)

Essay

Illustration by Gabriela Pesqueira. Sources: "Saturday Night Live" / NBC Universal; Dudzenich / Shutterstock.

SNL’s New Kings of Bizarro Buddy Comedy

By David Sims

The video that ushered Saturday Night Live into the digital era barely made it to television, and when it did, it was largely ignored. It’s a heartfelt conversation between two friends (played by Andy Samberg and Will Forte) about a recent tragic loss; after every emotional beat, each of them takes a bite out of a large head of lettuce. When the video was screened during SNL’s live taping, the studio audience was clearly puzzled, the laughs barely rising above a polite chuckle. “Lettuce,” created in December 2005 by Samberg’s Lonely Island sketch group, could have been the end of SNL’s experimentation with prerecorded digital sketches.

But then, two weeks later, came “Lazy Sunday,” a music video in which Samberg and his SNL co-star Chris Parnell rap about “lame, sensitive stuff,” as Samberg once put it … In 2021, SNL hired Ben Marshall, John Higgins, and Martin Herlihy, a comedy team who’d met at NYU and called themselves Please Don’t Destroy. The group had developed a big following with short videos for TikTok and Twitter during the COVID lockdowns, but its members could easily have been dismissed as legacy hires by a nearly half-century-old institution: Both Higgins’s and Herlihy’s fathers wrote jokes for SNL. Despite that pedigree, the three have brought something new to the venerable sketch show, which recently returned from a hiatus lengthened by the writers’ strike. They’ve figured out how to tap into the manic, juddering energy of comedy in the smartphone era.

Read the full article.

More in Culture

The type of charisma that saves a holiday party Wonka is a total delight. You can’t truly be friends with an AI. The last time a concert documentary saved the movies Nicki Minaj faces hip-hop’s middle-age conundrum. Bus rides feel different when you’re a new mother. Poem: “The Wish”

Catch Up on The Atlantic

The death of a gun-rights warrior The most consequential act of sabotage in modern times Why Trump won’t win

Photo Album

Workers build ice structures for the 25th Harbin Ice and Snow World, in China. (AFP / Getty)

Swimming during a heat wave in Sydney, extensive tornado damage in Tennessee, a Santa Run in Germany, and more in our editor’s selection of the week’s best photos.

Katherine Hu contributed to this newsletter.

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SNL’s New Kings of Bizarro Buddy Comedy

The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com › magazine › archive › 2024 › 01 › please-dont-destroy-snl-foggy-mountain-movie › 676144

The video that ushered Saturday Night Live into the digital era barely made it to television, and when it did, it was largely ignored. It’s a heartfelt conversation between two friends (played by Andy Samberg and Will Forte) about a recent tragic loss; after every emotional beat, each of them takes a bite out of a large head of lettuce. When the video was screened during SNL’s live taping, the studio audience was clearly puzzled, the laughs barely rising above a polite chuckle. “Lettuce,” created in December 2005 by Samberg’s Lonely Island sketch group, could have been the end of SNL’s experimentation with prerecorded digital sketches.

But then, two weeks later, came “Lazy Sunday,” a music video in which Samberg and his SNL co-star Chris Parnell rap about “lame, sensitive stuff,” as Samberg once put it: buying Magnolia Bakery cupcakes and going to a matinee of The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe. To this day, it feels like something furtively sneaked onto the air, a blast of youthful punchiness wedged in between SNL’s often bloated bits of vaudeville. “Lazy Sunday” became a breakaway hit and ultimately helped demonstrate that SNL could still be a place where comedy felt fresh and strange rather than rote and reactive.

As Lonely Island’s profile rose, its grainy videos turned into slick, celebrity-studded spectacles. Perhaps the pinnacle of the group’s achievements was 2006’s “Dick in a Box,” in which Samberg parodied the songwriting and music-video conventions of ’90s boy-band pop, recruiting a veteran of that moment, Justin Timberlake, to join in. Wearing gift-wrapped packages on their crotches, Samberg and Timberlake deliver a pitch-perfect send-up of the baby-making ballads of acts like Color Me Badd and Backstreet Boys. The production is gleefully boneheaded and delightfully weird—but not so weird that the show’s core demographic would miss the joke.

Samberg left SNL in 2012; the other two members of Lonely Island, Akiva Schaffer and Jorma Taccone, left around the same time. For a while, it seemed like the show might never recapture the group’s knack for virality. Two cast members, Kyle Mooney and Beck Bennett, starred in several surreal “digital exclusives,” but they failed to attract much of a following (and were often cut before airtime). These had the bizarro vibe that viewers had come to expect from the form, but without Lonely Island’s mainstream legibility: more “Lettuce” than “Lazy Sunday.”

Then, in 2021, SNL hired Ben Marshall, John Higgins, and Martin Herlihy, a comedy team who’d met at NYU and called themselves Please Don’t Destroy. The group had developed a big following with short videos for TikTok and Twitter during the COVID lockdowns, but its members could easily have been dismissed as legacy hires by a nearly half-century-old institution: Both Higgins’s and Herlihy’s fathers wrote jokes for SNL. Despite that pedigree, the three have brought something new to the venerable sketch show, which recently returned from a hiatus lengthened by the writers’ strike. They’ve figured out how to tap into the manic, juddering energy of comedy in the smartphone era.

Part of what makes a Please Don’t Destroy sketch so disorientingly funny is the way it can snap from the quotidian to paranoid hysteria in seconds. In March 2021, before the group joined SNL, one video opened with Marshall returning home after getting his first COVID vaccine. His friends ask the then-ubiquitous question: Pfizer or Moderna? Neither, it turns out. Marshall proudly proclaims that he’s gotten the off-brand “Dumbrekka” vaccine (“They put me under for the whole thing, and it only took a couple of hours,” he reports cheerily). Higgins and Herlihy’s confusion builds to concern as Marshall describes his post-jab symptoms: “I’ve been expelling a ton of black bile,” he says. His friends try to impress upon him that his health seems imperiled, but Marshall angrily denounces them as “anti-vaxxers”—before promptly collapsing on the floor, unconscious.

On SNL, the group’s brisk, lo-fi skits still play like fever dreams, with the intense, quick-cut cadence that defines the TikTok aesthetic. The videos tend to begin in mundane settings, often the ambience-free office that the three young writers inhabit at Rockefeller Center. Their tenuous place in the show’s hierarchy and desperation to come up with material are a consistent backdrop.

Please Don’t Destroy, in its dry, Gen Z way, relies on the classic sketch-comedy gambit of escalating some minor concept into absurdity. But it’s arguably doing something deeper, too. The videos have a certain fraternal energy that is key to the group’s appeal; they feel like compressed buddy comedies with an edge of lunatic horror. The three men are presented as best friends, yet they are always on the brink of exploding into some outlandish fight. Because they seem to know almost everything about one another, they can attack insecurities with abandon, then reconcile just as quickly.

This dynamic is perhaps most clearly on display in a sketch where Marshall feels excluded after discovering that Higgins and Herlihy are lying about having plans just so they can hang out alone. Marshall decides to spy on his friends (with help from a deranged Woody Harrelson) and learns that not only are they happily playing video games without him, but they have secretly married and started a family.

Shifting ideas of masculinity is a theme SNL has frequently mined in recent years; one 2021 sketch, “Man Park,” advertises the equivalent of a dog park where men who struggle with intimacy can connect over football and Marvel movies. Although entertaining as far as it goes, the sketch was content to hit a familiar satirical target: the inability of men to express emotions. Please Don’t Destroy is at once more surreal and more nuanced in its portrait of male friendship. In one sketch, Marshall and Herlihy gleefully rattle off insults about Higgins’s ex-girlfriend, only to learn that they’ve gotten back together, that they are in fact now engaged, and that the ex-girlfriend has been sitting in the room the entire time. (Also, her entire family has been listening on Zoom.) The skit captures the male tendency to bond through ridicule, to avoid the subject of romance at all costs, and to fear that maintaining an adult relationship is antithetical to being one of the boys.

And despite the terrible things the three do and say to one another, the fun they have pushing the boundaries of their comedy ever further is palpable.

Inevitably, the group’s success has now led to a movie deal; in November, NBC’s streaming service, Peacock, released Please Don’t Destroy: The Treasure of Foggy Mountain, written by and starring Herlihy, Higgins, and Marshall. The three play “themselves,” except they’re all employees of a Bass Pro–type store run by Marshall’s disapproving dad (depicted with cruel relish by Conan O’Brien). Seeking an escape from the daily grind, the friends go into the woods on a treasure hunt.

The Treasure of Foggy Mountain struggles in ways that are familiar from many of the SNL-themed movies that flooded theaters in the ’90s after the success of Wayne’s World—comedies that tried to elevate one-joke sketches like “Coneheads” and “A Night at the Roxbury” into film-length odysseys. There are flashes of comic virtuosity here, but like most SNL films, The Treasure of Foggy Mountain feels padded, even at 90 minutes, perhaps more so given the sprightly sketches with which Please Don’t Destroy made its name.

Simmering straight-male insecurity remains the engine of the comedy, with the needy alliances of the three pals shifting throughout the plot. Here, though, that dynamic wears itself out. As the stars hunt for treasure, their friendship is tested, before all is eventually forgiven; think The Goonies, except the children are nominally adults. Seeing the trio do their thing at feature length, you mostly just miss that dingy SNL office and those fun-house-mirror glimpses of their oddly charming bond.

This article appears in the January/February 2024 print edition with the headline “The Bizarro Buddy Comedy of Please Don’t Destroy.”

The Death of a Gun-Rights Warrior

The Atlantic

www.theatlantic.com › ideas › archive › 2023 › 12 › nra-gun-ownership-suicide-rates › 676309

This story seems to be about:

Illustrations by Adams Carvalho

This article is a collaboration between The Atlantic and The Trace.

One Saturday night in April 2017, Jenn Jacques and Bob Owens stayed up late drinking at an outdoor bar in Atlanta. They had worked together for more than two years, and Owens had become like an older brother to Jacques. On this Saturday, Owens seemed relaxed and was looking forward to the future; he talked about an upcoming family vacation. “That was such a special night,” Jacques told me. “I can say that there was no warning.”

They were both in their 40s, and had spouses and kids back home. Jacques lived in Wisconsin, and Owens in North Carolina. They were in town for the National Rifle Association’s annual meeting. Together, they edited a popular gun-rights news and opinion website called Bearing Arms.

As a blogger, Owens was often combative and blunt. He had a tendency to mock those who disagreed with him; he believed that gun-control advocates were performative and that they ignored inconvenient facts. A few days earlier, he’d written that protesters who were planning a “die-in” near the NRA convention were staging “a dramatic hissy fit.”

But the man Jacques knew was different. “His personality was as calm as his southern drawl,” she said. “The man was so levelheaded and thoughtful and kind, deliberate and generous.” Owens had coached his older daughter’s soccer team, and he went to equine therapy with his younger one, who had been diagnosed with autism. He had a sarcastic sense of humor, but he also sang karaoke and watched Disney movies with the kids and his wife, Christine.

Another time when he and Jacques were out drinking, Owens decided he didn’t like the way a man was talking to her. “Sir, I would never hope to get in a fight with anyone,” Owens said to him, “but I will take you down if you go near this woman again.” Jacques laughed and told him to stop. “He was so serious in protecting others,” she said.

That night in Atlanta, Owens and Jacques were in a reflective mood. They discussed their families and aging.

“My grandma is going to be 86,” Jacques said.

“I hope I make it that long,” Owens said.

At one point, the conversation drifted to suicide.

“The most selfish thing you can do is take yourself away from your kids,” Jacques said.

“I could never do it,” Owens replied.

From time to time, Owens wrote fiery posts about public figures he saw as antagonistic toward gun rights. One subject was a doctor named Arthur Kellermann, whose research had indicated a troubling link between guns and suicide.

In 1984, Kellermann, then 29, was earning a master’s degree in public health at the University of Washington in Seattle. One day, he was sitting in the student center between classes when he heard on the news that the singer Marvin Gaye had been fatally shot with a .38-caliber revolver by his own father.

Kellermann had grown up in a conservative household in Tennessee. His father owned guns, and had taught Kellermann to shoot at the age of 10. But Gaye’s shooting, which had happened at home, got Kellerman thinking about his recent experience working in an emergency room. He had seen a number of gunshot victims, but he couldn’t remember treating a single patient who had been shot while breaking into someone’s home.

[Daniel Levitin: The ineluctable logic of gun ownership]

This prompted Kellermann to seek out research measuring the risks and benefits of keeping a firearm in the home. But he couldn’t find much, so he decided to embark on a simple study of his own.

With the help of the local medical examiner, Kellermann reviewed every gunshot death that had occurred in King County, where the university was located, from 1978 through 1983. During that period, there had been 398 fatalities in homes that contained a firearm. Fifty had been homicides—and of those, only nine involved self-defense. Twelve shootings had been accidents, and three deaths couldn’t be categorized. The remaining 333 incidents—almost 85 percent of the deaths—were suicides.

Kellerman’s study, titled “Protection or Peril?”, was published in The New England Journal of Medicine in 1986. Because the data set was limited, he avoided drawing firm conclusions, but the numbers immediately attracted attention. A New York Times article summarizing the analysis began, “Keeping firearms in the home may endanger, not protect, the individuals who live there.” At the time, research suggested that half of all American households contained at least one gun.

Kellermann wanted to perform a case-control study, a methodology that would be more definitive. With CDC funding, he set out to investigate whether homes where guns are kept are more likely to be scenes of suicide than similar households without firearms. He and his team focused on the period from 1987 to 1990, in King County, Washington, and Shelby County, Tennessee, where Kellermann had moved. The researchers identified 565 suicides that occurred in or near a residence, almost 60 percent of which involved a gun. In 1992, the results were also published in The New England Journal of Medicine, and again the finding was clear: “The ready availability of firearms appears to be associated with an increased risk of suicide in the home.”

The danger was not unique to those who were known to have mental illness, or to those who had newly acquired a gun—most of the victims had owned their weapons for months or years. The article ended with a warning: People who keep a firearm in the home “should carefully weigh their reasons” against the “possibility that it may someday be used in a suicide.”

Kellermann’s results aligned with a long-running trend. From 1953 to 1978, the rate of gun suicide increased by 45 percent, while the rate of suicide by other methods remained steady. Gun suicide outpaced gun homicide, as it still does. Since 2017, firearm suicide has been the cause of roughly 25,000 deaths each year. Nearly 80 percent are white males ages 15 and older.

If you are having thoughts of suicide, please know that you are not alone. If you’re in danger of acting on suicidal thoughts, call 911. For support and resources, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 988 or text 741741 for the Crisis Text Line.

Social scientists and other researchers have looked extensively for explanations behind America’s swelling suicide rates: deindustrialization, addiction, a lack of new opportunities for working-class men, the breakdown of once-tight-knit communities. But the most crucial—and controversial—ingredient is the gun itself. Suicide is typically an impulsive act; the difference between life and death can thus turn on whether a person has access to a lethal weapon. In one study, survivors were asked at the hospital how much time had passed between ideation and attempt. About half said 10 minutes or less. And when a firearm is involved, according to a 2019 analysis in Annals of Internal Medicine, there is a 90 percent chance a suicide attempt will be fatal. One statistic is particularly clarifying: Only 5 percent of suicide attempts involve a firearm—but a gun is used in more than 50 percent of suicide deaths.

After Kellermann published his findings, the National Rifle Association told Americans that he could not be trusted. In an interview with The Morning Call, an NRA representative denounced Kellermann’s study as “dishonest,” adding, “Worldwide, nationwide, regionally there is no relationship between gun availability and suicide rates.” But in the three decades since, other studies have consistently echoed Kellermann’s conclusions.

The core of the gun-rights movement—and the firearms market—is made up of white men who live in suburbs or rural areas. These buyers are among the least likely to encounter gun violence, but the most likely to die by their own hand using a firearm. And yet the gun industry has so far avoided any real public reckoning over whether the strategy that keeps these customers buying could also be placing them in danger.

Bob Owens was the oldest of three boys, raised in a Christian household in Greenville, North Carolina. He grew up hunting deer, fishing, and playing soccer. His father liked to remind Owens and his brothers that they alone were responsible for their actions. “You made that bed,” he would say. “Now lie in it.”

As an undergraduate at East Carolina University, Owens majored in English, covered sports for the school paper, and aspired to be a novelist. An old classmate, who also worked on the newspaper, told me that she never heard him express strong political opinions or take a position on guns. He was mild-mannered, an introvert with a small circle of close friends.

One night, at a downtown pool hall, one of those friends introduced him to a nutrition major from New York named Christine. He’d seen her at parties; she had bright blue eyes, blond hair, and a warmth that made people feel comfortable and accepted. She loved music and played the violin. Christine worked at a restaurant, and when they started dating, Owens would hang out there during her shifts, just wanting to be nearby.

When the two had been together a year, Christine’s parents came to town for a birthday dinner at Owens’s childhood home. In front of both families, Owens revealed an engagement ring. “Will you?” he asked Christine. “He could barely get the words out,” she told me. “He was so nervous.”

In 1997, after they’d both graduated, the couple moved to Charlotte. Christine managed a restaurant; Owens went into IT. They liked spending time outdoors together, hiking in the North Carolina mountains. Owens kept a shotgun in the house for hunting, which was new for Christine, who hadn’t grown up with firearms and was uncomfortable around them. Mostly, the gun remained out of sight. Being a gun owner wasn’t yet a key part of Owens’s identity. “It was more of a history thing,” Christine said. “He knew the background and history of these old guns from wars … It was kind of a hobby.”

They got married in 1998 and had their first child, Maya, two years later. “Bob was over the moon,” Christine said. In 2001, she and Owens moved to Newburgh, New York, to live with her family, then rented a home of their own. The house had a lovely view of the Hudson River, but Newburgh, sitting at the intersection of two interstate highways, was a hub for crack-cocaine trafficking, and a frequent site of violent crime. The place next door to the Owens’s home was abandoned, and drug dealers and prostitutes hung out in the area. Owens and Maya tended to make their fun inside. They invented a game they called Table Ball; he would kneel in front of a table, acting as the goalie, and Maya would try to kick a ball underneath it.

When strangers loitered near their house for too long, Owens and Christine often called the cops, and sometimes Owens would go outside and confront people himself. He’d knock on a car window and ask whoever was inside to leave. At the time, he didn’t carry a gun.

Though Owens had been conservative his whole life, he wasn’t particularly outspoken about his political views until after 9/11. In the early 2000s, he was still working in IT, but he missed writing and was eager for an outlet. Then, in 2004, he started a blog called Confederate Yankee. Its slogan: “Because liberalism is a persistent vegetative state.”

In his early entries, Owens offered a vigorous defense of President George W. Bush and the Iraq War. His online writing had a brashness and a commanding authority, as if he were test-driving a new persona. In one post, Owens declared, “There is something inherent in the character of Americans that makes us want to fight for and nurture the freedom of others.” And yet the Democratic Party, he wrote, has “fought against this fine trait.”

Owens could be irreverent and contemptuous. His opponents were “idiots,” “morons,” or “dumb as a stump.” But he also strove for moral consistency, even when it was inconvenient. He was adamantly opposed to abortion while chastising “small-minded people who find a bit of satisfaction in the thought of an abortion doctor burning in Hell.” He called the military’s Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy “antiquated” and declared, “We’ve seen this kind of discrimination before from our military, but it is past time for it to stop.”  

Owens posted multiple times a week, and his following grew. On Christmas Day 2004, he was feeling joyful and gracious. He commanded his readers to “go spend time with those you love,” and assured them, “I’ll be back posting tomorrow as my regular obnoxious self.”

Bob Owens. Courtesy: Maya Owens

A year later, Owens discovered an essay titled “Tribes,” by the conservative author Bill Whittle. “Tribes” argues that people belong to one of two groups, “Pink, the color of bunny ears, and Grey, the color of a mechanical pencil.” The Pink tribe, Whittle writes, is concerned with “feeling good about yourself!” For the Grey tribe, “emotion is repressed because Emotion Clouds Judgment.” Whittle’s Grey tribe knows “that sometimes bad things happen, and that these instances are opportunities to show ourselves what we are made of.” He elaborates: “My people go into burning buildings. My Tribe consists of organizers and self-starters, proud and self-reliant people who do not need to be told what to do in a crisis. My Tribe is not fearless; they are something better. They are courageous.”

The piece ignited something in Owens. He called it “the single best essay I have ever read,” and wrote that it prompted him to do “a lot of soul-searching about what it means to be Grey.” Whittle incorporated ideas from an author and a former Army Ranger named Dave Grossman, who had become a prominent right-wing thinker on the psychology of violence. Reading “Tribes” led Owens to “On Sheep, Wolves, and Sheepdogs,” Grossman’s most influential essay, which divides society into three categories. Sheep are “kind” and “gentle,” and “can only hurt one another by accident.” They are prey to wolves, who “feed on the sheep without mercy.” And then there are sheepdogs—the animals that “live to protect the flock and confront the wolf.” Sheepdogs, Grossman says, have both “a capacity for violence” and “a deep love” for “fellow citizens.”

Owens republished Grossman’s essay on his blog in 2006. “I’ve been thinking a lot about sheepdogs lately,” he wrote. “Most of us can define where we fall in Grossman’s essay if we are honest with ourselves. Most won’t be honest of course, including many of you reading this. Dishonesty to one’s self is, after all, the defining characteristic of Sheep, even perfectly nice Sheep.”

By this time, Owens and his family had moved back to North Carolina and were living in a newly built home in Fuquay-Varina, a quiet suburb 30 minutes outside of Raleigh. The school system was good. Their middle-class neighborhood had fields and a brook, and there was a park near their house.

For a while, Owens had a part-time job working the gun counter at a sporting-goods store. He could talk at length about “00-buckshot” and its ability to “penetrate 22 inches of ballistic gelatin,” or a .410 pump shotgun, which, he once blogged, was ideal for home protection because the weapon’s “low-recoil, low-report” made “follow-up shots considerably easier than would a larger-bore shotgun.” One time, Owens wrote about customers who’d come into his store asking for a whistle to scare away potential muggers. He suggested a concealed handgun as a better option, but the customers were wary. When recounting the incident, Owens wrote, “Whistlers, however you cut it, are sheep.”  

Adams Carvalho for The Atlantic

In 2008, Owens got a permit to carry a concealed firearm, which he described as a transformative experience. “There’s a certain kind of freedom that comes with the responsibility of carrying arms that is hard to properly express to those who don’t,” he wrote. “Yes, guns can take lives. But far more often, experience truly bearing arms helps hone and reveal character.”

His timing coincided with a landmark Supreme Court decision, District of Columbia v. Heller, which declared that the Second Amendment guaranteed the individual right to own a firearm. One article about the decision, in Reuters, quoted Kellermann discussing the risks of keeping a loaded firearm in the home. The story infuriated Owens, who referred to Kellermann on his blog as a “radically anti-gun doctor.”

[Timothy Zick and Diana Palmer: The next fight over guns in America]

The next year, Barack Obama took office. For men like Owens, Bush represented the Grey tribe, and the new president represented the Pink. According to a former NRA staffer, who at the time was involved with membership communication and requested anonymity out of fear of retribution, “It was easy for [the] NRA to take an aggressive approach, and fearmonger.” The organization’s pitch, the former staffer said, was succinct and urgent: “Obama was coming for our guns.” Owens seemed to agree. He wrote that the president—who supported policies such as an assault-weapons ban while clarifying that he respected legal gun ownership—“continues to lie to the public about his intentions towards our Second Amendment rights.”

During the summer of 2009, a 29-year-old named Jennifer Perian was working for the NRA. She loved horses and baseball, and aspired to visit every Major League stadium in the country. Perian, who was from Colorado, hadn’t grown up around guns, but she attended George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, where the NRA is located. She took the job after graduating, and soon purchased a handgun.

Perian began dating someone new, but the relationship quickly grew tumultuous. Then one day Perian’s dad, Jim, was at work when the police called. Jen had fatally shot herself. “They said it was impulsive,” Jim told me. “They called it an ‘emotional suicide.’”

The NRA paid for the funeral and flew Jim out to Virginia. “They were very nice to me,” he said. “I can tell you that.”

Three years after Perian’s death, an NRA field representative named John quietly attended a Sandy Hook memorial ceremony near the small town in Indiana where he and his family lived. John, at 45, was tall and sturdy. He had two daughters in high school, and he had worked for the NRA for 10 years, running fundraising banquets in his region. Before that, John had been a field artillery officer in the Army. Now he was in the Reserves.

The NRA had hired him with the understanding that he could still be deployed overseas. In 2011, he was sent to Iraq for most of the year. He earned a Bronze Star, one of the highest honors bestowed by the armed services. According to his certificate, he was “engaged in stability operations under constant threat and frequent attack.”

But after he returned, John was clearly suffering. His wife, who asked that her name and her family’s surname be withheld, told me that the NRA made him feel like his job was in constant jeopardy. “The expectation was to jump right back in and have all of the other stressors on top of it,” she said. When Sandy Hook happened on December 14, 2012, John had been back at work for a year, and had earned his second Field Representative of the Year award. His wife said that her husband believed in the NRA with his “whole heart.” He would tell people: “This is not a traditional job, because this is a lifestyle. This is about our Second Amendment.”

[Read: 10 years after Sandy Hook, here we are again]

John’s wife was a teacher at a local high school and had helped organize the Sandy Hook memorial event; John attended to support his wife. “He wanted me to be very clear that, if anybody asked, he was there as himself, not as a representative of the NRA,” she said.

After the new year, John started drinking heavily. On April 5, he got arrested for a DUI while driving an NRA vehicle. “That just sent him over the edge,” John’s wife said. “He feared he was going to lose his job.” On April 7, he spent the day in his home office, working on NRA business. The next day, around lunchtime, he took one of his handguns, got on a bicycle, and rode half a mile into the woods near his home, where he shot and killed himself. “I’m not anti-gun,” John’s wife said, “but having a gun right there and accessible definitely made it easier.”

When she discovered that her husband had spent the last day of his life working for the NRA instead of with his family, she was livid. She remembers calling John’s boss and telling him, “You need to come and get this NRA stuff out of my house.” Twenty-four hours later, the boss and a colleague came and took the materials away. No one from NRA headquarters reached out to the family to express condolences, she told me.

A federal bill proposing expanded background checks for gun buyers was defeated in the Senate the following week. The NRA released a celebratory statement underscoring that the legislation would have undermined a “fundamental right,” but noted that the organization would continue to work on “fixing our broken mental health system.”

At least two more NRA employees would die by gun suicide after John. On a Monday in November 2019, Ryan Phipps, who worked in the NRA’s affinity-and-licensing department, did not show up for work. Phipps, 27, had been with the organization for half a decade. He enjoyed hunting and fishing. He played the drums and had built his own bicycle.

But privately, Phipps had a history of depression, according to a source who knew him well. Over the years, Phipps had sought treatment, and he’d seemed to be doing well until the day he used one of his own handguns to attempt suicide. He initially survived the shot, but died in the hospital two weeks later.

That same year, the NRA fired a program coordinator named Mark Richardson. HuffPost had published emails that showed him, in conversation with a prominent conspiracy theorist, raising questions about the 2018 Parkland high-school shooting. Richardson was almost 60, and he had worked at the NRA for a decade. His friend and former NRA colleague Stephen Czarnik invited him to live on his farm in West Virginia, where they raised chickens.

Richardson’s mental health was deteriorating, according to Czarnik. He was drinking alone. In October 2020, Czarnik recalled to me, another friend from the NRA was visiting the farm. He and Czarnik were hanging out in an upstairs room when Richardson walked in. Richardson embraced them and said, “God is good,” and that he loved them. “Then he ran downstairs,” Czarnik said, “and we knew something was wrong.” Czarnik and his friend followed Richardson, who dashed to the front porch. Before anyone could reach him, he shot himself with a handgun.

When Richardson died, it had been almost 30 years since the NRA had publicly disputed Kellermann’s research. Billy McLaughlin, an NRA spokesperson, said in an email that the organization “observes that according to many criminologists and researchers” Kellermann’s work is “interpreted as junk science.” He added that the NRA does not comment on its employees, and that there is “nothing more important to us” than the staff’s “safety and security.”

In 2013, Owens was out of work in IT, but his profile as a writer had risen. He was done with Confederate Yankee, and was now a regular contributor to the long-standing conservative site PJ Media, where he focused almost singularly on firearms. He was especially fixated on the trial of George Zimmerman, who, a year earlier, had fatally shot Trayvon Martin, a Black teenager who was unarmed. Owens seemed to identify with Zimmerman. Martin, he wrote, “was a very troubled young man who believed very strongly in impulsively trying to get whatever he wanted, and did not care if others were hurt if it made him feel better”; he found Zimmerman, meanwhile, to be a “generally honorable man with idealistic goals about the role good men should play in protecting their communities.”

Owens and Christine now had two children. Maya was in her early teens; their second, Kate, was 6. Owens took the family on trips to North Carolina’s western mountains, and cooked them pork butt on the grill. They attended church every Sunday. Owens always had a handgun on him, though the only real hazard in their neighborhood was the occasional car accident on a busy road called Judd Parkway. When that happened, Christine said, Owens was the first to rush outside and offer help.

On the night of the Zimmerman verdict, he tweeted to his thousands of followers, “Trayvon Martin tried to kill George Zimmerman. He just failed at that as he did everything else in his life.” Stephen Gutowski, a journalist who reports on firearms and was close with Owens, told me, “When he felt like a media narrative was developing that was unfair to gun owners, he would go and push back as hard as he could.”

[Read: Ta-Nehisi Coates on Trayvon Martin and the irony of American justice]

Christine recalled that Owens half-jokingly turned to Twitter for help finding full-time work, suggesting that there must be an organization out there that could use his skills. Katie Pavlich, a conservative commentator and friend, saw his tweet. She worked for a conservative media company called Townhall, which had recently launched BearingArms.com. It needed someone to run the site, and Pavlich thought Owens would be a good fit. He was soon hired at a salary of $80,000 a year. “This was like a dream job to him,” Christine told me.

The self-defense gun market is defined by contradiction. In a 2015 study conducted by the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF)—the trade group for the firearms industry—white respondents had the highest level of gun ownership, and were the ones most likely to claim that they carried weapons out of a “duty to protect” family and worries over “random acts of violence.” But at the same time, they were also less likely than Black and Hispanic respondents to report that they actually live in dangerous neighborhoods.

These results aligned with other research. In his book Dying of Whiteness, Jonathan Metzl, a psychiatrist and sociologist, looks closely at gun owners in a Missouri county that is 85 percent white. He told me that many of his subjects “imagined a threat around every corner.” He added, “One guy was talking about ‘gangbangers’ who would come through his window and steal his television.” Another man “imagined that he could be carjacked at any moment.” Angela Stroud, a sociologist whose book, Good Guys With Guns, explores similar themes, writes that the men she interviewed were fixated on imagined violence. “Though they may never be in a position to carry out heroic fantasies of masculine bravery,” she wrote in her book, they were “positioning themselves as brave leaders of their families.”

At the NRA’s 2015 annual meeting, in Nashville, Tennessee, Dave Grossman held a seminar called “Sheepdogs! The Bulletproof Mind for the Armed Citizen.” “Of all the violence we could engage in, violence to protect our families, to protect our children, is what we’re wired to do,” he told attendees. “You are the Special Forces. We are at war.”

Nearly two-thirds of the roughly 40,000 annual gun deaths that were occurring at the time were suicides. The statistics were bleak enough that even the NSSF felt compelled to publicly address them. In August of 2016, the group launched a high-profile campaign aimed at combatting gun suicide, in partnership with the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention (AFSP), the largest private suicide-prevention organization in the country.

On its face, the partnership seemed promising. Robert Gebbia, the CEO of AFSP, said in a press release that his organization saw “this relationship as critical to reaching the firearms community.” That same press release quoted Stephen Sanetti, then the NSSF president, as saying that the effort placed the “firearms industry” at the “forefront of helping to prevent these deaths.”

But the written agreement between the two groups, which has never been reported on before, has a “conflicts of interest” provision that might have caused some concern had it been viewed by the public. The opening sentence promises that “the parties shall act in the best interests of the other” and “shall disclose any real or potential conflicts that are adverse to the interests of the other as they arise.” Such conflicts included “positions advanced by one party [that] do not align with the positions advanced by the other and the issuance of any public statement by a party that harms or could harm the other.” Given that one of the NSSF’s primary goals is to maximize profit for the firearms industry, such a policy would seemingly present a major limitation for the partnership. Stephanie Rogers, the chief communications officer at AFSP, told me in an email that the language merely calls for transparency, and “does not inhibit the action of either party.”

By 2018, the NSSF had a landing page for its partnership with the AFSP. Most suicide deaths involved a firearm, the program’s materials emphasized, because the presence of a gun almost guarantees that the attempt will be successful. In an introductory video, Sanetti described the deadly urge as often “spur-of-the-moment.” He ended his monologue with a simple statement of fact: “Temporarily preventing a person in crisis from accessing a firearm can help save lives.”

Sanetti was nodding toward a concept known as “means restriction.” If people are jumping off bridges, for instance, then the government builds barriers to prevent those deaths. Such solutions tend to work when they are externally imposed. But the NSSF and AFSP would not jointly recommend anything that could be construed as “gun control.” Instead, an AFSP spokesperson explained in an email, the two groups were “providing practical and accessible suicide prevention education.” The website suggested separately storing ammunition and firearms, which should be kept in safes or lockboxes. If more drastic measures were deemed necessary, the organizations said that “temporary off-site storage” was an option to “consider.” They were advocating for a do-it-yourself approach to a deeply complicated societal problem.

For the NSSF, it was still bold to acknowledge that separating someone from their firearm might be the key to survival. But a 2018 study funded by the group illustrates why it might have been—and likely remains—difficult for the industry to push for more forceful solutions. The NSSF surveyed gun owners who often carried concealed firearms, 81 percent of whom disclosed that they always kept a loaded one close by. “The more frequently a person carries a firearm,” the study found, “the more they spend on handguns, ammunition and carry equipment and accessories.” On average, respondents owned more than 10 guns. Roughly 80 percent of the participants were white men.

Adams Carvalho for The Atlantic

Jenn Jacques began working with Bob Owens in 2015. When she contacted him to ask if there might be a job for her at Bearing Arms, she was running a website for female gun owners. She’d been reading Owens’s writing for years; she admired his boldness and intelligence. Owens was working seven days a week, starting at six in the morning and often ending at 10 at night. Bearing Arms brought Jacques on as a volunteer at first, but after a year made her a full-time, salaried employee.

Owens and Jacques were each required to write seven posts a day if they wanted weekends off. Owens usually sat on a recliner in the living room, facing a window with a view of the woods. “We used to call him Barcalounger Bob,” Jacques told me.

By 2016, Owens had become a central voice in the gun-rights movement, regularly giving interviews on NRATV, which was then one of the gun group’s media platforms. “Bob was under so much pressure,” Christine told me. “The company always wanted more out of him. Always more, more, more.” She took care of the children while Owens was consumed by work. “When I think about it now,” Christine said, “I think Bob liked to look out the window because nature soothed him, calmed his nerves.”

Toward the end of 2016, the parent company of Bearing Arms asked Owens if he would like to write a book—something akin to a gun guide—that the company would publish through Regnery, its publishing house. He wasn’t offered a large sum, but the family needed extra money. Owens also held out hope that the book might lead to an opportunity to write a novel, so he agreed.

In January, Jacques and Owens attended the 2017 SHOT Show, the NSSF’s annual trade event in Las Vegas. Christine Moutier, the AFSP’s chief medical officer, was there to discuss her group’s partnership with the NSSF. She sat for an interview with Jacques, which Owens filmed. It was an intimate, polite chat. Jacques, in a neat striped shirt, sat close to Moutier. “What are a few of the signs of suicide?” Jacques asked. “Even those people who are presenting the strong happy face will show signs without intending to,” Moutier said. They might self-isolate, or become “more short-fused.” In the brief conversation, Moutier did not cover means restriction or the potential danger of keeping guns in the house.

Back home, as Owens worked on his manuscript, Christine noticed that he seemed newly moody. He started smoking, a habit he had dropped years earlier. He would get worked up about tiny things in a way he never had, snapping at Christine if she forgot something at the store. When he was frustrated, he’d say, “I have to go for a walk.” “He was always walking because everything was just irritating him,” Christine said.

Christine tried to reassure her husband that life would get easier when his book was finished. “I just kept saying, ‘You’re almost done. When this is done, you can relax.’” He was experiencing symptoms of depression. Christine asked him to see a therapist, and he did. He tried medication for about a week, but stopped taking it because he thought it made him feel worse.

To his readers, though, Owens was the same man he’d always been. That spring, he ran stories with headlines such as “Another Good Guy With a Gun: Detroit Man Shoots Sister’s Violent Stalker,” and “Armed Good Samaritan Runs Off Terrified Robber.” The NRA’s annual meeting—the one both Jacques and Owens attended in Atlanta—was in late April. Owens tweeted a photo of a revolver and ammo. “This is the Ruger LCR I’m carrying at #NRAAM2017,” he wrote.

On Friday, May 5, after Owens had returned from the event, Christine and Kate left for a Girl Scouts camping trip. Owens was “acting funny,” Christine said. “He was constantly texting to see how we were doing, and would get worried if I didn’t respond right away. I kept telling him, ‘We’re fine, we’re fine, but we’re out doing things.’” She noted that Owens was effusive, almost manic. “He was saying that I was the best wife, the best woman, and that when we got home, he would be the husband I deserve and things would change. He promised to cook us a steak dinner.”

On Sunday, Owens tweeted a meme featuring a heavily tattooed man and a little boy. Each had a speech bubble coming from his mouth. “Dad,” the boy says, “when I become a man, I want to be a Liberal.” The father responds, “Well, you have to choose one son. You can’t be both.” Owens added: “I admit it. I laughed.” That evening, after Christine and Kate returned, Owens grilled steak for the family. Everybody ate, and then he and Christine stayed up late into the night, discussing a possible winter trip to Las Vegas. His book was due in three days.

The following morning, Owens placed his cigarettes, Altoids, pepper spray, knife, phone, and wallet in his pockets. The holster clipped to his belt held the same revolver he’d carried a week earlier at the NRA’s annual meeting. He walked Kate to the school-bus stop and watched her board.

Owens had a few hours before he had to drive to Wake Tech Community College to pick up his older daughter, Maya, who was taking a final. So he kept walking. As he made his way down Sequoia Ridge Drive, he caught the attention of a neighbor, a woman who didn’t know him but was struck by the way he was hanging his head. That man, she thought, seems remarkably sad.

Eventually, Owens arrived at the intersection of Sequoia and South Judd Parkway, not far from his house. Cars whipped by rows of well-kept shrubs. Owens pulled out his phone to post a message on Facebook. “In the end, it turns out that I’m not strong,” he wrote. “I’m a coward, and a selfish son of a bitch. I’m sorry.”

When her father didn’t show up to get her, Maya tried calling. She couldn’t reach him, so she contacted her mom and explained that she was stranded. It was unlike Owens not to show.   

A 39-year-old Iraq War veteran drove by the corner of Sequoia and Judd. He noticed Owens lying in the grass, bleeding from a gunshot wound in the head. The vet parked and ran over. He felt for a pulse that was not there, then dialed 911.

Police told Christine what had happened. She was too distraught to drive home, so two detectives, along with Christine’s father, went to meet her. News of Owens’s death began to trickle out that evening. Jacques wrote on Facebook, “Life as I knew it ended this morning. It was a privilege and an honor to call Bob Owens my friend, co-editor and work hubby, so please know that I will do everything in my power to protect him in death as I did in life.” The next day, Jacques published a short post about Owens on Bearing Arms, but she did not disclose how he died. She wrote, “In the end, all that matters is [he] will be sorely missed, and the truth is that we will never know what truly happened.”

Owens’s employers at Townhall Media, which owns Bearing Arms and did not respond to a request for comment, sent Christine a condolence email and flowers. They also set up a GoFundMe page announcing that they’d “lost a friend,” soliciting donations from the public to help support Owens’s family. “We’d like to show our love and appreciation for Bob,” the page said. “Groceries, bills and college dreams will be a struggle—but we can help.” The campaign raised more than $36,000 from 608 donors. No Townhall executives attended her husband’s funeral. (On behalf of Owens’s mother and siblings, his father declined to comment for this article, citing his support for the Second Amendment.)

Jacques does not think the gun industry holds any responsibility for Bob’s death, or for gun suicide in general. “It really is a shame people may not be as comfortable reaching out for help because we’re attacked by the gun-control movement,” Jacques told me. Gutowski, the journalist who was friends with Owens, said that many gun owners are afraid to tell doctors about their mental-health struggles, because they worry someone will take their weapons away.

It’s been seven years since the AFSP and the NSSF announced their partnership, and more Americans are dying of gun suicide than ever before. The coronavirus pandemic and the summer 2020 protests after the murder of George Floyd spurred people to buy firearms in record-breaking numbers. In 2022, according to CDC data, there were 27,000 gun suicides, the highest number ever recorded in the United States. According to an analysis by Cassandra Crifasi, an associate professor of health policy and management at Johns Hopkins University, white men still make up nearly 80 percent of these deaths. “The risk typically starts to peak when they reach their mid-40s,” she said. Owens was 46 when he died.

In 2021, the NSSF, which declined to provide a comment for this story, hosted a webinar on suicide prevention for gun-range operators and firearms dealers. Two gregarious consultants—John “JB” Bocker and John “JC” Clark—ran the presentation. They ticked through the signs of depression, and gave some guidance on how to predict when a customer might be suicidal.

“How does your most common customer come into the store?” Clark asked. “They’re excited, right? They’re going to buy their first firearm, or they’re going to buy a new firearm, or something new to the market. Or they want to receive training. They’re excited about it. They have a certain amount of energy. So when you compare the atypical customer to these different scenarios, then you may have a situation where somebody is in crisis, where somebody needs help.” He continued, “Moving, speaking slowly, restlessness—all of these things could be signs you need to be aware of.”

“And, JC, we can’t forget understanding basic body language,” Bocker chimed in. “It may not always be verbal. It may not always be their direct approach about buying or not buying a gun. It just might be their quietness; it might be the way they’re looking or not looking.” He added, “Everything about their body language can be a telltale hint to them wanting to do something they shouldn’t do with a firearm.”

Bocker and Clark declined to be interviewed for this story. At my request, Amanda Spray, a clinical associate professor of psychiatry at NYU’s Grossman School of Medicine, reviewed a recording of their presentation. “Untrained individuals would find it very difficult to predict who is experiencing suicidal ideation,” she told me. She called the approach, with its inherent conflicts between sales and public health, “extremely unrealistic.”

Not long ago, I visited Christine in North Carolina and spent a day in the Owenses’ old neighborhood in Fuquay-Varina. The homes and lawns were meticulously maintained. Driveways had basketball hoops, and rocking chairs sat on porches. There were decorative signs with welcoming messages. One said Home on the Range. Another said Sit Relax Gossip.

Other than his Facebook post, Bob had not left a note. At the time of his death, Christine felt as though she were in a kind of limbo. She was desperate for clues and answers. She could not get into his phone, and Bob’s therapist could not divulge any details about her husband’s treatment. “Why didn’t he come to me?” Christine wondered. “We always worked it out, always worked through things. We worked on them together, always.”

One day, soon after Bob died, Christine opened his work bag and found a notebook. In it was a list: “Things That Are Stressing Me Out.” It stretched on for seven or eight pages, mentioning death threats, which were news to Christine, as were Bob’s concerns about his aging parents. A lot of it was familiar, just laid out at length. “So much about his job,” Christine described to me, “the book, things that were going on with the kids, being the provider.” She realized she hadn’t known the extent of his stress. “Bob really felt like he was stuck and didn’t know where to go,” she said.

Christine doesn’t view Bob’s suicide as a cautionary tale about gun ownership, and she does not think anyone else should view it that way, either. She herself carries a firearm when she goes out of town, in case her car breaks down. One day, while we were eating lunch at a Japanese restaurant, I asked if she was aware that gun suicide, according to the data, seemed to pose a unique threat to men like her husband. She set down her fork and folded her arms. “I know,” Christine said, but she believes the real problem is that so many boys are raised to equate vulnerability with weakness. “I don’t think it’s about guns. I think it’s about men and their feelings—they’re still bad at dealing with them.”

Bob, she said, wanted to take care of the people around him. Like many men, she went on, “he had to be tough.” She thinks her husband would have found a way to kill himself no matter what. “Besides,” she said, “how would I have kept Bob away from guns?”

This article is a collaboration between The Atlantic and The Trace. When you buy a book using a link on this page, we receive a commission. Thank you for supporting The Atlantic.